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政治·ガザ

3月31日までに新しい国がエイブラハム合意に加わるでしょうか？

Market icon
政治·ガザ

3月31日までに新しい国がエイブラハム合意に加わるでしょうか？

Jan 1

Jan 1

Jan 1

Jan 1

はい

1% chance
Polymarket

$202,549 Vol.

はい

1% chance
Polymarket

$202,549 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already apart of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.With just three days remaining until the March 31 deadline, traders price a 98.6% implied probability on "No" new country joining the Abraham Accords, reflecting the absence of any official announcements, diplomatic breakthroughs, or credible reports of imminent normalization agreements from potential candidates like Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, or African states such as Somaliland. Recent defense-tech cooperation among existing signatories—Israel, UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, and Kazakhstan (which joined in November 2025)—signals deepening ties but falls short of formal expansion amid ongoing regional tensions, including Iran-backed conflicts and Gaza-related hesitations. This skin-in-the-game consensus underscores high barriers to rapid diplomatic shifts; only a surprise bilateral declaration or summit outcome could alter resolution, though no such signals have emerged.

With just three days remaining until the March 31 deadline, traders price a 98.6% implied probability on "No" new country joining the Abraham Accords, reflecting the absence of any official announcements, diplomatic breakthroughs, or credible reports of imminent normalization agreements from potential candidates like Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, or African states such as Somaliland. Recent defense-tech cooperation among existing signatories—Israel, UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, and Kazakhstan (which joined in November 2025)—signals deepening ties but falls short of formal expansion amid ongoing regional tensions, including Iran-backed conflicts and Gaza-related hesitations. This skin-in-the-game consensus underscores high barriers to rapid diplomatic shifts; only a surprise bilateral declaration or summit outcome could alter resolution, though no such signals have emerged.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already apart of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.With just three days remaining until the March 31 deadline, traders price a 98.6% implied probability on "No" new country joining the Abraham Accords, reflecting the absence of any official announcements, diplomatic breakthroughs, or credible reports of imminent normalization agreements from potential candidates like Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, or African states such as Somaliland. Recent defense-tech cooperation among existing signatories—Israel, UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, and Kazakhstan (which joined in November 2025)—signals deepening ties but falls short of formal expansion amid ongoing regional tensions, including Iran-backed conflicts and Gaza-related hesitations. This skin-in-the-game consensus underscores high barriers to rapid diplomatic shifts; only a surprise bilateral declaration or summit outcome could alter resolution, though no such signals have emerged.

With just three days remaining until the March 31 deadline, traders price a 98.6% implied probability on "No" new country joining the Abraham Accords, reflecting the absence of any official announcements, diplomatic breakthroughs, or credible reports of imminent normalization agreements from potential candidates like Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, or African states such as Somaliland. Recent defense-tech cooperation among existing signatories—Israel, UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, and Kazakhstan (which joined in November 2025)—signals deepening ties but falls short of formal expansion amid ongoing regional tensions, including Iran-backed conflicts and Gaza-related hesitations. This skin-in-the-game consensus underscores high barriers to rapid diplomatic shifts; only a surprise bilateral declaration or summit outcome could alter resolution, though no such signals have emerged.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「3月31日までに新しい国がエイブラハム合意に加わるでしょうか？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「2024年3月31日までに新しい国がアブラハム合意に加わるでしょうか？」で1%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、1¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に1%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

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これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「3月31日までに新しい国がエイブラハム合意に加わるでしょうか？」の現在のリーダーは「2024年3月31日までに新しい国がアブラハム合意に加わるでしょうか？」でわずか1%です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

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