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世界·Hamas

イスラエルは2026年6月30日までにガザを併合するか？

Market icon
世界·Hamas

イスラエルは2026年6月30日までにガザを併合するか？

はい

5% chance
Polymarket

$82,034 Vol.

はい

5% chance
Polymarket

$82,034 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the Gaza Strip that they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation. Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law. Instances where Israeli settlers claim administrative control over land in the Gaza Strip without formal annexation will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that Israel will not annex Gaza territory by June 30, 2026, driven by the absence of any official Israeli government announcements, cabinet approvals, or legislative moves toward Gaza sovereignty claims in recent months. Despite accelerated West Bank land registrations as state property and settlement expansions—condemned internationally as de facto annexation—Israeli policy explicitly disavows territorial ambitions in Gaza, emphasizing temporary security buffers or demilitarization post-conflict rather than permanent incorporation. Recent Netanyahu statements focus on airstrikes against Iranian proxies in Lebanon and Syria, with no Gaza annexation signals amid ongoing military operations. Scenarios like a decisive Hamas defeat, far-right coalition shifts, or U.S. policy changes under Trump could theoretically elevate odds, though diplomatic and demographic barriers remain substantial hurdles within the three-month window.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that Israel will not annex Gaza territory by June 30, 2026, driven by the absence of any official Israeli government announcements, cabinet approvals, or legislative moves toward Gaza sovereignty claims in recent months. Despite accelerated West Bank land registrations as state property and settlement expansions—condemned internationally as de facto annexation—Israeli policy explicitly disavows territorial ambitions in Gaza, emphasizing temporary security buffers or demilitarization post-conflict rather than permanent incorporation. Recent Netanyahu statements focus on airstrikes against Iranian proxies in Lebanon and Syria, with no Gaza annexation signals amid ongoing military operations. Scenarios like a decisive Hamas defeat, far-right coalition shifts, or U.S. policy changes under Trump could theoretically elevate odds, though diplomatic and demographic barriers remain substantial hurdles within the three-month window.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the Gaza Strip that they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation. Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law. Instances where Israeli settlers claim administrative control over land in the Gaza Strip without formal annexation will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that Israel will not annex Gaza territory by June 30, 2026, driven by the absence of any official Israeli government announcements, cabinet approvals, or legislative moves toward Gaza sovereignty claims in recent months. Despite accelerated West Bank land registrations as state property and settlement expansions—condemned internationally as de facto annexation—Israeli policy explicitly disavows territorial ambitions in Gaza, emphasizing temporary security buffers or demilitarization post-conflict rather than permanent incorporation. Recent Netanyahu statements focus on airstrikes against Iranian proxies in Lebanon and Syria, with no Gaza annexation signals amid ongoing military operations. Scenarios like a decisive Hamas defeat, far-right coalition shifts, or U.S. policy changes under Trump could theoretically elevate odds, though diplomatic and demographic barriers remain substantial hurdles within the three-month window.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that Israel will not annex Gaza territory by June 30, 2026, driven by the absence of any official Israeli government announcements, cabinet approvals, or legislative moves toward Gaza sovereignty claims in recent months. Despite accelerated West Bank land registrations as state property and settlement expansions—condemned internationally as de facto annexation—Israeli policy explicitly disavows territorial ambitions in Gaza, emphasizing temporary security buffers or demilitarization post-conflict rather than permanent incorporation. Recent Netanyahu statements focus on airstrikes against Iranian proxies in Lebanon and Syria, with no Gaza annexation signals amid ongoing military operations. Scenarios like a decisive Hamas defeat, far-right coalition shifts, or U.S. policy changes under Trump could theoretically elevate odds, though diplomatic and demographic barriers remain substantial hurdles within the three-month window.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「イスラエルは2026年6月30日までにガザを併合するか？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「イスラエルは2026年6月30日までにガザの領土を併合しますか？」で5%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、5¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に5%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「イスラエルは2026年6月30日までにガザを併合するか？」は$82Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Oct 15, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「イスラエルは2026年6月30日までにガザを併合するか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「イスラエルは2026年6月30日までにガザを併合するか？」の現在のリーダーは「イスラエルは2026年6月30日までにガザの領土を併合しますか？」でわずか5%です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「イスラエルは2026年6月30日までにガザを併合するか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。