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地政学·イスラエル

イスラエルは2027年までにヨルダン川西岸の領土を併合するか？

Market icon
地政学·イスラエル

イスラエルは2027年までにヨルダン川西岸の領土を併合するか？

Dec 31

Dec 31

はい

12% chance
Polymarket

$49,865 Vol.

はい

12% chance
Polymarket

$49,865 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the West Bank by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the West Bank they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation. Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land in the West Bank without a formal annexation will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 88.5% for Israel annexing West Bank territory before 2027, driven by the distinction between recent de facto measures and formal sovereignty claims. In February 2026, Israel's security cabinet approved land registration across Area C—60% of the West Bank—as state property and eased settlement barriers, prompting UN reports on March 17 of accelerated unlawful expansion and condemnation from nearly 20 countries as de facto annexation. Yet, official statements emphasize "de facto sovereignty" without legal annexation, amid persistent U.S. opposition under the Trump administration, prior Netanyahu concessions to diplomatic pressure in 2025, and diversion of focus to Gaza operations and regional threats. Formal steps face high barriers from international backlash and coalition dynamics, with no imminent legislative push signaled.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 88.5% for Israel annexing West Bank territory before 2027, driven by the distinction between recent de facto measures and formal sovereignty claims. In February 2026, Israel's security cabinet approved land registration across Area C—60% of the West Bank—as state property and eased settlement barriers, prompting UN reports on March 17 of accelerated unlawful expansion and condemnation from nearly 20 countries as de facto annexation. Yet, official statements emphasize "de facto sovereignty" without legal annexation, amid persistent U.S. opposition under the Trump administration, prior Netanyahu concessions to diplomatic pressure in 2025, and diversion of focus to Gaza operations and regional threats. Formal steps face high barriers from international backlash and coalition dynamics, with no imminent legislative push signaled.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the West Bank by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the West Bank they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation. Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land in the West Bank without a formal annexation will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 88.5% for Israel annexing West Bank territory before 2027, driven by the distinction between recent de facto measures and formal sovereignty claims. In February 2026, Israel's security cabinet approved land registration across Area C—60% of the West Bank—as state property and eased settlement barriers, prompting UN reports on March 17 of accelerated unlawful expansion and condemnation from nearly 20 countries as de facto annexation. Yet, official statements emphasize "de facto sovereignty" without legal annexation, amid persistent U.S. opposition under the Trump administration, prior Netanyahu concessions to diplomatic pressure in 2025, and diversion of focus to Gaza operations and regional threats. Formal steps face high barriers from international backlash and coalition dynamics, with no imminent legislative push signaled.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 88.5% for Israel annexing West Bank territory before 2027, driven by the distinction between recent de facto measures and formal sovereignty claims. In February 2026, Israel's security cabinet approved land registration across Area C—60% of the West Bank—as state property and eased settlement barriers, prompting UN reports on March 17 of accelerated unlawful expansion and condemnation from nearly 20 countries as de facto annexation. Yet, official statements emphasize "de facto sovereignty" without legal annexation, amid persistent U.S. opposition under the Trump administration, prior Netanyahu concessions to diplomatic pressure in 2025, and diversion of focus to Gaza operations and regional threats. Formal steps face high barriers from international backlash and coalition dynamics, with no imminent legislative push signaled.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

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