Ongoing negotiations over Hamas disarmament and Israeli withdrawals have left implementation of the US-backed Gaza ceasefire plan stalled a year after its October 2025 start, with the International Stabilization Force yet to deploy despite pledges from Morocco, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, and others. Israel continues targeted strikes and maintains control over roughly two-thirds of the territory, while reconstruction remains minimal and a new Palestinian administration has not entered Gaza. Trader consensus near even odds on foreign intervention by December 31, 2026, reflects uncertainty over sequencing disputes and logistical hurdles. The UN Security Council vote on a US-drafted resolution authorizing the force, scheduled for October 12, represents a key near-term catalyst that could clarify deployment timelines or expose further veto risks and delays.