Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 63.5% probability of Greta Thunberg facing arrest by June 30, reflecting her track record of civil disobedience during climate and pro-Palestine protests, which has resulted in over a dozen prior detentions across Europe. The dominant recent driver remains her June 9 participation in a Gaza-bound aid flotilla intercepted by Israeli naval forces, leading to brief detention, interrogation, and deportation—highlighting her ongoing direct-action tactics amid the Israel-Hamas conflict. Absent new official announcements of planned demonstrations, traders weigh her history against the two-week window, where unannounced protests could prompt police intervention, as seen in past blockades and sit-ins.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$38,900 Vol.
$38,900 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
はい
$38,900 Vol.
$38,900 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greta Thunberg is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 63.5% probability of Greta Thunberg facing arrest by June 30, reflecting her track record of civil disobedience during climate and pro-Palestine protests, which has resulted in over a dozen prior detentions across Europe. The dominant recent driver remains her June 9 participation in a Gaza-bound aid flotilla intercepted by Israeli naval forces, leading to brief detention, interrogation, and deportation—highlighting her ongoing direct-action tactics amid the Israel-Hamas conflict. Absent new official announcements of planned demonstrations, traders weigh her history against the two-week window, where unannounced protests could prompt police intervention, as seen in past blockades and sit-ins.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greta Thunberg is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Feb 12, 2026, 3:01 PM ET
音量
$38,900終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 12, 2026, 3:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greta Thunberg is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 63.5% probability of Greta Thunberg facing arrest by June 30, reflecting her track record of civil disobedience during climate and pro-Palestine protests, which has resulted in over a dozen prior detentions across Europe. The dominant recent driver remains her June 9 participation in a Gaza-bound aid flotilla intercepted by Israeli naval forces, leading to brief detention, interrogation, and deportation—highlighting her ongoing direct-action tactics amid the Israel-Hamas conflict. Absent new official announcements of planned demonstrations, traders weigh her history against the two-week window, where unannounced protests could prompt police intervention, as seen in past blockades and sit-ins.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greta Thunberg is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$38,900終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 12, 2026, 3:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 63.5% probability of Greta Thunberg facing arrest by June 30, reflecting her track record of civil disobedience during climate and pro-Palestine protests, which has resulted in over a dozen prior detentions across Europe. The dominant recent driver remains her June 9 participation in a Gaza-bound aid flotilla intercepted by Israeli naval forces, leading to brief detention, interrogation, and deportation—highlighting her ongoing direct-action tactics amid the Israel-Hamas conflict. Absent new official announcements of planned demonstrations, traders weigh her history against the two-week window, where unannounced protests could prompt police intervention, as seen in past blockades and sit-ins.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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