Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 0-10 ships as the average daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz at end of March 2026, driven by verified maritime tracking data confirming a near-total collapse amid the ongoing Iran conflict. Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) restrictions, including tolled passages and threats of attacks following U.S.-Israeli strikes in late February, slashed traffic from pre-war averages of 120-138 vessels per day to roughly 7 overall in March, with single-digit figures like four on March 24 and minimal crossings late-month per Lloyd's List Intelligence and Windward.ai AIS reports. This 95% drop reflects deterrence from drone strikes, seizures, and heightened risks, rerouting global energy shipments. Scenarios challenging this include revised data from underreported transits, sudden diplomatic de-escalation, or U.S.-led naval escorts boosting flows, though military escalation signals make reopening improbable soon.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日0〜10 99.6%
10～20 <1%
20〜30 <1%
40～50 <1%
$1,606,662 Vol.
$1,606,662 Vol.
2026/03/31
0〜10
100%
10～20
1%
20〜30
<1%
30～40
<1%
40～50
<1%
50〜60
<1%
60以上
<1%
0〜10 99.6%
10～20 <1%
20〜30 <1%
40～50 <1%
$1,606,662 Vol.
$1,606,662 Vol.
2026/03/31
0〜10
$489,077 Vol.
100%
10～20
$294,080 Vol.
1%
20〜30
$126,383 Vol.
<1%
30～40
$293,672 Vol.
<1%
40～50
$222,040 Vol.
<1%
50〜60
$88,771 Vol.
<1%
60以上
$92,639 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 0-10 ships as the average daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz at end of March 2026, driven by verified maritime tracking data confirming a near-total collapse amid the ongoing Iran conflict. Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) restrictions, including tolled passages and threats of attacks following U.S.-Israeli strikes in late February, slashed traffic from pre-war averages of 120-138 vessels per day to roughly 7 overall in March, with single-digit figures like four on March 24 and minimal crossings late-month per Lloyd's List Intelligence and Windward.ai AIS reports. This 95% drop reflects deterrence from drone strikes, seizures, and heightened risks, rerouting global energy shipments. Scenarios challenging this include revised data from underreported transits, sudden diplomatic de-escalation, or U.S.-led naval escorts boosting flows, though military escalation signals make reopening improbable soon.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
マーケット開始日： Mar 9, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
音量
$1,606,662終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 9, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 0-10 ships as the average daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz at end of March 2026, driven by verified maritime tracking data confirming a near-total collapse amid the ongoing Iran conflict. Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) restrictions, including tolled passages and threats of attacks following U.S.-Israeli strikes in late February, slashed traffic from pre-war averages of 120-138 vessels per day to roughly 7 overall in March, with single-digit figures like four on March 24 and minimal crossings late-month per Lloyd's List Intelligence and Windward.ai AIS reports. This 95% drop reflects deterrence from drone strikes, seizures, and heightened risks, rerouting global energy shipments. Scenarios challenging this include revised data from underreported transits, sudden diplomatic de-escalation, or U.S.-led naval escorts boosting flows, though military escalation signals make reopening improbable soon.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
音量
$1,606,662終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 9, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 0-10 ships as the average daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz at end of March 2026, driven by verified maritime tracking data confirming a near-total collapse amid the ongoing Iran conflict. Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) restrictions, including tolled passages and threats of attacks following U.S.-Israeli strikes in late February, slashed traffic from pre-war averages of 120-138 vessels per day to roughly 7 overall in March, with single-digit figures like four on March 24 and minimal crossings late-month per Lloyd's List Intelligence and Windward.ai AIS reports. This 95% drop reflects deterrence from drone strikes, seizures, and heightened risks, rerouting global energy shipments. Scenarios challenging this include revised data from underreported transits, sudden diplomatic de-escalation, or U.S.-led naval escorts boosting flows, though military escalation signals make reopening improbable soon.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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