Amid the ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran since late February 2026, Iranian forces have imposed a de facto blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, collapsing daily ship transits from a historical average of around 138 vessels to near zero, per maritime intelligence tracking AIS-confirmed crossings. Recent data shows only four vessels on March 24, seven commercial ships over March 25-26, and sporadic allowances for select Pakistani or Chinese-flagged ships, keeping end-of-March averages firmly in the 0-10 range as traders price in IRGC threats, stalled queues of nearly 2,000 vessels, and surging war-risk premiums. This commanding trader consensus could shift via a ceasefire, broader diplomatic safe-passage deals, or US naval actions to reopen the chokepoint.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日0〜10 98.0%
10～20 1.5%
60以上 <1%
20〜30 <1%
$1,571,312 Vol.
$1,571,312 Vol.
2026/03/31
0〜10
98%
10～20
1%
20〜30
<1%
30～40
<1%
40～50
<1%
50〜60
<1%
60以上
<1%
0〜10 98.0%
10～20 1.5%
60以上 <1%
20〜30 <1%
$1,571,312 Vol.
$1,571,312 Vol.
2026/03/31
0〜10
$472,110 Vol.
98%
10～20
$290,511 Vol.
1%
20〜30
$115,226 Vol.
<1%
30～40
$293,655 Vol.
<1%
40～50
$220,881 Vol.
<1%
50〜60
$88,766 Vol.
<1%
60以上
$90,164 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid the ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran since late February 2026, Iranian forces have imposed a de facto blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, collapsing daily ship transits from a historical average of around 138 vessels to near zero, per maritime intelligence tracking AIS-confirmed crossings. Recent data shows only four vessels on March 24, seven commercial ships over March 25-26, and sporadic allowances for select Pakistani or Chinese-flagged ships, keeping end-of-March averages firmly in the 0-10 range as traders price in IRGC threats, stalled queues of nearly 2,000 vessels, and surging war-risk premiums. This commanding trader consensus could shift via a ceasefire, broader diplomatic safe-passage deals, or US naval actions to reopen the chokepoint.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
マーケット開始日： Mar 9, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
音量
$1,571,312終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 9, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid the ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran since late February 2026, Iranian forces have imposed a de facto blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, collapsing daily ship transits from a historical average of around 138 vessels to near zero, per maritime intelligence tracking AIS-confirmed crossings. Recent data shows only four vessels on March 24, seven commercial ships over March 25-26, and sporadic allowances for select Pakistani or Chinese-flagged ships, keeping end-of-March averages firmly in the 0-10 range as traders price in IRGC threats, stalled queues of nearly 2,000 vessels, and surging war-risk premiums. This commanding trader consensus could shift via a ceasefire, broader diplomatic safe-passage deals, or US naval actions to reopen the chokepoint.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
音量
$1,571,312終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 9, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Amid the ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran since late February 2026, Iranian forces have imposed a de facto blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, collapsing daily ship transits from a historical average of around 138 vessels to near zero, per maritime intelligence tracking AIS-confirmed crossings. Recent data shows only four vessels on March 24, seven commercial ships over March 25-26, and sporadic allowances for select Pakistani or Chinese-flagged ships, keeping end-of-March averages firmly in the 0-10 range as traders price in IRGC threats, stalled queues of nearly 2,000 vessels, and surging war-risk premiums. This commanding trader consensus could shift via a ceasefire, broader diplomatic safe-passage deals, or US naval actions to reopen the chokepoint.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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