Escalating Iran-Israel tensions have driven Polymarket trader consensus to an 78% implied probability of just 0-10 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 3, as shipping operators halt voyages amid threats of closure. Israel's April 1 airstrike on Iran's Syrian consulate prompted Tehran to warn of retaliation, spurring major carriers to divert or pause Gulf routes, with automatic identification system (AIS) data showing tanker traffic plunging over 50% in the prior 48 hours. The 18.5% odds on 10-20 vessels reflect residual optimism for partial resumption, while higher bins languish below 2% absent de-escalation. Resolution imminent today, any Iranian naval moves could further compress volumes and spike oil futures volatility.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日0-10 78%
10-20 18%
20-30 1.7%
50-60 <1%
$19,467 Vol.
$19,467 Vol.
Apr 3, 2026
0-10
78%
10-20
18%
20-30
2%
30-40
<1%
40-50
<1%
50-60
1%
60+
1%
0-10 78%
10-20 18%
20-30 1.7%
50-60 <1%
$19,467 Vol.
$19,467 Vol.
Apr 3, 2026
0-10
$3,769 Vol.
78%
10-20
$4,731 Vol.
18%
20-30
$2,994 Vol.
2%
30-40
$2,087 Vol.
<1%
40-50
$2,327 Vol.
<1%
50-60
$1,771 Vol.
1%
60+
$1,787 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Escalating Iran-Israel tensions have driven Polymarket trader consensus to an 78% implied probability of just 0-10 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 3, as shipping operators halt voyages amid threats of closure. Israel's April 1 airstrike on Iran's Syrian consulate prompted Tehran to warn of retaliation, spurring major carriers to divert or pause Gulf routes, with automatic identification system (AIS) data showing tanker traffic plunging over 50% in the prior 48 hours. The 18.5% odds on 10-20 vessels reflect residual optimism for partial resumption, while higher bins languish below 2% absent de-escalation. Resolution imminent today, any Iranian naval moves could further compress volumes and spike oil futures volatility.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 1:02 PM ET
音量
$19,467終了日
Apr 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 1:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Escalating Iran-Israel tensions have driven Polymarket trader consensus to an 78% implied probability of just 0-10 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 3, as shipping operators halt voyages amid threats of closure. Israel's April 1 airstrike on Iran's Syrian consulate prompted Tehran to warn of retaliation, spurring major carriers to divert or pause Gulf routes, with automatic identification system (AIS) data showing tanker traffic plunging over 50% in the prior 48 hours. The 18.5% odds on 10-20 vessels reflect residual optimism for partial resumption, while higher bins languish below 2% absent de-escalation. Resolution imminent today, any Iranian naval moves could further compress volumes and spike oil futures volatility.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
音量
$19,467終了日
Apr 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 1:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Escalating Iran-Israel tensions have driven Polymarket trader consensus to an 78% implied probability of just 0-10 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 3, as shipping operators halt voyages amid threats of closure. Israel's April 1 airstrike on Iran's Syrian consulate prompted Tehran to warn of retaliation, spurring major carriers to divert or pause Gulf routes, with automatic identification system (AIS) data showing tanker traffic plunging over 50% in the prior 48 hours. The 18.5% odds on 10-20 vessels reflect residual optimism for partial resumption, while higher bins languish below 2% absent de-escalation. Resolution imminent today, any Iranian naval moves could further compress volumes and spike oil futures volatility.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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