Putin maintains firm control over Russia’s security services and military command through expanded surveillance, treason prosecutions, and loyalty mechanisms, limiting space for coordinated challenges despite reported elite frictions and declining poll numbers. Heightened Kremlin protocols since early 2026, including reduced public appearances and FSB focus on internal threats, have addressed concerns around figures like Sergei Shoigu without triggering visible plots. Ukraine-linked strikes on Russian targets and economic strains from the war have fueled speculation but produced no organized opposition or mutiny comparable to the 2023 Prigozhin episode. Traders view these factors as reinforcing regime resilience through the remainder of the year.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日6% 確率
$131,207 Vol.
$131,207 Vol.
2026/12/31
6% 確率
$131,207 Vol.
$131,207 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin maintains firm control over Russia’s security services and military command through expanded surveillance, treason prosecutions, and loyalty mechanisms, limiting space for coordinated challenges despite reported elite frictions and declining poll numbers. Heightened Kremlin protocols since early 2026, including reduced public appearances and FSB focus on internal threats, have addressed concerns around figures like Sergei Shoigu without triggering visible plots. Ukraine-linked strikes on Russian targets and economic strains from the war have fueled speculation but produced no organized opposition or mutiny comparable to the 2023 Prigozhin episode. Traders view these factors as reinforcing regime resilience through the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
音量
$131,207終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin maintains firm control over Russia’s security services and military command through expanded surveillance, treason prosecutions, and loyalty mechanisms, limiting space for coordinated challenges despite reported elite frictions and declining poll numbers. Heightened Kremlin protocols since early 2026, including reduced public appearances and FSB focus on internal threats, have addressed concerns around figures like Sergei Shoigu without triggering visible plots. Ukraine-linked strikes on Russian targets and economic strains from the war have fueled speculation but produced no organized opposition or mutiny comparable to the 2023 Prigozhin episode. Traders view these factors as reinforcing regime resilience through the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$131,207終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Putin maintains firm control over Russia’s security services and military command through expanded surveillance, treason prosecutions, and loyalty mechanisms, limiting space for coordinated challenges despite reported elite frictions and declining poll numbers. Heightened Kremlin protocols since early 2026, including reduced public appearances and FSB focus on internal threats, have addressed concerns around figures like Sergei Shoigu without triggering visible plots. Ukraine-linked strikes on Russian targets and economic strains from the war have fueled speculation but produced no organized opposition or mutiny comparable to the 2023 Prigozhin episode. Traders view these factors as reinforcing regime resilience through the remainder of the year.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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