**Ongoing US military strikes targeting Iranian positions on Abu Musa Island in July 2026 have degraded military infrastructure but left Iranian control intact.** The island, seized by Iran in 1971 and long claimed by the UAE, remains a strategic Revolutionary Guard outpost overlooking the Strait of Hormuz. Despite UAE diplomatic pressure, GCC statements, and speculation about coalition action to secure the waterway, no territorial transfer has occurred. Trader probabilities stay low because altering on-the-ground sovereignty would require sustained military operations or negotiated handover amid active conflict, neither of which has materialized by early August. Further escalations or diplomatic breakthroughs before late-August resolution dates could shift assessments, though historical precedent favors continued Iranian administration absent major new developments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$86,674 Vol.
2026/08/31
8月31日
2%
$86,674 Vol.
8月31日
$80,006 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.**Ongoing US military strikes targeting Iranian positions on Abu Musa Island in July 2026 have degraded military infrastructure but left Iranian control intact.** The island, seized by Iran in 1971 and long claimed by the UAE, remains a strategic Revolutionary Guard outpost overlooking the Strait of Hormuz. Despite UAE diplomatic pressure, GCC statements, and speculation about coalition action to secure the waterway, no territorial transfer has occurred. Trader probabilities stay low because altering on-the-ground sovereignty would require sustained military operations or negotiated handover amid active conflict, neither of which has materialized by early August. Further escalations or diplomatic breakthroughs before late-August resolution dates could shift assessments, though historical precedent favors continued Iranian administration absent major new developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
音量
$86,674終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.**Ongoing US military strikes targeting Iranian positions on Abu Musa Island in July 2026 have degraded military infrastructure but left Iranian control intact.** The island, seized by Iran in 1971 and long claimed by the UAE, remains a strategic Revolutionary Guard outpost overlooking the Strait of Hormuz. Despite UAE diplomatic pressure, GCC statements, and speculation about coalition action to secure the waterway, no territorial transfer has occurred. Trader probabilities stay low because altering on-the-ground sovereignty would require sustained military operations or negotiated handover amid active conflict, neither of which has materialized by early August. Further escalations or diplomatic breakthroughs before late-August resolution dates could shift assessments, though historical precedent favors continued Iranian administration absent major new developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$86,674終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing US military strikes targeting Iranian positions on Abu Musa Island in July 2026 have degraded military infrastructure but left Iranian control intact.** The island, seized by Iran in 1971 and long claimed by the UAE, remains a strategic Revolutionary Guard outpost overlooking the Strait of Hormuz. Despite UAE diplomatic pressure, GCC statements, and speculation about coalition action to secure the waterway, no territorial transfer has occurred. Trader probabilities stay low because altering on-the-ground sovereignty would require sustained military operations or negotiated handover amid active conflict, neither of which has materialized by early August. Further escalations or diplomatic breakthroughs before late-August resolution dates could shift assessments, though historical precedent favors continued Iranian administration absent major new developments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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