With 37 Republican House incumbents now announced as not seeking re-election in 2026—including Rep. Sam Graves' retirement disclosure on March 27—traders price 40–43 non-runners at nearly 50% implied probability, reflecting a record-early pace that has already surpassed the full 2018 cycle's 34 GOP departures. This surge, exceeding historical averages by late March, stems from members pursuing Senate (nine Republicans) or gubernatorial bids (10), aging demographics, and mid-decade redistricting in six states, amid expectations of midterm losses for the president's party. Additional announcements are likely ahead of varied state primary filing deadlines through summer 2026, positioning 36–39 as the next-favored outcome while lower tallies fade.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHow many Republican House members not running in 2026?
How many Republican House members not running in 2026?
36–39 27.4%
28–31 8%
44+ 6.9%
32–35 6%
$50,052 Vol.
$50,052 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<24
5%
24–27
3%
28–31
8%
32–35
6%
36–39
28%
40–43
49%
44+
9%
36–39 27.4%
28–31 8%
44+ 6.9%
32–35 6%
$50,052 Vol.
$50,052 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<24
$3,590 Vol.
5%
24–27
$18,766 Vol.
3%
28–31
$21,214 Vol.
8%
32–35
$4,014 Vol.
6%
36–39
$2,468 Vol.
28%
40–43
$0 Vol.
49%
44+
$0 Vol.
9%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.With 37 Republican House incumbents now announced as not seeking re-election in 2026—including Rep. Sam Graves' retirement disclosure on March 27—traders price 40–43 non-runners at nearly 50% implied probability, reflecting a record-early pace that has already surpassed the full 2018 cycle's 34 GOP departures. This surge, exceeding historical averages by late March, stems from members pursuing Senate (nine Republicans) or gubernatorial bids (10), aging demographics, and mid-decade redistricting in six states, amid expectations of midterm losses for the president's party. Additional announcements are likely ahead of varied state primary filing deadlines through summer 2026, positioning 36–39 as the next-favored outcome while lower tallies fade.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$50,052End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.With 37 Republican House incumbents now announced as not seeking re-election in 2026—including Rep. Sam Graves' retirement disclosure on March 27—traders price 40–43 non-runners at nearly 50% implied probability, reflecting a record-early pace that has already surpassed the full 2018 cycle's 34 GOP departures. This surge, exceeding historical averages by late March, stems from members pursuing Senate (nine Republicans) or gubernatorial bids (10), aging demographics, and mid-decade redistricting in six states, amid expectations of midterm losses for the president's party. Additional announcements are likely ahead of varied state primary filing deadlines through summer 2026, positioning 36–39 as the next-favored outcome while lower tallies fade.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$50,052End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...With 37 Republican House incumbents now announced as not seeking re-election in 2026—including Rep. Sam Graves' retirement disclosure on March 27—traders price 40–43 non-runners at nearly 50% implied probability, reflecting a record-early pace that has already surpassed the full 2018 cycle's 34 GOP departures. This surge, exceeding historical averages by late March, stems from members pursuing Senate (nine Republicans) or gubernatorial bids (10), aging demographics, and mid-decade redistricting in six states, amid expectations of midterm losses for the president's party. Additional announcements are likely ahead of varied state primary filing deadlines through summer 2026, positioning 36–39 as the next-favored outcome while lower tallies fade.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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