South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner

Name: South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner
Start: 2025-09-15T19:58:35.807Z
End: 2026-06-09T00:00:00.000Z

Elections·US Election

South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner

Lindsey Graham 84%

Paul Dans 10%

Mark Lynch 6.7%

Thomas Murphy <1%

$30,550 Vol.

Jul 31, 2026

Lindsey Graham

$14,139 Vol.

84%

Paul Dans

$13,659 Vol.

10%

Mark Lynch

$2,752 Vol.

Thomas Murphy

$0 Vol.

<1%

Lindsey Graham 84%

Paul Dans 10%

Mark Lynch 6.7%

Thomas Murphy <1%

$30,550 Vol.

Jul 31, 2026

Lindsey Graham

$14,139 Vol.

84%

Paul Dans

$13,659 Vol.

10%

Mark Lynch

$2,752 Vol.

Thomas Murphy

$0 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina. If no 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Incumbent Sen. Lindsey Graham commands 83.5% trader consensus in the South Carolina Republican Senate primary market, reflecting his fundraising dominance—over $28 million cash on hand—and history of comfortable primary victories, including 60% in 2020 amid strong Trump ties despite occasional tensions. Paul Dans surged to 10% after announcing his bid on November 18 as Project 2025 executive director, targeting MAGA skeptics of Graham's establishment record on spending and foreign policy. Mark Lynch holds 6.7% with grassroots conservative backing as a local businessman, while Thomas Murphy trails at 0.3%. Absent polls, incumbency base rates (senators win primaries ~95% historically) and early filing period sustain Graham's lead, with more challengers possible before the June 2026 primary.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 26, 2026, 5:13 AM UTC

Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

26%

Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?

22%

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

48%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lindsey Graham" at 84%, followed by "Paul Dans" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 84¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner" has generated $30.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 15, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner" is "Lindsey Graham" at 84%, meaning the market assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Paul Dans" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $30.6K traded on “South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 84¢ for "Lindsey Graham" in the "South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 84% chance that "Lindsey Graham" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 84¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 16¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Jun 9, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner

South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner

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