In Alaska's open 2026 gubernatorial race, with incumbent Mike Dunleavy term-limited, recent polls like the Dittman Research survey (April 27–30) showing Democrat Tom Begich at 21% ahead of a fragmented Republican field—including Bernadette Wilson at 6%, David Bronson at 7%, and Click Bishop at 6%—underpin trader consensus favoring Begich at 33.5% implied probability. High undecideds (31%) and GOP vote-splitting among over a dozen candidates keep the nonpartisan top-four primary (August 18) competitive, advancing the race to ranked-choice voting general. Consolidation via endorsements or fundraising surges, especially post-June 1 filing deadline, or Begich momentum in swing voter blocs could create separation in this closely contested field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedContinued polling and political analysis confirm Treg Taylor’s weak position in the race amid strong competition from other Republicans and Democrats
Treg Taylor dips to 5%1%
Continued polling and political analysis confirm Treg Taylor’s weak position in the race amid strong competition from other Republicans and Democrats
Market
Click Bishop dips to 5%2%
Despite campaign efforts, Bishop’s chances remain limited amid a crowded field and strong opponents.
Dahlstrom officially announces gubernatorial campaign platform focusing on economy, public safety, and resource development, but market confidence continues to decline
Nancy Dahlstrom drops to 6%6%
Dahlstrom officially announces gubernatorial campaign platform focusing on economy, public safety, and resource development, but market confidence continues to decline
Poll released by Alaska Survey Research shows Wilson trailing Democrat Tom Begich 46‑54% in a final ranked‑choice round, prompting a modest pullback in her odds
Bernadette Wilson drops to 25%6%
Poll released by Alaska Survey Research shows Wilson trailing Democrat Tom Begich 46‑54% in a final ranked‑choice round, prompting a modest pullback in her odds
Alaska Republican Party District 6 endorses Bronson – The formal endorsement provided a brief lift, but the market quickly retreated as the overall field remained fragmented.
David Bronson dips to 11%3%
Alaska Republican Party District 6 endorses Bronson – The formal endorsement provided a brief lift, but the market quickly retreated as the overall field remained fragmented.
Alaska Republican Party District 6 officially endorses Wilson (alongside Bronson and Hughes), giving her a party‑base boost ahead of the primary
Bernadette Wilson jumps to 31%7%
Alaska Republican Party District 6 officially endorses Wilson (alongside Bronson and Hughes), giving her a party‑base boost ahead of the primary
Polling shows Treg Taylor at 5% support among likely voters in Alaska gubernatorial primary, indicating low voter enthusiasm relative to other candidates
Treg Taylor drops to 6%6%
Polling shows Treg Taylor at 5% support among likely voters in Alaska gubernatorial primary, indicating low voter enthusiasm relative to other candidates
After a televised debate, Begich’s performance is praised for clear fiscal proposals, prompting a further uptick
After a televised debate, Begich’s performance is praised for clear fiscal proposals, prompting a further uptick
Newly formed pro-Bishop political group backed by Alaska’s organized labor pledges six-figure spending to support his campaign
Click Bishop rises to 7%4%
Labor support and funding boosted Bishop’s visibility and market
Begich announces a new partnership with Alaska Native organizations to address climate‑induced relocation, improving his standing among rural voters
Tom Begich jumps to 34%9%
Begich announces a new partnership with Alaska Native organizations to address climate‑induced relocation, improving his standing among rural voters
Click Bishop announces Iñupiaq leader Greta Schuerch as his running mate at a Fairbanks event
Click Bishop jumps to 16%14%
The running mate announcement energized Bishop’s campaign, causing a notable
Bronson proposes to double Alaska Permanent Fund earnings – A policy‑focused op‑ed outlining an aggressive investment target for the Permanent Fund generated a short‑term rally as
David Bronson jumps to 14%12%
Bronson proposes to double Alaska Permanent Fund earnings – A policy‑focused op‑ed outlining an aggressive investment target for the Permanent Fund generated a short‑term rally as investors speculated on a high‑profile platform.
Begich tours Petersburg again, reinforcing his education‑funding message and meeting with local media, lifting his odds ahead of the March poll bump
Tom Begich rises to 30%3%
Begich tours Petersburg again, reinforcing his education‑funding message and meeting with local media, lifting his odds ahead of the March poll bump
Polls show Democrat Tom Begich leading Republican Bernadette Wilson, with Bishop trailing in a fragmented race
Click Bishop drops to 6%6%
Polling data indicated Bishop lagging behind leading candidates, contributing to a
Dahlstrom certifies proper filing of Ballot Initiative Petition 25USCV, reaffirming voter citizenship requirements for the 2026 ballot, maintaining her profile in election
Nancy Dahlstrom dips to 12%2%
Dahlstrom certifies proper filing of Ballot Initiative Petition 25USCV, reaffirming voter citizenship requirements for the 2026 ballot, maintaining her profile in election administration
Adam Crum publicly attacks Treg Taylor for not being sufficiently pro-Trump, intensifying intra-party conflict and damaging Taylor’s standing among conservative voters
Treg Taylor jumps to 13%11%
Adam Crum publicly attacks Treg Taylor for not being sufficiently pro-Trump, intensifying intra-party conflict and damaging Taylor’s standing among conservative voters
Alaska Beacon reports Wilson’s waste‑management company suffered a devastating fire in March 2025, reminding voters of her business‑risk background and contributing to a
Bernadette Wilson dips to 21%3%
Alaska Beacon reports Wilson’s waste‑management company suffered a devastating fire in March 2025, reminding voters of her business‑risk background and contributing to a short‑term dip
Former Governor Dunleavy recall leader joins the governor’s race, intensifying competition and briefly pulling support away from Wilson
Bernadette Wilson drops to 24%6%
Former Governor Dunleavy recall leader joins the governor’s race, intensifying competition and briefly pulling support away from Wilson
Year‑start financial filing shows Wilson raised $306,000, the second‑highest GOP fundraising total, signaling strong campaign resources
Bernadette Wilson jumps to 30%11%
Year‑start financial filing shows Wilson raised $306,000, the second‑highest GOP fundraising total, signaling strong campaign resources
Treg Taylor reports $880,000 in total campaign contributions, ranking as the No.
Treg Taylor rises to 3%1%
2 fundraiser in the race, highlighting strong self-funding efforts
Former state legislator Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins announces gubernatorial candidacy, adding to the competitive field
The expanding candidate pool maintained pressure on Bishop’s chances, keeping his
Bronson selects Fairbanks financial adviser Josh Church as running mate – The announcement of a lieutenant‑governor pick from the Interior gave Bronson geographic balance and a
David Bronson jumps to 9%7%
Bronson selects Fairbanks financial adviser Josh Church as running mate – The announcement of a lieutenant‑governor pick from the Interior gave Bronson geographic balance and a modest
Begich’s campaign holds a high‑visibility meet‑and‑greet in Petersburg, stressing coalition‑building and affordable energy, sparking a short‑term rally
Tom Begich jumps to 38%14%
Begich’s campaign holds a high‑visibility meet‑and‑greet in Petersburg, stressing coalition‑building and affordable energy, sparking a short‑term rally
Dahlstrom certifies proper filing of Ballot Initiative Petition 24ESEG to repeal ranked-choice voting, setting stage for a major election reform vote in 2026
Nancy Dahlstrom rises to 26%4%
Dahlstrom certifies proper filing of Ballot Initiative Petition 24ESEG to repeal ranked-choice voting, setting stage for a major election reform vote in 2026
Lt. Governor submits Alaska voter registration list to U.S.
Department of Justice, a procedural step in election administration under her purview
Begich issues a statement criticizing Governor Dunleavy’s early FY 2027 budget release for lacking a funding plan for essential services
Tom Begich rises to 25%2%
Begich issues a statement criticizing Governor Dunleavy’s early FY 2027 budget release for lacking a funding plan for essential services
Begich visits the Yukon‑Kuskokwim Delta, touting rural‑education and climate‑adaptation plans, gaining praise from local leaders
Tom Begich rises to 23%3%
Begich visits the Yukon‑Kuskokwim Delta, touting rural‑education and climate‑adaptation plans, gaining praise from local leaders
Dahlstrom announces intent to recount Ballot Measure 2, a close vote on election system repeal, underscoring her involvement in contentious election issues
Nancy Dahlstrom jumps to 31%10%
Dahlstrom announces intent to recount Ballot Measure 2, a close vote on election system repeal, underscoring her involvement in contentious election issues
Dahlstrom highlights final day of election ballot counting for 2024 elections, emphasizing election integrity and transparency, reinforcing her administrative role but not
Dahlstrom highlights final day of election ballot counting for 2024 elections, emphasizing election integrity and transparency, reinforcing her administrative role but not boosting campaign odds
Independent expenditure group forms to fundraise on behalf of Treg Taylor, providing some campaign financial support amid a crowded field
Independent expenditure group forms to fundraise on behalf of Treg Taylor, providing some campaign financial support amid a crowded field
Report highlights crowded GOP field and weak fundraising for Bronson – An Anchorage Daily News story noting that Bronson lagged in fundraising amid a dozen Republican candidates
David Bronson plunges to 2%28%
Report highlights crowded GOP field and weak fundraising for Bronson – An Anchorage Daily News story noting that Bronson lagged in fundraising amid a dozen Republican candidates caused the market to dump his odds sharply.
Alaska’s “Political Pipeline” report notes Wilson filing a letter of intent with the Alaska Public Offices Commission, confirming her official entry and prompting early polling
Bernadette Wilson rises to 25%2%
Alaska’s “Political Pipeline” report notes Wilson filing a letter of intent with the Alaska Public Offices Commission, confirming her official entry and prompting early polling attention
Over a dozen candidates, including Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, Bernadette Wilson, and former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson, join the crowded GOP field
Click Bishop plunges to 3%47%
The entry of many Republican candidates split conservative votes, sharply reducing Bishop’s market probability.
Treg Taylor suffers major setback at Young Republican convention, tying for 15th place with only 15 votes, signaling weak grassroots support
Treg Taylor plunges to 4%46%
Treg Taylor suffers major setback at Young Republican convention, tying for 15th place with only 15 votes, signaling weak grassroots support
Click Bishop files letter of intent to run for Alaska governor, becoming the first candidate to officially enter the race
Bishop’s early entry marked him as a serious contender, initially reflected in the market’s 50%
Lt. Governor Dahlstrom certifies Ballot Initiative 25USCV application, advancing a voter citizenship requirement measure to signature gathering, highlighting her active role in
Nancy Dahlstrom rises to 24%3%
Lt. Governor Dahlstrom certifies Ballot Initiative 25USCV application, advancing a voter citizenship requirement measure to signature gathering, highlighting her active role in election oversight
Bronson officially launches gubernatorial campaign with statewide rollout – The announcement that former Anchorage mayor Dave Bronson was entering the 2026 governor’s race
David Bronson plunges to 30%20%
Bronson officially launches gubernatorial campaign with statewide rollout – The announcement that former Anchorage mayor Dave Bronson was entering the 2026 governor’s race introduced a new Republican contender, prompting an initial surge in his “Yes”
Wilson selects Alaska State Senator Mike Shower as her lieutenant‑governor running mate, adding a veteran‑legislator to the ticket and boosting her statewide profile
Bernadette Wilson jumps to 23%5%
Wilson selects Alaska State Senator Mike Shower as her lieutenant‑governor running mate, adding a veteran‑legislator to the ticket and boosting her statewide profile
Begich’s filing is reported by the Juneau Empire, emphasizing his criticism of the legislature‑governor split and his pledge to boost education funding
Begich’s filing is reported by the Juneau Empire, emphasizing his criticism of the legislature‑governor split and his pledge to boost education funding
Tom Begich files a letter of intent to run for Alaska governor, becoming the first Democrat in the 2026 race
Tom Begich plunges to 10%40%
Tom Begich files a letter of intent to run for Alaska governor, becoming the first Democrat in the 2026 race
Bernadette Wilson formally announces her candidacy for Alaska governor on the steps of the State Capitol, positioning herself as a business‑savvy outsider
Bernadette Wilson plunges to 18%32%
Bernadette Wilson formally announces her candidacy for Alaska governor on the steps of the State Capitol, positioning herself as a business‑savvy outsider
Nancy Dahlstrom files letter of intent to run for Alaska governor, officially entering the 2026 race and signaling her campaign launch
Nancy Dahlstrom plunges to 21%29%
Nancy Dahlstrom files letter of intent to run for Alaska governor, officially entering the 2026 race and signaling her campaign launch
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions