Trader consensus on Peru's 2026 presidential election first-round second place reflects a fragmented field where right-wing candidates Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori share 38.5% implied probabilities, buoyed by recent Ipsos and Datum polls showing them clustered at 8-10% support amid overall low single-digit showings for most contenders. This tightness stems from vote-splitting across 18+ viable aspirants, ongoing political instability under President Boluarte, and volatile voter preferences driven by economic woes and corruption scandals. Separation could emerge from early debates starting November 2024, fresh polling releases, party endorsements, or legal resolutions affecting Fujimori's eligibility, potentially consolidating anti-establishment or fujimorista blocs as the April 2026 vote nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedCarlos Espá 72%
Rafael López Aliaga 46%
Keiko Fujimori 46%
Mario Vizcarra 36%

Carlos Espá
72%

Rafael López Aliaga
46%

Keiko Fujimori
46%

Mario Vizcarra
36%

Mesías Guevara
36%

Fiorella Molinelli
36%

César Acuña
36%

José Williams
36%

Ricardo Belmont
36%

Fernando Olivera
36%

Yonhy Lescano
36%

Wolfgang Grozo
36%

Alfonso López Chau
35%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
35%

Jorge Nieto
35%

Marisol Pérez Tello
35%

Enrique Valderrama
35%

George Forsyth
35%

Carlos Álvarez
35%

Vladimir Cerrón
35%

Roberto Chiabra
35%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino
33%

José Luna
32%
Carlos Espá 72%
Rafael López Aliaga 46%
Keiko Fujimori 46%
Mario Vizcarra 36%

Carlos Espá
72%

Rafael López Aliaga
46%

Keiko Fujimori
46%

Mario Vizcarra
36%

Mesías Guevara
36%

Fiorella Molinelli
36%

César Acuña
36%

José Williams
36%

Ricardo Belmont
36%

Fernando Olivera
36%

Yonhy Lescano
36%

Wolfgang Grozo
36%

Alfonso López Chau
35%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
35%

Jorge Nieto
35%

Marisol Pérez Tello
35%

Enrique Valderrama
35%

George Forsyth
35%

Carlos Álvarez
35%

Vladimir Cerrón
35%

Roberto Chiabra
35%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino
33%

José Luna
32%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Peru's 2026 presidential election first-round second place reflects a fragmented field where right-wing candidates Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori share 38.5% implied probabilities, buoyed by recent Ipsos and Datum polls showing them clustered at 8-10% support amid overall low single-digit showings for most contenders. This tightness stems from vote-splitting across 18+ viable aspirants, ongoing political instability under President Boluarte, and volatile voter preferences driven by economic woes and corruption scandals. Separation could emerge from early debates starting November 2024, fresh polling releases, party endorsements, or legal resolutions affecting Fujimori's eligibility, potentially consolidating anti-establishment or fujimorista blocs as the April 2026 vote nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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