Trader consensus on Polymarket's Elon Musk X post volume for April 2026 fragments evenly across the 1200-1500 range at 8-9.3% implied probabilities each, reflecting his established rhythm of 40-50 daily posts as the platform's owner and pop culture lightning rod. Recent daily tallies—83 posts on March 22 amid viral Tesla and politics threads, 67 on March 26, and 54 on March 23—drive this clustering, showcasing consistent high engagement punctuated by news-driven spikes without major recent shifts. The tight competition stems from Musk's unpredictable surges tied to SpaceX launches, xAI updates, or controversies versus quieter engineering-focused periods. Key swing factors include late-April Tesla earnings and potential Starship tests, which could push totals higher amid his meme-fueled cultural dominance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated1320-1359 9.3%
1360-1399 9.0%
1200-1239 9.0%
1280-1319 8.9%
$4,365,425 Vol.
$4,365,425 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
<1%
680-699
<1%
700-719
<1%
720-739
<1%
740-759
<1%
760-779
<1%
780-799
<1%
800-839
2%
840-879
<1%
880-919
1%
920-959
2%
960-999
1%
1000-1039
3%
1040-1079
2%
1080-1119
3%
1120-1159
3%
1160-1199
4%
1200-1239
9%
1240-1279
7%
1280-1319
9%
1320-1359
9%
1360-1399
9%
1400-1439
9%
1440-1479
9%
1480-1519
6%
1520-1559
5%
1560-1599
4%
1600-1679
3%
1680-1759
2%
1760-1839
2%
1840-1919
3%
1920-1999
2%
2000+
2%
1320-1359 9.3%
1360-1399 9.0%
1200-1239 9.0%
1280-1319 8.9%
$4,365,425 Vol.
$4,365,425 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
<1%
680-699
<1%
700-719
<1%
720-739
<1%
740-759
<1%
760-779
<1%
780-799
<1%
800-839
2%
840-879
<1%
880-919
1%
920-959
2%
960-999
1%
1000-1039
3%
1040-1079
2%
1080-1119
3%
1120-1159
3%
1160-1199
4%
1200-1239
9%
1240-1279
7%
1280-1319
9%
1320-1359
9%
1360-1399
9%
1400-1439
9%
1440-1479
9%
1480-1519
6%
1520-1559
5%
1560-1599
4%
1600-1679
3%
1680-1759
2%
1760-1839
2%
1840-1919
3%
1920-1999
2%
2000+
2%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Feb 24, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket's Elon Musk X post volume for April 2026 fragments evenly across the 1200-1500 range at 8-9.3% implied probabilities each, reflecting his established rhythm of 40-50 daily posts as the platform's owner and pop culture lightning rod. Recent daily tallies—83 posts on March 22 amid viral Tesla and politics threads, 67 on March 26, and 54 on March 23—drive this clustering, showcasing consistent high engagement punctuated by news-driven spikes without major recent shifts. The tight competition stems from Musk's unpredictable surges tied to SpaceX launches, xAI updates, or controversies versus quieter engineering-focused periods. Key swing factors include late-April Tesla earnings and potential Starship tests, which could push totals higher amid his meme-fueled cultural dominance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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