Market icon
Tech·Apple

#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 31?

Market icon
Tech·Apple

#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 31?

Mar 31

Mar 31

Claude by Anthropic 88%

Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire 5.3%

Google 5.2%

ChatGPT 5%

Polymarket
NEW

Claude by Anthropic 88%

Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire 5.3%

Google 5.2%

ChatGPT 5%

Polymarket
NEW
Market icon

Claude by Anthropic

$25 Vol.

88%

Market icon

Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire

$6 Vol.

5%

Market icon

Google

$380 Vol.

5%

Market icon

ChatGPT

$8 Vol.

5%

Market icon

NCAA March Madness Live

$5 Vol.

4%

Market icon

Threads

$14 Vol.

4%

Market icon

MLB

$0 Vol.

4%

Market icon

MyTSA

$21 Vol.

4%

Market icon

Google Gemini

$14 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #2 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Claude by Anthropic at 86% implied probability for the #2 free spot in the US Apple App Store on March 31, reflecting its sustained surge from #42 to #1 earlier in March, now holding #2 behind ChatGPT amid massive download spikes—up 55% recently—and server strains from overwhelming demand. This momentum stems from user backlash against OpenAI's Pentagon collaboration, prompting widespread migration to Anthropic's AI chatbot, bolstered by features like free memory upgrades and cross-platform dominance in 14 countries. ChatGPT lingers at 8.5% as the current #1 but faces uninstall surges, while MyTSA (7.4%) gains on spring break travel, Threads (6.5%) and NCAA March Madness Live (6%) ride seasonal engagement, and MLB (2%) eyes baseball's late-March kickoff; resolution hinges on final weekend download volatility.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Claude by Anthropic at 86% implied probability for the #2 free spot in the US Apple App Store on March 31, reflecting its sustained surge from #42 to #1 earlier in March, now holding #2 behind ChatGPT amid massive download spikes—up 55% recently—and server strains from overwhelming demand. This momentum stems from user backlash against OpenAI's Pentagon collaboration, prompting widespread migration to Anthropic's AI chatbot, bolstered by features like free memory upgrades and cross-platform dominance in 14 countries. ChatGPT lingers at 8.5% as the current #1 but faces uninstall surges, while MyTSA (7.4%) gains on spring break travel, Threads (6.5%) and NCAA March Madness Live (6%) ride seasonal engagement, and MLB (2%) eyes baseball's late-March kickoff; resolution hinges on final weekend download volatility.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #2 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Claude by Anthropic at 86% implied probability for the #2 free spot in the US Apple App Store on March 31, reflecting its sustained surge from #42 to #1 earlier in March, now holding #2 behind ChatGPT amid massive download spikes—up 55% recently—and server strains from overwhelming demand. This momentum stems from user backlash against OpenAI's Pentagon collaboration, prompting widespread migration to Anthropic's AI chatbot, bolstered by features like free memory upgrades and cross-platform dominance in 14 countries. ChatGPT lingers at 8.5% as the current #1 but faces uninstall surges, while MyTSA (7.4%) gains on spring break travel, Threads (6.5%) and NCAA March Madness Live (6%) ride seasonal engagement, and MLB (2%) eyes baseball's late-March kickoff; resolution hinges on final weekend download volatility.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Claude by Anthropic at 86% implied probability for the #2 free spot in the US Apple App Store on March 31, reflecting its sustained surge from #42 to #1 earlier in March, now holding #2 behind ChatGPT amid massive download spikes—up 55% recently—and server strains from overwhelming demand. This momentum stems from user backlash against OpenAI's Pentagon collaboration, prompting widespread migration to Anthropic's AI chatbot, bolstered by features like free memory upgrades and cross-platform dominance in 14 countries. ChatGPT lingers at 8.5% as the current #1 but faces uninstall surges, while MyTSA (7.4%) gains on spring break travel, Threads (6.5%) and NCAA March Madness Live (6%) ride seasonal engagement, and MLB (2%) eyes baseball's late-March kickoff; resolution hinges on final weekend download volatility.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

Market icon

Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?

43%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Claude by Anthropic" at 88%, followed by "Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 88¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 27, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 31?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 31?" is "Claude by Anthropic" at 88%, meaning the market assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire" at 5%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.