Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an implied 60% probability for Elon Musk's net worth below $640 billion on March 31, reflecting Tesla's dominant weighting in his portfolio amid recent share price weakness. Tesla (TSLA) stock has retreated about 10% in the past two weeks after January delivery data showed modest year-over-year growth overshadowed by intensifying competition from BYD in China and softening U.S. EV demand, pressuring margins and Musk's ~20% effective stake valued near $200 billion at current ~$320/share levels. SpaceX's private valuation holds steady around $210 billion post-secondary share sale, while xAI's tender offer implies ~$50 billion, providing offsets but insufficient for higher bins. Key near-term catalyst: Tesla's Q1 production/delivery update due early April, which could shift pricing ahead of quarter-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated<640b 58%
640-650b 24%
650-660b 7%
710b+ 3.0%
$485,584 Vol.
$485,584 Vol.
<640b
58%
640-650b
24%
650-660b
7%
660-670b
1%
670-680b
3%
680-690b
1%
690-700b
1%
700-710b
1%
710b+
3%
<640b 58%
640-650b 24%
650-660b 7%
710b+ 3.0%
$485,584 Vol.
$485,584 Vol.
<640b
58%
640-650b
24%
650-660b
7%
660-670b
1%
670-680b
3%
680-690b
1%
690-700b
1%
700-710b
1%
710b+
3%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for March 31, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Market Opened: Feb 25, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for March 31, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an implied 60% probability for Elon Musk's net worth below $640 billion on March 31, reflecting Tesla's dominant weighting in his portfolio amid recent share price weakness. Tesla (TSLA) stock has retreated about 10% in the past two weeks after January delivery data showed modest year-over-year growth overshadowed by intensifying competition from BYD in China and softening U.S. EV demand, pressuring margins and Musk's ~20% effective stake valued near $200 billion at current ~$320/share levels. SpaceX's private valuation holds steady around $210 billion post-secondary share sale, while xAI's tender offer implies ~$50 billion, providing offsets but insufficient for higher bins. Key near-term catalyst: Tesla's Q1 production/delivery update due early April, which could shift pricing ahead of quarter-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions