Skip to main content
icon for What will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be?
Tech·IPOs

What will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be?

icon for What will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be?
Tech·IPOs

What will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be?

1.75-2.00T 61%

2.00-2.25T 12%

2.25-2.50T 7.7%

2.50T+ 6.3%

Polymarket

$133,822 Vol.

1.75-2.00T 61%

2.00-2.25T 12%

2.25-2.50T 7.7%

2.50T+ 6.3%

Polymarket

$133,822 Vol.

<1.25T

$60,444 Vol.

2%

1.25-1.50T

$16,039 Vol.

4%

1.50-1.75T

$9,240 Vol.

21%

1.75-2.00T

$12,949 Vol.

57%

2.00-2.25T

$14,316 Vol.

29%

2.25-2.50T

$10,055 Vol.

8%

2.50T+

$10,779 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX’s accelerated IPO timeline, with confidential SEC filings and a targeted Nasdaq debut as early as mid-June 2026, is anchoring trader sentiment around the $1.75–2.00 trillion valuation band. Recent reports indicate the company aims to raise approximately $75 billion at a $1.75–2.00 trillion post-money valuation to fund Starlink expansion and Starship development, up from earlier private-market levels near $800 billion. This positioning aligns with the 56.5% market-implied probability for the 1.75–2.00T range, while the 22.0% odds on 2.00–2.25T reflect optimism around revenue growth exceeding $15 billion annually and strong institutional demand. Traders are also pricing in the 21.1% chance for 1.50–1.75T amid uncertainty over final pricing after the roadshow. Upcoming catalysts include the expected prospectus release in the coming weeks and any revisions to earnings guidance that could shift implied probabilities.

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price.

The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.

Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.

If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.

If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$133,822
Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 6:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX’s accelerated IPO timeline, with confidential SEC filings and a targeted Nasdaq debut as early as mid-June 2026, is anchoring trader sentiment around the $1.75–2.00 trillion valuation band. Recent reports indicate the company aims to raise approximately $75 billion at a $1.75–2.00 trillion post-money valuation to fund Starlink expansion and Starship development, up from earlier private-market levels near $800 billion. This positioning aligns with the 56.5% market-implied probability for the 1.75–2.00T range, while the 22.0% odds on 2.00–2.25T reflect optimism around revenue growth exceeding $15 billion annually and strong institutional demand. Traders are also pricing in the 21.1% chance for 1.50–1.75T amid uncertainty over final pricing after the roadshow. Upcoming catalysts include the expected prospectus release in the coming weeks and any revisions to earnings guidance that could shift implied probabilities.

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price.

The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.

Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.

If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.

If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$133,822
Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 6:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Related

icon for Will SpaceX raise between $50B and $60B in its IPO?

Will SpaceX raise between $50B and $60B in its IPO?

36%
icon for SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?

98%
icon for Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?

31%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"What will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1.75-2.00T" at 56%, followed by "2.00-2.25T" at 29%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 56¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be?" has generated $133.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 25, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be?" is "1.75-2.00T" at 56%, meaning the market assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "2.00-2.25T" at 29%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.