Polymarket traders price a 70-80 billion dollar IPO raise for SpaceX at 32.5% implied probability, reflecting cautious consensus amid the company's April 1 confidential SEC filing targeting an early June roadshow and mid-June pricing. This lead tempers aggressive $1.75-2 trillion valuation targets—boosted by Starlink's subscriber growth to over 7 million and Starship test successes—against the $800 billion mark from December's tender offer, signaling skepticism on premium IPO multiples versus aerospace comps like Boeing. Lower brackets gain traction on potential market volatility or scaled-back share allocation, while 120 billion-plus odds languish below 4% absent blockbuster demand; key swing factors include roadshow feedback, regulatory clearance, and risk appetite for the largest-ever offering surpassing Aramco's $29 billion benchmark.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$135,155 Vol.
$135,155 Vol.
<40B
5%
40-50B
3%
50-60B
13%
60-70B
10%
70-80B
33%
80-90B
14%
90-100B
2%
100-110B
8%
110-120B
1%
120B+
3%
$135,155 Vol.
$135,155 Vol.
<40B
$9,568 Vol.
5%
40-50B
$5,310 Vol.
3%
50-60B
$33,062 Vol.
13%
60-70B
$14,044 Vol.
10%
70-80B
$24,208 Vol.
33%
80-90B
$15,462 Vol.
14%
90-100B
$10,080 Vol.
2%
100-110B
$7,478 Vol.
8%
110-120B
$8,448 Vol.
1%
120B+
$7,496 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders price a 70-80 billion dollar IPO raise for SpaceX at 32.5% implied probability, reflecting cautious consensus amid the company's April 1 confidential SEC filing targeting an early June roadshow and mid-June pricing. This lead tempers aggressive $1.75-2 trillion valuation targets—boosted by Starlink's subscriber growth to over 7 million and Starship test successes—against the $800 billion mark from December's tender offer, signaling skepticism on premium IPO multiples versus aerospace comps like Boeing. Lower brackets gain traction on potential market volatility or scaled-back share allocation, while 120 billion-plus odds languish below 4% absent blockbuster demand; key swing factors include roadshow feedback, regulatory clearance, and risk appetite for the largest-ever offering surpassing Aramco's $29 billion benchmark.
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 25, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Volume
$135,155Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders price a 70-80 billion dollar IPO raise for SpaceX at 32.5% implied probability, reflecting cautious consensus amid the company's April 1 confidential SEC filing targeting an early June roadshow and mid-June pricing. This lead tempers aggressive $1.75-2 trillion valuation targets—boosted by Starlink's subscriber growth to over 7 million and Starship test successes—against the $800 billion mark from December's tender offer, signaling skepticism on premium IPO multiples versus aerospace comps like Boeing. Lower brackets gain traction on potential market volatility or scaled-back share allocation, while 120 billion-plus odds languish below 4% absent blockbuster demand; key swing factors include roadshow feedback, regulatory clearance, and risk appetite for the largest-ever offering surpassing Aramco's $29 billion benchmark.
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$135,155Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price a 70-80 billion dollar IPO raise for SpaceX at 32.5% implied probability, reflecting cautious consensus amid the company's April 1 confidential SEC filing targeting an early June roadshow and mid-June pricing. This lead tempers aggressive $1.75-2 trillion valuation targets—boosted by Starlink's subscriber growth to over 7 million and Starship test successes—against the $800 billion mark from December's tender offer, signaling skepticism on premium IPO multiples versus aerospace comps like Boeing. Lower brackets gain traction on potential market volatility or scaled-back share allocation, while 120 billion-plus odds languish below 4% absent blockbuster demand; key swing factors include roadshow feedback, regulatory clearance, and risk appetite for the largest-ever offering surpassing Aramco's $29 billion benchmark.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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