Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77% implied probability against a Discord IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting stalled progress since the company's confidential S-1 filing in January amid profitability challenges that have decoupled its 200 million+ monthly active users from robust investor confidence. The private valuation remains anchored at around $15 billion—unchanged from 2021 funding rounds—with secondary market shares trading at $31.36 as of April 17, positioning the < $15 billion outcome at 16.3% if a listing occurs, as underwriters Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan navigate a sobering public market for growth-stage tech. No public S-1 has emerged three months post-confidential submission, missing the Q1 window, though board deliberations on timing amid a recovering IPO pipeline could catalyze shifts ahead of regulatory deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo IPO by June 30, 2026 77%
<15B 16.3%
15–20B 3.4%
25–30B 1.7%
$870,698 Vol.
$870,698 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<15B
16%
15–20B
3%
20–25B
1%
25–30B
2%
30B+
1%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
77%
No IPO by June 30, 2026 77%
<15B 16.3%
15–20B 3.4%
25–30B 1.7%
$870,698 Vol.
$870,698 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<15B
$296,513 Vol.
16%
15–20B
$107,187 Vol.
3%
20–25B
$73,620 Vol.
1%
25–30B
$105,568 Vol.
2%
30B+
$98,233 Vol.
1%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
$189,577 Vol.
77%
This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77% implied probability against a Discord IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting stalled progress since the company's confidential S-1 filing in January amid profitability challenges that have decoupled its 200 million+ monthly active users from robust investor confidence. The private valuation remains anchored at around $15 billion—unchanged from 2021 funding rounds—with secondary market shares trading at $31.36 as of April 17, positioning the < $15 billion outcome at 16.3% if a listing occurs, as underwriters Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan navigate a sobering public market for growth-stage tech. No public S-1 has emerged three months post-confidential submission, missing the Q1 window, though board deliberations on timing amid a recovering IPO pipeline could catalyze shifts ahead of regulatory deadlines.
This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Volume
$870,698End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77% implied probability against a Discord IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting stalled progress since the company's confidential S-1 filing in January amid profitability challenges that have decoupled its 200 million+ monthly active users from robust investor confidence. The private valuation remains anchored at around $15 billion—unchanged from 2021 funding rounds—with secondary market shares trading at $31.36 as of April 17, positioning the < $15 billion outcome at 16.3% if a listing occurs, as underwriters Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan navigate a sobering public market for growth-stage tech. No public S-1 has emerged three months post-confidential submission, missing the Q1 window, though board deliberations on timing amid a recovering IPO pipeline could catalyze shifts ahead of regulatory deadlines.
This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$870,698End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77% implied probability against a Discord IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting stalled progress since the company's confidential S-1 filing in January amid profitability challenges that have decoupled its 200 million+ monthly active users from robust investor confidence. The private valuation remains anchored at around $15 billion—unchanged from 2021 funding rounds—with secondary market shares trading at $31.36 as of April 17, positioning the < $15 billion outcome at 16.3% if a listing occurs, as underwriters Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan navigate a sobering public market for growth-stage tech. No public S-1 has emerged three months post-confidential submission, missing the Q1 window, though board deliberations on timing amid a recovering IPO pipeline could catalyze shifts ahead of regulatory deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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