OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s September 12, 2026 statements that a 2026 listing would be “ill-advised” amid AI safety and alignment priorities have anchored the 95.3% market-implied probability of no IPO by year-end. The company confidentially filed its S-1 in June targeting up to a $1 trillion valuation but shifted focus to 2027 after internal reviews, with CFO Sarah Friar confirming the delay in August. Strong private-market access, including a March $122 billion round at an $852 billion post-money valuation and ongoing talks for at least $30 billion more near $1.4 trillion, reduces pressure to access public equity. A faster-than-expected safety resolution or sharp improvement in IPO-window conditions could still lift probabilities for a late-2026 close, though current sentiment prices that outcome as remote.