Polymarket traders price a tight contest for OpenAI's potential IPO closing market cap by December 31, 2027, with no listing at 29.5% implied probability edging out a 750B–1T valuation at 26.5%, reflecting recent $122 billion funding at an $852 billion post-money valuation that bolsters high-cap sentiment amid enterprise revenue growth to 40% of total. However, CFO Sarah Friar's warnings of an overly aggressive Q4 2026 timeline—citing $121 billion compute spend commitments by 2028, slowing revenue acceleration, and organizational hurdles—elevate no-IPO odds, exacerbated by internal leadership tensions and competition from Anthropic's Claude models. Traders eye S-1 filing risks and profitability path beyond 2030 as key swing factors.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2027年12月31日前不进行IPO 29%
1万亿–1.25万亿 14%
1.25万亿–1.5万亿 14%
5000亿–7500亿美元 8%
$14,106 交易量
$14,106 交易量
2027-12-31
低于5000亿
7%
5000亿–7500亿美元
26%
7500亿–1万亿
25%
1万亿–1.25万亿
17%
1.25万亿–1.5万亿
14%
1.5万亿以上
14%
2027年12月31日前不进行IPO
29%
2027年12月31日前不进行IPO 29%
1万亿–1.25万亿 14%
1.25万亿–1.5万亿 14%
5000亿–7500亿美元 8%
$14,106 交易量
$14,106 交易量
2027-12-31
低于5000亿
$62 交易量
7%
5000亿–7500亿美元
$84 交易量
26%
7500亿–1万亿
$90 交易量
25%
1万亿–1.25万亿
$2,920 交易量
17%
1.25万亿–1.5万亿
$126 交易量
14%
1.5万亿以上
$42 交易量
14%
2027年12月31日前不进行IPO
$10,783 交易量
29%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Polymarket traders price a tight contest for OpenAI's potential IPO closing market cap by December 31, 2027, with no listing at 29.5% implied probability edging out a 750B–1T valuation at 26.5%, reflecting recent $122 billion funding at an $852 billion post-money valuation that bolsters high-cap sentiment amid enterprise revenue growth to 40% of total. However, CFO Sarah Friar's warnings of an overly aggressive Q4 2026 timeline—citing $121 billion compute spend commitments by 2028, slowing revenue acceleration, and organizational hurdles—elevate no-IPO odds, exacerbated by internal leadership tensions and competition from Anthropic's Claude models. Traders eye S-1 filing risks and profitability path beyond 2030 as key swing factors.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市场开放时间： Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
交易量
$14,106结束日期
2027-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Polymarket traders price a tight contest for OpenAI's potential IPO closing market cap by December 31, 2027, with no listing at 29.5% implied probability edging out a 750B–1T valuation at 26.5%, reflecting recent $122 billion funding at an $852 billion post-money valuation that bolsters high-cap sentiment amid enterprise revenue growth to 40% of total. However, CFO Sarah Friar's warnings of an overly aggressive Q4 2026 timeline—citing $121 billion compute spend commitments by 2028, slowing revenue acceleration, and organizational hurdles—elevate no-IPO odds, exacerbated by internal leadership tensions and competition from Anthropic's Claude models. Traders eye S-1 filing risks and profitability path beyond 2030 as key swing factors.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
交易量
$14,106结束日期
2027-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a tight contest for OpenAI's potential IPO closing market cap by December 31, 2027, with no listing at 29.5% implied probability edging out a 750B–1T valuation at 26.5%, reflecting recent $122 billion funding at an $852 billion post-money valuation that bolsters high-cap sentiment amid enterprise revenue growth to 40% of total. However, CFO Sarah Friar's warnings of an overly aggressive Q4 2026 timeline—citing $121 billion compute spend commitments by 2028, slowing revenue acceleration, and organizational hurdles—elevate no-IPO odds, exacerbated by internal leadership tensions and competition from Anthropic's Claude models. Traders eye S-1 filing risks and profitability path beyond 2030 as key swing factors.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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