OpenAI's trader consensus favors no IPO by December 31, 2026, at 64.5% implied probability, driven by its record $122 billion funding round closed April 1 at an $852 billion private valuation—the largest in history—providing ample capital amid projected 2026 cash burn exceeding $25 billion for AI compute and model training. This mega-raise from Microsoft, SoftBank, Amazon, and Nvidia underscores investor willingness to fund OpenAI's competitive edge in large language models privately, delaying public listing amid profitability concerns and secondary market selling pressure. High-valuation outcomes like 1.5T+ (8.6%) reflect growth potential from enterprise adoption and upcoming releases, but hinge on S-1 filings or strategic shifts; watch Q2 earnings for profitability signals that could shift sentiment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于截至 2026 年 12 月 31 日尚未进行首次公开发行（IPO） 65%
1.5万亿美元+ 8.5%
1.25万亿美元–1.5万亿美元 7.7%
1万亿美元–1.25万亿美元 4.7%
$1,552,917 交易量
$1,552,917 交易量
2026-06-30
<500B
3%
5000亿美元–7500亿美元
4%
7500亿美元–1万亿美元
3%
1万亿美元–1.25万亿美元
5%
1.25万亿美元–1.5万亿美元
8%
1.5万亿美元+
9%
截至 2026 年 12 月 31 日尚未进行首次公开发行（IPO）
65%
截至 2026 年 12 月 31 日尚未进行首次公开发行（IPO） 65%
1.5万亿美元+ 8.5%
1.25万亿美元–1.5万亿美元 7.7%
1万亿美元–1.25万亿美元 4.7%
$1,552,917 交易量
$1,552,917 交易量
2026-06-30
<500B
$257,396 交易量
3%
5000亿美元–7500亿美元
$139,293 交易量
4%
7500亿美元–1万亿美元
$130,566 交易量
3%
1万亿美元–1.25万亿美元
$172,840 交易量
5%
1.25万亿美元–1.5万亿美元
$487,448 交易量
8%
1.5万亿美元+
$92,310 交易量
9%
截至 2026 年 12 月 31 日尚未进行首次公开发行（IPO）
$273,064 交易量
65%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI's trader consensus favors no IPO by December 31, 2026, at 64.5% implied probability, driven by its record $122 billion funding round closed April 1 at an $852 billion private valuation—the largest in history—providing ample capital amid projected 2026 cash burn exceeding $25 billion for AI compute and model training. This mega-raise from Microsoft, SoftBank, Amazon, and Nvidia underscores investor willingness to fund OpenAI's competitive edge in large language models privately, delaying public listing amid profitability concerns and secondary market selling pressure. High-valuation outcomes like 1.5T+ (8.6%) reflect growth potential from enterprise adoption and upcoming releases, but hinge on S-1 filings or strategic shifts; watch Q2 earnings for profitability signals that could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市场开放时间： Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
交易量
$1,552,917结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI's trader consensus favors no IPO by December 31, 2026, at 64.5% implied probability, driven by its record $122 billion funding round closed April 1 at an $852 billion private valuation—the largest in history—providing ample capital amid projected 2026 cash burn exceeding $25 billion for AI compute and model training. This mega-raise from Microsoft, SoftBank, Amazon, and Nvidia underscores investor willingness to fund OpenAI's competitive edge in large language models privately, delaying public listing amid profitability concerns and secondary market selling pressure. High-valuation outcomes like 1.5T+ (8.6%) reflect growth potential from enterprise adoption and upcoming releases, but hinge on S-1 filings or strategic shifts; watch Q2 earnings for profitability signals that could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
交易量
$1,552,917结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI's trader consensus favors no IPO by December 31, 2026, at 64.5% implied probability, driven by its record $122 billion funding round closed April 1 at an $852 billion private valuation—the largest in history—providing ample capital amid projected 2026 cash burn exceeding $25 billion for AI compute and model training. This mega-raise from Microsoft, SoftBank, Amazon, and Nvidia underscores investor willingness to fund OpenAI's competitive edge in large language models privately, delaying public listing amid profitability concerns and secondary market selling pressure. High-valuation outcomes like 1.5T+ (8.6%) reflect growth potential from enterprise adoption and upcoming releases, but hinge on S-1 filings or strategic shifts; watch Q2 earnings for profitability signals that could shift sentiment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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