Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 65.5% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, reflecting the AI leader's freshly closed $122 billion funding round—the largest in Silicon Valley history—at an $852 billion post-money valuation, granting ample capital runway and reducing public listing urgency. Recent hires like a former DocuSign CFO for investor relations and SoftBank's $40 billion loan for its stake signal groundwork for a potential Q4 2026 debut, yet secondary market demand has cooled amid investor wariness over $19 billion projected 2026 cash burn against $25 billion revenue and a premium 28x sales multiple. Sky-high cap outcomes like 1.5T+ at 8.5% lag due to public market discounts on private hype, AI competition from Anthropic, and regulatory headwinds, with profitability elusive until 2030.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于截至 2026 年 12 月 31 日尚未进行首次公开发行（IPO） 66%
1.5万亿美元+ 8.4%
1.25万亿美元–1.5万亿美元 7.7%
1万亿美元–1.25万亿美元 4.7%
$1,552,534 交易量
$1,552,534 交易量
2026-06-30
<500B
3%
5000亿美元–7500亿美元
4%
7500亿美元–1万亿美元
3%
1万亿美元–1.25万亿美元
5%
1.25万亿美元–1.5万亿美元
8%
1.5万亿美元+
8%
截至 2026 年 12 月 31 日尚未进行首次公开发行（IPO）
66%
截至 2026 年 12 月 31 日尚未进行首次公开发行（IPO） 66%
1.5万亿美元+ 8.4%
1.25万亿美元–1.5万亿美元 7.7%
1万亿美元–1.25万亿美元 4.7%
$1,552,534 交易量
$1,552,534 交易量
2026-06-30
<500B
$257,396 交易量
3%
5000亿美元–7500亿美元
$139,268 交易量
4%
7500亿美元–1万亿美元
$130,376 交易量
3%
1万亿美元–1.25万亿美元
$172,840 交易量
5%
1.25万亿美元–1.5万亿美元
$487,448 交易量
8%
1.5万亿美元+
$92,310 交易量
8%
截至 2026 年 12 月 31 日尚未进行首次公开发行（IPO）
$272,896 交易量
66%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 65.5% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, reflecting the AI leader's freshly closed $122 billion funding round—the largest in Silicon Valley history—at an $852 billion post-money valuation, granting ample capital runway and reducing public listing urgency. Recent hires like a former DocuSign CFO for investor relations and SoftBank's $40 billion loan for its stake signal groundwork for a potential Q4 2026 debut, yet secondary market demand has cooled amid investor wariness over $19 billion projected 2026 cash burn against $25 billion revenue and a premium 28x sales multiple. Sky-high cap outcomes like 1.5T+ at 8.5% lag due to public market discounts on private hype, AI competition from Anthropic, and regulatory headwinds, with profitability elusive until 2030.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市场开放时间： Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
交易量
$1,552,534结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 65.5% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, reflecting the AI leader's freshly closed $122 billion funding round—the largest in Silicon Valley history—at an $852 billion post-money valuation, granting ample capital runway and reducing public listing urgency. Recent hires like a former DocuSign CFO for investor relations and SoftBank's $40 billion loan for its stake signal groundwork for a potential Q4 2026 debut, yet secondary market demand has cooled amid investor wariness over $19 billion projected 2026 cash burn against $25 billion revenue and a premium 28x sales multiple. Sky-high cap outcomes like 1.5T+ at 8.5% lag due to public market discounts on private hype, AI competition from Anthropic, and regulatory headwinds, with profitability elusive until 2030.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
交易量
$1,552,534结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 65.5% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, reflecting the AI leader's freshly closed $122 billion funding round—the largest in Silicon Valley history—at an $852 billion post-money valuation, granting ample capital runway and reducing public listing urgency. Recent hires like a former DocuSign CFO for investor relations and SoftBank's $40 billion loan for its stake signal groundwork for a potential Q4 2026 debut, yet secondary market demand has cooled amid investor wariness over $19 billion projected 2026 cash burn against $25 billion revenue and a premium 28x sales multiple. Sky-high cap outcomes like 1.5T+ at 8.5% lag due to public market discounts on private hype, AI competition from Anthropic, and regulatory headwinds, with profitability elusive until 2030.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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