Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 65% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by June 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominant performance atop LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboards (Elo ~1550 in coding and reasoning) and the April 7 preview of Claude Mythos, a potent new large language model excelling in general tasks. Google's 19% share reflects recent Gemini 3.1 Pro gains and Gemma 4 open models released April 2, narrowing the gap in multimodal benchmarks, while OpenAI's 9% trails due to GPT-5.4's solid but non-leading scores post-February updates. xAI's Grok lags at 4% amid Grok 5 delays. Watch for Claude 4.7 or Gemini 4 announcements before quarter-end, as rapid iteration defines the competitive AI landscape.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 65.0%
谷歌 19%
OpenAI 9%
xAI 3.9%
$3,430,688 交易量
$3,430,688 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
65%
谷歌
19%
OpenAI
9%
xAI
4%
Meta
2%
分组项标题：DeepSeek
1%
亚马逊
1%
Z.ai
1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
分组项标题：Mistral
<1%
百度
<1%
美团
<1%
微软
<1%
字节跳动
<1%
Anthropic 65.0%
谷歌 19%
OpenAI 9%
xAI 3.9%
$3,430,688 交易量
$3,430,688 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
$610,370 交易量
65%
谷歌
$334,974 交易量
19%
OpenAI
$158,075 交易量
9%
xAI
$889,213 交易量
4%
Meta
$17,523 交易量
2%
分组项标题：DeepSeek
$284,901 交易量
1%
亚马逊
$23,602 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$202,614 交易量
1%
阿里巴巴
$147,491 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$146,588 交易量
<1%
分组项标题：Mistral
$331,431 交易量
<1%
百度
$36,196 交易量
<1%
美团
$189,361 交易量
<1%
微软
$26,208 交易量
<1%
字节跳动
$33,317 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 65% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by June 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominant performance atop LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboards (Elo ~1550 in coding and reasoning) and the April 7 preview of Claude Mythos, a potent new large language model excelling in general tasks. Google's 19% share reflects recent Gemini 3.1 Pro gains and Gemma 4 open models released April 2, narrowing the gap in multimodal benchmarks, while OpenAI's 9% trails due to GPT-5.4's solid but non-leading scores post-February updates. xAI's Grok lags at 4% amid Grok 5 delays. Watch for Claude 4.7 or Gemini 4 announcements before quarter-end, as rapid iteration defines the competitive AI landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
交易量
$3,430,688结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 65% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by June 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominant performance atop LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboards (Elo ~1550 in coding and reasoning) and the April 7 preview of Claude Mythos, a potent new large language model excelling in general tasks. Google's 19% share reflects recent Gemini 3.1 Pro gains and Gemma 4 open models released April 2, narrowing the gap in multimodal benchmarks, while OpenAI's 9% trails due to GPT-5.4's solid but non-leading scores post-February updates. xAI's Grok lags at 4% amid Grok 5 delays. Watch for Claude 4.7 or Gemini 4 announcements before quarter-end, as rapid iteration defines the competitive AI landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$3,430,688结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 65% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by June 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominant performance atop LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboards (Elo ~1550 in coding and reasoning) and the April 7 preview of Claude Mythos, a potent new large language model excelling in general tasks. Google's 19% share reflects recent Gemini 3.1 Pro gains and Gemma 4 open models released April 2, narrowing the gap in multimodal benchmarks, while OpenAI's 9% trails due to GPT-5.4's solid but non-leading scores post-February updates. xAI's Grok lags at 4% amid Grok 5 delays. Watch for Claude 4.7 or Gemini 4 announcements before quarter-end, as rapid iteration defines the competitive AI landscape.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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