Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6-thinking variant leads the LMSYS Chatbot Arena text leaderboard with a 1504 Elo rating as of late March 2026, powering trader consensus at 65.5% implied probability for the top AI model by June end, based on its edge in blind user battles across reasoning, coding, and creative writing. Released in early February, this model and its standard version (1500 Elo) dominate the top two spots, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview (1493 Elo, 23.5% odds) despite the latter's record 77.1% ARC-AGI-2 benchmark in mid-February. OpenAI's GPT-5.4-high trails at sixth (1484 Elo, 7.5% odds) amid rapid Q1 releases, while xAI's Grok-4.20 beta (1491 Elo) bolsters its 2.4% share. With Claude 5, Gemini 4, and Grok 5 rumored by June, Polymarket odds reflect Anthropic's sustained competitive positioning and "wisdom of crowds" from real-money bets.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Anthropic 65.5%
谷歌 24%
OpenAI 8%
xAI 2.4%
$2,914,436 交易量
$2,914,436 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
66%
谷歌
24%
OpenAI
8%
xAI
2%
分组项标题：DeepSeek
1%
Z.ai
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
分组项标题：Mistral
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
美团
<1%
Anthropic 65.5%
谷歌 24%
OpenAI 8%
xAI 2.4%
$2,914,436 交易量
$2,914,436 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$570,231 交易量
66%
谷歌
$317,277 交易量
24%
OpenAI
$103,821 交易量
8%
xAI
$848,089 交易量
2%
分组项标题：DeepSeek
$211,123 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$171,700 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$112,785 交易量
<1%
分组项标题：Mistral
$292,903 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$125,270 交易量
<1%
美团
$161,237 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6-thinking variant leads the LMSYS Chatbot Arena text leaderboard with a 1504 Elo rating as of late March 2026, powering trader consensus at 65.5% implied probability for the top AI model by June end, based on its edge in blind user battles across reasoning, coding, and creative writing. Released in early February, this model and its standard version (1500 Elo) dominate the top two spots, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview (1493 Elo, 23.5% odds) despite the latter's record 77.1% ARC-AGI-2 benchmark in mid-February. OpenAI's GPT-5.4-high trails at sixth (1484 Elo, 7.5% odds) amid rapid Q1 releases, while xAI's Grok-4.20 beta (1491 Elo) bolsters its 2.4% share. With Claude 5, Gemini 4, and Grok 5 rumored by June, Polymarket odds reflect Anthropic's sustained competitive positioning and "wisdom of crowds" from real-money bets.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
交易量
$2,914,436结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6-thinking variant leads the LMSYS Chatbot Arena text leaderboard with a 1504 Elo rating as of late March 2026, powering trader consensus at 65.5% implied probability for the top AI model by June end, based on its edge in blind user battles across reasoning, coding, and creative writing. Released in early February, this model and its standard version (1500 Elo) dominate the top two spots, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview (1493 Elo, 23.5% odds) despite the latter's record 77.1% ARC-AGI-2 benchmark in mid-February. OpenAI's GPT-5.4-high trails at sixth (1484 Elo, 7.5% odds) amid rapid Q1 releases, while xAI's Grok-4.20 beta (1491 Elo) bolsters its 2.4% share. With Claude 5, Gemini 4, and Grok 5 rumored by June, Polymarket odds reflect Anthropic's sustained competitive positioning and "wisdom of crowds" from real-money bets.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$2,914,436结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6-thinking variant leads the LMSYS Chatbot Arena text leaderboard with a 1504 Elo rating as of late March 2026, powering trader consensus at 65.5% implied probability for the top AI model by June end, based on its edge in blind user battles across reasoning, coding, and creative writing. Released in early February, this model and its standard version (1500 Elo) dominate the top two spots, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview (1493 Elo, 23.5% odds) despite the latter's record 77.1% ARC-AGI-2 benchmark in mid-February. OpenAI's GPT-5.4-high trails at sixth (1484 Elo, 7.5% odds) amid rapid Q1 releases, while xAI's Grok-4.20 beta (1491 Elo) bolsters its 2.4% share. With Claude 5, Gemini 4, and Grok 5 rumored by June, Polymarket odds reflect Anthropic's sustained competitive positioning and "wisdom of crowds" from real-money bets.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题