Anthropic's Claude 3 Sonnet has dominated the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard since its March 4 release, propelling market-implied odds to a 98.9% trader consensus for the company holding the best AI model by end of March. This large language model excels in blind user evaluations on benchmarks for coding, reasoning, math, and multilingual tasks, consistently outpacing OpenAI's GPT-4 variants and Google's Gemini 1.5 by significant Elo margins—reflecting real-world AI capabilities rather than marketing claims. No rival launches in the past 30 days have narrowed the gap, with xAI's Grok and others trailing far behind amid slower development cycles. While leaderboard volatility or a surprise model drop could challenge this positioning, typical release timelines and evaluation stability make shifts improbable before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Anthropic 98.8%
谷歌 <1%
xAI <1%
OpenAI <1%
$15,058,468 交易量
$15,058,468 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
99%
谷歌
1%
xAI
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
百度
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
美团
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 98.8%
谷歌 <1%
xAI <1%
OpenAI <1%
$15,058,468 交易量
$15,058,468 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
$1,472,213 交易量
99%
谷歌
$939,995 交易量
1%
xAI
$1,086,643 交易量
<1%
OpenAI
$1,431,095 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,277,514 交易量
<1%
百度
$3,134,763 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$1,419,790 交易量
<1%
美团
$1,197,285 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$1,223,799 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$1,262,172 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$617,696 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude 3 Sonnet has dominated the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard since its March 4 release, propelling market-implied odds to a 98.9% trader consensus for the company holding the best AI model by end of March. This large language model excels in blind user evaluations on benchmarks for coding, reasoning, math, and multilingual tasks, consistently outpacing OpenAI's GPT-4 variants and Google's Gemini 1.5 by significant Elo margins—reflecting real-world AI capabilities rather than marketing claims. No rival launches in the past 30 days have narrowed the gap, with xAI's Grok and others trailing far behind amid slower development cycles. While leaderboard volatility or a surprise model drop could challenge this positioning, typical release timelines and evaluation stability make shifts improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
交易量
$15,058,468结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude 3 Sonnet has dominated the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard since its March 4 release, propelling market-implied odds to a 98.9% trader consensus for the company holding the best AI model by end of March. This large language model excels in blind user evaluations on benchmarks for coding, reasoning, math, and multilingual tasks, consistently outpacing OpenAI's GPT-4 variants and Google's Gemini 1.5 by significant Elo margins—reflecting real-world AI capabilities rather than marketing claims. No rival launches in the past 30 days have narrowed the gap, with xAI's Grok and others trailing far behind amid slower development cycles. While leaderboard volatility or a surprise model drop could challenge this positioning, typical release timelines and evaluation stability make shifts improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$15,058,468结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's Claude 3 Sonnet has dominated the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard since its March 4 release, propelling market-implied odds to a 98.9% trader consensus for the company holding the best AI model by end of March. This large language model excels in blind user evaluations on benchmarks for coding, reasoning, math, and multilingual tasks, consistently outpacing OpenAI's GPT-4 variants and Google's Gemini 1.5 by significant Elo margins—reflecting real-world AI capabilities rather than marketing claims. No rival launches in the past 30 days have narrowed the gap, with xAI's Grok and others trailing far behind amid slower development cycles. While leaderboard volatility or a surprise model drop could challenge this positioning, typical release timelines and evaluation stability make shifts improbable before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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