Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the best AI model by end of March 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominant position atop the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard (style control off), where it holds the highest Arena Score as of the March 31 snapshot. This reflects Anthropic's aggressive 2026 roadmap, including the February Claude Opus 4.6 release excelling in reasoning benchmarks like GPQA (91.9%) and MMLU-Pro (82%), plus March enhancements such as 1M-token context windows, agentic workflows via Claude Cowork, and surging enterprise adoption per their Economic Index report. While real capital backs this skin-in-the-game verdict, late-breaking competitor launches from Google (Gemini 3.1 Pro) or OpenAI (GPT-5.4), leaderboard volatility, or a tie could theoretically challenge it before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 100.0%
谷歌 <1%
OpenAI <1%
百度 <1%
$16,222,838 交易量
$16,222,838 交易量
2026-03-31
谷歌
否
OpenAI
否
百度
否
xAI
否
Moonshot
否
美团
否
Anthropic
是
阿里巴巴
否
Z.ai
否
DeepSeek
否
Mistral
否
Anthropic 100.0%
谷歌 <1%
OpenAI <1%
百度 <1%
$16,222,838 交易量
$16,222,838 交易量
2026-03-31
谷歌
$1,196,016 交易量
否
OpenAI
$1,653,187 交易量
否
百度
$3,141,144 交易量
否
xAI
$1,261,862 交易量
否
Moonshot
$1,424,813 交易量
否
美团
$1,201,321 交易量
否
Anthropic
$1,753,531 交易量
是
阿里巴巴
$1,225,712 交易量
否
Z.ai
$1,263,181 交易量
否
DeepSeek
$1,481,355 交易量
否
Mistral
$620,715 交易量
否
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the best AI model by end of March 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominant position atop the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard (style control off), where it holds the highest Arena Score as of the March 31 snapshot. This reflects Anthropic's aggressive 2026 roadmap, including the February Claude Opus 4.6 release excelling in reasoning benchmarks like GPQA (91.9%) and MMLU-Pro (82%), plus March enhancements such as 1M-token context windows, agentic workflows via Claude Cowork, and surging enterprise adoption per their Economic Index report. While real capital backs this skin-in-the-game verdict, late-breaking competitor launches from Google (Gemini 3.1 Pro) or OpenAI (GPT-5.4), leaderboard volatility, or a tie could theoretically challenge it before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
交易量
$16,222,838结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the best AI model by end of March 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominant position atop the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard (style control off), where it holds the highest Arena Score as of the March 31 snapshot. This reflects Anthropic's aggressive 2026 roadmap, including the February Claude Opus 4.6 release excelling in reasoning benchmarks like GPQA (91.9%) and MMLU-Pro (82%), plus March enhancements such as 1M-token context windows, agentic workflows via Claude Cowork, and surging enterprise adoption per their Economic Index report. While real capital backs this skin-in-the-game verdict, late-breaking competitor launches from Google (Gemini 3.1 Pro) or OpenAI (GPT-5.4), leaderboard volatility, or a tie could theoretically challenge it before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$16,222,838结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the best AI model by end of March 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominant position atop the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard (style control off), where it holds the highest Arena Score as of the March 31 snapshot. This reflects Anthropic's aggressive 2026 roadmap, including the February Claude Opus 4.6 release excelling in reasoning benchmarks like GPQA (91.9%) and MMLU-Pro (82%), plus March enhancements such as 1M-token context windows, agentic workflows via Claude Cowork, and surging enterprise adoption per their Economic Index report. While real capital backs this skin-in-the-game verdict, late-breaking competitor launches from Google (Gemini 3.1 Pro) or OpenAI (GPT-5.4), leaderboard volatility, or a tie could theoretically challenge it before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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