Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Google at 97.8% implied probability for the third-best AI model by end of March, driven by stable LMSYS Chatbot Arena Elo rankings where Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands the top spot since its early March release, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants in second. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro has held a consistent third position amid intense competition from recent launches like xAI's Grok 4.20 and DeepSeek V3.2, reflecting aggregated user votes that prioritize demonstrated capabilities in blind pairwise battles. This positioning stems from no major leaderboard shifts in the past week, underscoring the wisdom of crowds backed by real capital. Challenges could arise from a late surge in votes for xAI's Grok or an unannounced OpenAI tweak before resolution snapshot, though such volatility has been minimal lately.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于谷歌 97.9%
xAI 1.6%
Z.ai <1%
OpenAI <1%
$482,345 交易量
$482,345 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
谷歌
98%
xAI
2%
Z.ai
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Anthropic
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
百度
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
美团
<1%
谷歌 97.9%
xAI 1.6%
Z.ai <1%
OpenAI <1%
$482,345 交易量
$482,345 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
谷歌
$48,071 交易量
98%
xAI
$34,590 交易量
2%
Z.ai
$33,879 交易量
<1%
OpenAI
$49,896 交易量
<1%
Anthropic
$65,896 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$42,979 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$78,502 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$51,744 交易量
<1%
百度
$50,997 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$0 交易量
<1%
美团
$26,832 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Google at 97.8% implied probability for the third-best AI model by end of March, driven by stable LMSYS Chatbot Arena Elo rankings where Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands the top spot since its early March release, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants in second. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro has held a consistent third position amid intense competition from recent launches like xAI's Grok 4.20 and DeepSeek V3.2, reflecting aggregated user votes that prioritize demonstrated capabilities in blind pairwise battles. This positioning stems from no major leaderboard shifts in the past week, underscoring the wisdom of crowds backed by real capital. Challenges could arise from a late surge in votes for xAI's Grok or an unannounced OpenAI tweak before resolution snapshot, though such volatility has been minimal lately.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Dec 2, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
交易量
$482,345结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Google at 97.8% implied probability for the third-best AI model by end of March, driven by stable LMSYS Chatbot Arena Elo rankings where Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands the top spot since its early March release, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants in second. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro has held a consistent third position amid intense competition from recent launches like xAI's Grok 4.20 and DeepSeek V3.2, reflecting aggregated user votes that prioritize demonstrated capabilities in blind pairwise battles. This positioning stems from no major leaderboard shifts in the past week, underscoring the wisdom of crowds backed by real capital. Challenges could arise from a late surge in votes for xAI's Grok or an unannounced OpenAI tweak before resolution snapshot, though such volatility has been minimal lately.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$482,345结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Google at 97.8% implied probability for the third-best AI model by end of March, driven by stable LMSYS Chatbot Arena Elo rankings where Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands the top spot since its early March release, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants in second. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro has held a consistent third position amid intense competition from recent launches like xAI's Grok 4.20 and DeepSeek V3.2, reflecting aggregated user votes that prioritize demonstrated capabilities in blind pairwise battles. This positioning stems from no major leaderboard shifts in the past week, underscoring the wisdom of crowds backed by real capital. Challenges could arise from a late surge in votes for xAI's Grok or an unannounced OpenAI tweak before resolution snapshot, though such volatility has been minimal lately.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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