Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview has locked in the #3 position on the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) at 1493 Elo as of the March 26 update, trailing only Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 variants at 1504 and 1500 Elo, driving the 93.8% implied probability among traders risking real capital. This positioning stems from two weeks of leaderboard stability, bolstered by Gemini's strong benchmark performance in text-to-text tasks like coding and creative writing following its early March preview release, amid no credible threats from xAI's Grok or others. With just days until March 31 resolution, upset scenarios remain slim—requiring a surprise model drop, rapid Elo gains from new battles, or rare recount—but could arise if competitors like xAI announce late fine-tunes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Google 93.8%
xAI 3.5%
Anthropic 2.5%
Z.ai <1%
$366,847 交易量
$366,847 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
94%
xAI
4%
Anthropic
2%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
美团
<1%
Google 93.8%
xAI 3.5%
Anthropic 2.5%
Z.ai <1%
$366,847 交易量
$366,847 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
$37,046 交易量
94%
xAI
$29,520 交易量
4%
Anthropic
$33,619 交易量
2%
Z.ai
$130,083 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$15,811 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$23,085 交易量
<1%
OpenAI
$30,507 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$36,206 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$19,343 交易量
<1%
美团
$11,628 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview has locked in the #3 position on the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) at 1493 Elo as of the March 26 update, trailing only Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 variants at 1504 and 1500 Elo, driving the 93.8% implied probability among traders risking real capital. This positioning stems from two weeks of leaderboard stability, bolstered by Gemini's strong benchmark performance in text-to-text tasks like coding and creative writing following its early March preview release, amid no credible threats from xAI's Grok or others. With just days until March 31 resolution, upset scenarios remain slim—requiring a surprise model drop, rapid Elo gains from new battles, or rare recount—but could arise if competitors like xAI announce late fine-tunes.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
交易量
$366,847结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview has locked in the #3 position on the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) at 1493 Elo as of the March 26 update, trailing only Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 variants at 1504 and 1500 Elo, driving the 93.8% implied probability among traders risking real capital. This positioning stems from two weeks of leaderboard stability, bolstered by Gemini's strong benchmark performance in text-to-text tasks like coding and creative writing following its early March preview release, amid no credible threats from xAI's Grok or others. With just days until March 31 resolution, upset scenarios remain slim—requiring a surprise model drop, rapid Elo gains from new battles, or rare recount—but could arise if competitors like xAI announce late fine-tunes.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$366,847结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview has locked in the #3 position on the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) at 1493 Elo as of the March 26 update, trailing only Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 variants at 1504 and 1500 Elo, driving the 93.8% implied probability among traders risking real capital. This positioning stems from two weeks of leaderboard stability, bolstered by Gemini's strong benchmark performance in text-to-text tasks like coding and creative writing following its early March preview release, amid no credible threats from xAI's Grok or others. With just days until March 31 resolution, upset scenarios remain slim—requiring a surprise model drop, rapid Elo gains from new battles, or rare recount—but could arise if competitors like xAI announce late fine-tunes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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