Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro has solidified its position as the consensus #3 AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, driving trader-implied odds to 93.8% for end-of-March rankings with style control enabled. This reflects the model's recent ascent following its February announcement, showcasing superior long-context reasoning and multimodal capabilities that propelled it past competitors like DeepSeek and Mistral in Elo ratings. No major releases from challengers—such as xAI's Grok updates or Anthropic's Claude iterations—have disrupted the top three, dominated by OpenAI's GPT-4o and Claude 3.5 Sonnet. Traders anticipate stability barring an unexpected model drop or benchmark reevaluation before month-end, though rapid AI advancements could introduce volatility.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Google 93.9%
xAI 4.0%
Anthropic 1.5%
OpenAI <1%
$346,012 交易量
$346,012 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
94%
xAI
4%
Anthropic
2%
OpenAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
美团
<1%
Google 93.9%
xAI 4.0%
Anthropic 1.5%
OpenAI <1%
$346,012 交易量
$346,012 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
$36,389 交易量
94%
xAI
$26,695 交易量
4%
Anthropic
$18,285 交易量
2%
OpenAI
$30,096 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$35,596 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$129,674 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$22,676 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$15,628 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$19,343 交易量
<1%
美团
$11,628 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro has solidified its position as the consensus #3 AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, driving trader-implied odds to 93.8% for end-of-March rankings with style control enabled. This reflects the model's recent ascent following its February announcement, showcasing superior long-context reasoning and multimodal capabilities that propelled it past competitors like DeepSeek and Mistral in Elo ratings. No major releases from challengers—such as xAI's Grok updates or Anthropic's Claude iterations—have disrupted the top three, dominated by OpenAI's GPT-4o and Claude 3.5 Sonnet. Traders anticipate stability barring an unexpected model drop or benchmark reevaluation before month-end, though rapid AI advancements could introduce volatility.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
交易量
$346,012结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro has solidified its position as the consensus #3 AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, driving trader-implied odds to 93.8% for end-of-March rankings with style control enabled. This reflects the model's recent ascent following its February announcement, showcasing superior long-context reasoning and multimodal capabilities that propelled it past competitors like DeepSeek and Mistral in Elo ratings. No major releases from challengers—such as xAI's Grok updates or Anthropic's Claude iterations—have disrupted the top three, dominated by OpenAI's GPT-4o and Claude 3.5 Sonnet. Traders anticipate stability barring an unexpected model drop or benchmark reevaluation before month-end, though rapid AI advancements could introduce volatility.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$346,012结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro has solidified its position as the consensus #3 AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, driving trader-implied odds to 93.8% for end-of-March rankings with style control enabled. This reflects the model's recent ascent following its February announcement, showcasing superior long-context reasoning and multimodal capabilities that propelled it past competitors like DeepSeek and Mistral in Elo ratings. No major releases from challengers—such as xAI's Grok updates or Anthropic's Claude iterations—have disrupted the top three, dominated by OpenAI's GPT-4o and Claude 3.5 Sonnet. Traders anticipate stability barring an unexpected model drop or benchmark reevaluation before month-end, though rapid AI advancements could introduce volatility.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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