Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 97.5% implied probability of owning the second-best AI model by end of March 2026, driven by their Claude Opus 4.6 series dominating the top spots on the LMArena.ai Chatbot Arena Leaderboard (style control off). As of March 26, Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 (Thinking) leads at 1504 Arena Score, with the base Claude Opus 4.6 close behind at 1500—well ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1493) and xAI's Grok 4.20 beta (1491). This positioning stems from Anthropic's rapid March releases, including Opus 4.6, Sonnet 4.6, computer-use tools, and expanded context windows, showcasing superior general capabilities in crowdsourced blind evaluations. With resolution via March 31 snapshot, volatility from new votes or rival updates (e.g., xAI or Google refreshes) could challenge the gap, though current vote volumes (12k–15k) suggest stability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Anthropic 97.5%
xAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
谷歌 <1%
$526,563 交易量
$526,563 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
98%
xAI
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
谷歌
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
百度
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
美团
<1%
Anthropic 97.5%
xAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
谷歌 <1%
$526,563 交易量
$526,563 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
$95,677 交易量
98%
xAI
$53,073 交易量
1%
DeepSeek
$151,979 交易量
<1%
谷歌
$122,087 交易量
<1%
OpenAI
$39,622 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$0 交易量
<1%
百度
$0 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$0 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$64,125 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$0 交易量
<1%
美团
$0 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 97.5% implied probability of owning the second-best AI model by end of March 2026, driven by their Claude Opus 4.6 series dominating the top spots on the LMArena.ai Chatbot Arena Leaderboard (style control off). As of March 26, Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 (Thinking) leads at 1504 Arena Score, with the base Claude Opus 4.6 close behind at 1500—well ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1493) and xAI's Grok 4.20 beta (1491). This positioning stems from Anthropic's rapid March releases, including Opus 4.6, Sonnet 4.6, computer-use tools, and expanded context windows, showcasing superior general capabilities in crowdsourced blind evaluations. With resolution via March 31 snapshot, volatility from new votes or rival updates (e.g., xAI or Google refreshes) could challenge the gap, though current vote volumes (12k–15k) suggest stability.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
交易量
$526,563结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 97.5% implied probability of owning the second-best AI model by end of March 2026, driven by their Claude Opus 4.6 series dominating the top spots on the LMArena.ai Chatbot Arena Leaderboard (style control off). As of March 26, Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 (Thinking) leads at 1504 Arena Score, with the base Claude Opus 4.6 close behind at 1500—well ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1493) and xAI's Grok 4.20 beta (1491). This positioning stems from Anthropic's rapid March releases, including Opus 4.6, Sonnet 4.6, computer-use tools, and expanded context windows, showcasing superior general capabilities in crowdsourced blind evaluations. With resolution via March 31 snapshot, volatility from new votes or rival updates (e.g., xAI or Google refreshes) could challenge the gap, though current vote volumes (12k–15k) suggest stability.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$526,563结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 97.5% implied probability of owning the second-best AI model by end of March 2026, driven by their Claude Opus 4.6 series dominating the top spots on the LMArena.ai Chatbot Arena Leaderboard (style control off). As of March 26, Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 (Thinking) leads at 1504 Arena Score, with the base Claude Opus 4.6 close behind at 1500—well ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1493) and xAI's Grok 4.20 beta (1491). This positioning stems from Anthropic's rapid March releases, including Opus 4.6, Sonnet 4.6, computer-use tools, and expanded context windows, showcasing superior general capabilities in crowdsourced blind evaluations. With resolution via March 31 snapshot, volatility from new votes or rival updates (e.g., xAI or Google refreshes) could challenge the gap, though current vote volumes (12k–15k) suggest stability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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