Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic as having the second-best AI model by April 30, with Claude Opus 4.7 implying near-certainty at 100% odds, reflecting its dominant positioning on key benchmarks like the LMSYS Chatbot Arena and Code Arena leaderboards. The model's April 16 release vaulted it to a clear #2 spot behind frontrunners like OpenAI's GPT-5.4, achieving top Elo scores around 1504-1505, superior SWE-bench Verified performance at 82-87%, and sweeping the top four in coding tasks—gaps too wide for rivals like Google Gemini, xAI Grok-4, or DeepSeek to close in the final days. Recent persistent memory enhancements further solidified its edge in agentic workflows. While leaderboard stability and no competing launches support this lock-in, a surprise late release from OpenAI or volatility from mass user battles could theoretically challenge it before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 100.0%
谷歌 <1%
阿里巴巴 <1%
字节跳动 <1%
$232,012 交易量
$232,012 交易量
2026-04-30
Anthropic
是
谷歌
否
阿里巴巴
否
字节跳动
否
Moonshot
否
Z.ai
否
OpenAI
否
xAI
否
百度
否
亚马逊
否
Mistral
否
美团
否
Meta
否
微软
否
DeepSeek
否
Anthropic 100.0%
谷歌 <1%
阿里巴巴 <1%
字节跳动 <1%
$232,012 交易量
$232,012 交易量
2026-04-30
Anthropic
$45,677 交易量
是
谷歌
$20,189 交易量
否
阿里巴巴
$8,238 交易量
否
字节跳动
$9,064 交易量
否
Moonshot
$9,521 交易量
否
Z.ai
$8,623 交易量
否
OpenAI
$32,766 交易量
否
xAI
$10,315 交易量
否
百度
$9,014 交易量
否
亚马逊
$8,592 交易量
否
Mistral
$13,219 交易量
否
美团
$10,663 交易量
否
Meta
$10,382 交易量
否
微软
$6,981 交易量
否
DeepSeek
$28,768 交易量
否
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic as having the second-best AI model by April 30, with Claude Opus 4.7 implying near-certainty at 100% odds, reflecting its dominant positioning on key benchmarks like the LMSYS Chatbot Arena and Code Arena leaderboards. The model's April 16 release vaulted it to a clear #2 spot behind frontrunners like OpenAI's GPT-5.4, achieving top Elo scores around 1504-1505, superior SWE-bench Verified performance at 82-87%, and sweeping the top four in coding tasks—gaps too wide for rivals like Google Gemini, xAI Grok-4, or DeepSeek to close in the final days. Recent persistent memory enhancements further solidified its edge in agentic workflows. While leaderboard stability and no competing launches support this lock-in, a surprise late release from OpenAI or volatility from mass user battles could theoretically challenge it before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
交易量
$232,012结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: 是
无争议
最终结果: 是
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic as having the second-best AI model by April 30, with Claude Opus 4.7 implying near-certainty at 100% odds, reflecting its dominant positioning on key benchmarks like the LMSYS Chatbot Arena and Code Arena leaderboards. The model's April 16 release vaulted it to a clear #2 spot behind frontrunners like OpenAI's GPT-5.4, achieving top Elo scores around 1504-1505, superior SWE-bench Verified performance at 82-87%, and sweeping the top four in coding tasks—gaps too wide for rivals like Google Gemini, xAI Grok-4, or DeepSeek to close in the final days. Recent persistent memory enhancements further solidified its edge in agentic workflows. While leaderboard stability and no competing launches support this lock-in, a surprise late release from OpenAI or volatility from mass user battles could theoretically challenge it before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$232,012结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: 是
无争议
最终结果: 是
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic as having the second-best AI model by April 30, with Claude Opus 4.7 implying near-certainty at 100% odds, reflecting its dominant positioning on key benchmarks like the LMSYS Chatbot Arena and Code Arena leaderboards. The model's April 16 release vaulted it to a clear #2 spot behind frontrunners like OpenAI's GPT-5.4, achieving top Elo scores around 1504-1505, superior SWE-bench Verified performance at 82-87%, and sweeping the top four in coding tasks—gaps too wide for rivals like Google Gemini, xAI Grok-4, or DeepSeek to close in the final days. Recent persistent memory enhancements further solidified its edge in agentic workflows. While leaderboard stability and no competing launches support this lock-in, a surprise late release from OpenAI or volatility from mass user battles could theoretically challenge it before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题