Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 recently surged to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo score near 1550—1549 on coding and around 1500 overall—surpassing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, fueling its 38.5% market-implied odds as trader consensus favors the firm for the first 1550 overall breakthrough in 2026. The "None in 2026" outcome at 40% reflects skepticism over scaling hurdles, including compute shortages and potential benchmark saturation, despite rapid frontier model iterations from labs like xAI's Grok 4 and DeepSeek. Key differentiators include Anthropic's aggressive release cadence—multiple Claude upgrades since January—and strengths in agentic reasoning and coding, though upcoming GPT-5 variants or Gemini previews could shift the closely contested race before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年无人达到 40%
Anthropic 39%
OpenAI 12%
谷歌 10%
$31,414 交易量
$31,414 交易量
2026-12-31
2026年无人达到
40%
Anthropic
39%
OpenAI
12%
谷歌
10%
DeepSeek
2%
xAI
1%
阿里巴巴
1%
Z.ai
1%
Mistral
<1%
2026年无人达到 40%
Anthropic 39%
OpenAI 12%
谷歌 10%
$31,414 交易量
$31,414 交易量
2026-12-31
2026年无人达到
$5,082 交易量
40%
Anthropic
$3,500 交易量
39%
OpenAI
$5,104 交易量
12%
谷歌
$5,030 交易量
10%
DeepSeek
$2,468 交易量
2%
xAI
$3,961 交易量
1%
阿里巴巴
$2,122 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$2,060 交易量
1%
Mistral
$2,086 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 recently surged to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo score near 1550—1549 on coding and around 1500 overall—surpassing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, fueling its 38.5% market-implied odds as trader consensus favors the firm for the first 1550 overall breakthrough in 2026. The "None in 2026" outcome at 40% reflects skepticism over scaling hurdles, including compute shortages and potential benchmark saturation, despite rapid frontier model iterations from labs like xAI's Grok 4 and DeepSeek. Key differentiators include Anthropic's aggressive release cadence—multiple Claude upgrades since January—and strengths in agentic reasoning and coding, though upcoming GPT-5 variants or Gemini previews could shift the closely contested race before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
市场开放时间： Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
交易量
$31,414结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 recently surged to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo score near 1550—1549 on coding and around 1500 overall—surpassing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, fueling its 38.5% market-implied odds as trader consensus favors the firm for the first 1550 overall breakthrough in 2026. The "None in 2026" outcome at 40% reflects skepticism over scaling hurdles, including compute shortages and potential benchmark saturation, despite rapid frontier model iterations from labs like xAI's Grok 4 and DeepSeek. Key differentiators include Anthropic's aggressive release cadence—multiple Claude upgrades since January—and strengths in agentic reasoning and coding, though upcoming GPT-5 variants or Gemini previews could shift the closely contested race before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
交易量
$31,414结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 recently surged to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo score near 1550—1549 on coding and around 1500 overall—surpassing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, fueling its 38.5% market-implied odds as trader consensus favors the firm for the first 1550 overall breakthrough in 2026. The "None in 2026" outcome at 40% reflects skepticism over scaling hurdles, including compute shortages and potential benchmark saturation, despite rapid frontier model iterations from labs like xAI's Grok 4 and DeepSeek. Key differentiators include Anthropic's aggressive release cadence—multiple Claude upgrades since January—and strengths in agentic reasoning and coding, though upcoming GPT-5 variants or Gemini previews could shift the closely contested race before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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