Google's Gemini 3 Pro recently reclaimed the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo score above 1490, edging out xAI's Grok-4.1-Thinking at 1477, following a flurry of frontier model releases in March 2026 that included OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants, Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6, and Alibaba's Qwen3.5 series. This unprecedented wave—over a dozen models in weeks—has intensified competitive dynamics, with Anthropic maintaining leads in code, search, and document arenas, reflecting trader focus on versatile capabilities amid benchmark volatility. Upcoming Q2 announcements from labs like Meta and DeepSeek could shift positioning before June 30 resolution, underscoring prediction markets' wisdom-of-crowds efficiency in pricing rapid AI progress.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$1,165,391 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
OpenAI
29%
xAI
16%
DeepSeek
8%
阿里巴巴
8%
Meta
6%
Z.ai
5%
百度
4%
Mistral
4%
英伟达
3%
美团
3%
$1,165,391 交易量
OpenAI
$337,574 交易量
29%
xAI
$537,589 交易量
16%
DeepSeek
$23,023 交易量
8%
阿里巴巴
$4,633 交易量
8%
Meta
$0 交易量
6%
Z.ai
$0 交易量
5%
百度
$1,906 交易量
4%
Mistral
$0 交易量
4%
英伟达
$0 交易量
3%
美团
$2,695 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Google's Gemini 3 Pro recently reclaimed the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo score above 1490, edging out xAI's Grok-4.1-Thinking at 1477, following a flurry of frontier model releases in March 2026 that included OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants, Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6, and Alibaba's Qwen3.5 series. This unprecedented wave—over a dozen models in weeks—has intensified competitive dynamics, with Anthropic maintaining leads in code, search, and document arenas, reflecting trader focus on versatile capabilities amid benchmark volatility. Upcoming Q2 announcements from labs like Meta and DeepSeek could shift positioning before June 30 resolution, underscoring prediction markets' wisdom-of-crowds efficiency in pricing rapid AI progress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
市场开放时间： Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
交易量
$1,165,391结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Google's Gemini 3 Pro recently reclaimed the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo score above 1490, edging out xAI's Grok-4.1-Thinking at 1477, following a flurry of frontier model releases in March 2026 that included OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants, Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6, and Alibaba's Qwen3.5 series. This unprecedented wave—over a dozen models in weeks—has intensified competitive dynamics, with Anthropic maintaining leads in code, search, and document arenas, reflecting trader focus on versatile capabilities amid benchmark volatility. Upcoming Q2 announcements from labs like Meta and DeepSeek could shift positioning before June 30 resolution, underscoring prediction markets' wisdom-of-crowds efficiency in pricing rapid AI progress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
交易量
$1,165,391结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Google's Gemini 3 Pro recently reclaimed the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo score above 1490, edging out xAI's Grok-4.1-Thinking at 1477, following a flurry of frontier model releases in March 2026 that included OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants, Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6, and Alibaba's Qwen3.5 series. This unprecedented wave—over a dozen models in weeks—has intensified competitive dynamics, with Anthropic maintaining leads in code, search, and document arenas, reflecting trader focus on versatile capabilities amid benchmark volatility. Upcoming Q2 announcements from labs like Meta and DeepSeek could shift positioning before June 30 resolution, underscoring prediction markets' wisdom-of-crowds efficiency in pricing rapid AI progress.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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