Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 has surged to the top of the LMArena Chatbot Arena text, code, search, and document leaderboards since its early March 2026 release, propelled by superior reasoning and low hallucination rates in crowdsourced evaluations exceeding 24 million votes. This dominance stems from a frenetic week of frontier large language model launches around March 10–16, including OpenAI's GPT-5.4 with its 1.05 million-token context and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro for multimodal prowess, intensifying competition. xAI's Grok-4.1 Thinking trails closely in text rankings, while Meta delayed its Avocado model amid performance issues. Traders eye upcoming developer previews and benchmark updates through June 30 resolution, where scaling laws and agentic capabilities could crown a new leader amid volatile leaderboard shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$1,165,384 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
OpenAI
29%
xAI
16%
DeepSeek
8%
阿里巴巴
8%
Meta
6%
Z.ai
5%
百度
4%
Mistral
4%
英伟达
3%
美团
3%
$1,165,384 交易量
OpenAI
$337,567 交易量
29%
xAI
$537,589 交易量
16%
DeepSeek
$23,023 交易量
8%
阿里巴巴
$4,633 交易量
8%
Meta
$0 交易量
6%
Z.ai
$0 交易量
5%
百度
$1,906 交易量
4%
Mistral
$0 交易量
4%
英伟达
$0 交易量
3%
美团
$2,695 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 has surged to the top of the LMArena Chatbot Arena text, code, search, and document leaderboards since its early March 2026 release, propelled by superior reasoning and low hallucination rates in crowdsourced evaluations exceeding 24 million votes. This dominance stems from a frenetic week of frontier large language model launches around March 10–16, including OpenAI's GPT-5.4 with its 1.05 million-token context and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro for multimodal prowess, intensifying competition. xAI's Grok-4.1 Thinking trails closely in text rankings, while Meta delayed its Avocado model amid performance issues. Traders eye upcoming developer previews and benchmark updates through June 30 resolution, where scaling laws and agentic capabilities could crown a new leader amid volatile leaderboard shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
市场开放时间： Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
交易量
$1,165,384结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 has surged to the top of the LMArena Chatbot Arena text, code, search, and document leaderboards since its early March 2026 release, propelled by superior reasoning and low hallucination rates in crowdsourced evaluations exceeding 24 million votes. This dominance stems from a frenetic week of frontier large language model launches around March 10–16, including OpenAI's GPT-5.4 with its 1.05 million-token context and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro for multimodal prowess, intensifying competition. xAI's Grok-4.1 Thinking trails closely in text rankings, while Meta delayed its Avocado model amid performance issues. Traders eye upcoming developer previews and benchmark updates through June 30 resolution, where scaling laws and agentic capabilities could crown a new leader amid volatile leaderboard shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
交易量
$1,165,384结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 has surged to the top of the LMArena Chatbot Arena text, code, search, and document leaderboards since its early March 2026 release, propelled by superior reasoning and low hallucination rates in crowdsourced evaluations exceeding 24 million votes. This dominance stems from a frenetic week of frontier large language model launches around March 10–16, including OpenAI's GPT-5.4 with its 1.05 million-token context and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro for multimodal prowess, intensifying competition. xAI's Grok-4.1 Thinking trails closely in text rankings, while Meta delayed its Avocado model amid performance issues. Traders eye upcoming developer previews and benchmark updates through June 30 resolution, where scaling laws and agentic capabilities could crown a new leader amid volatile leaderboard shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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