Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 350,000–375,000 Tesla vehicle deliveries in Q1 2026 at 85.5% implied probability, closely aligning with Tesla's March 26 analyst consensus of 365,645 units—an 8.6% year-over-year increase from Q1 2025's 336,681 amid seasonal headwinds like Chinese New Year factory slowdowns and Model Y refresh changeovers. Recent catalysts include Tesla China's March wholesale surge to 85,670 vehicles (up 46% month-over-month), strong European sales like France's record March, and positive regional reporting offsetting softer U.S. demand signals. Official numbers are due early this week, with upside risks from high-end production estimates near 450,000 potentially pushing toward 375,000–400,000 (6.9%), while sub-350,000 fears linger at 9% on global EV competition.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于35万–37.5万 86%
少于35万 8%
37.5万–40万 7.0%
40万–42.5万 <1%
$853,362 交易量
$853,362 交易量
少于35万
8%
35万–37.5万
86%
37.5万–40万
7%
40万–42.5万
<1%
425,000–450,000
<1%
45万–47.5万
<1%
47.5万–50万
<1%
50万+
<1%
35万–37.5万 86%
少于35万 8%
37.5万–40万 7.0%
40万–42.5万 <1%
$853,362 交易量
$853,362 交易量
少于35万
8%
35万–37.5万
86%
37.5万–40万
7%
40万–42.5万
<1%
425,000–450,000
<1%
45万–47.5万
<1%
47.5万–50万
<1%
50万+
<1%
If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
市场开放时间： Jan 2, 2026, 2:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 350,000–375,000 Tesla vehicle deliveries in Q1 2026 at 85.5% implied probability, closely aligning with Tesla's March 26 analyst consensus of 365,645 units—an 8.6% year-over-year increase from Q1 2025's 336,681 amid seasonal headwinds like Chinese New Year factory slowdowns and Model Y refresh changeovers. Recent catalysts include Tesla China's March wholesale surge to 85,670 vehicles (up 46% month-over-month), strong European sales like France's record March, and positive regional reporting offsetting softer U.S. demand signals. Official numbers are due early this week, with upside risks from high-end production estimates near 450,000 potentially pushing toward 375,000–400,000 (6.9%), while sub-350,000 fears linger at 9% on global EV competition.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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