Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 72.5% implied probability for "No" ban of X in any European country by December 31, driven by the platform's successful navigation of escalating Digital Services Act (DSA) scrutiny without triggering outright prohibition. The European Commission's €120 million fine in December 2025 over verification transparency and ad library issues prompted X to appeal at the EU General Court in February 2026, while announcing EU-specific verification changes ahead of the March payment deadline. French raids on X's Paris offices in early 2026 highlighted algorithm concerns, yet regulators have opted for fines over bans, aligning with DSA's graduated enforcement. Ongoing litigation and X's compliance adaptations reduce near-term ban risks, though further DSA probes or court setbacks could shift sentiment before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-12-31
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the use of X/Twitter is banned within any European country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 72.5% implied probability for "No" ban of X in any European country by December 31, driven by the platform's successful navigation of escalating Digital Services Act (DSA) scrutiny without triggering outright prohibition. The European Commission's €120 million fine in December 2025 over verification transparency and ad library issues prompted X to appeal at the EU General Court in February 2026, while announcing EU-specific verification changes ahead of the March payment deadline. French raids on X's Paris offices in early 2026 highlighted algorithm concerns, yet regulators have opted for fines over bans, aligning with DSA's graduated enforcement. Ongoing litigation and X's compliance adaptations reduce near-term ban risks, though further DSA probes or court setbacks could shift sentiment before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the use of X/Twitter is banned within any European country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 3:50 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the use of X/Twitter is banned within any European country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 72.5% implied probability for "No" ban of X in any European country by December 31, driven by the platform's successful navigation of escalating Digital Services Act (DSA) scrutiny without triggering outright prohibition. The European Commission's €120 million fine in December 2025 over verification transparency and ad library issues prompted X to appeal at the EU General Court in February 2026, while announcing EU-specific verification changes ahead of the March payment deadline. French raids on X's Paris offices in early 2026 highlighted algorithm concerns, yet regulators have opted for fines over bans, aligning with DSA's graduated enforcement. Ongoing litigation and X's compliance adaptations reduce near-term ban risks, though further DSA probes or court setbacks could shift sentiment before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the use of X/Twitter is banned within any European country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 72.5% implied probability for "No" ban of X in any European country by December 31, driven by the platform's successful navigation of escalating Digital Services Act (DSA) scrutiny without triggering outright prohibition. The European Commission's €120 million fine in December 2025 over verification transparency and ad library issues prompted X to appeal at the EU General Court in February 2026, while announcing EU-specific verification changes ahead of the March payment deadline. French raids on X's Paris offices in early 2026 highlighted algorithm concerns, yet regulators have opted for fines over bans, aligning with DSA's graduated enforcement. Ongoing litigation and X's compliance adaptations reduce near-term ban risks, though further DSA probes or court setbacks could shift sentiment before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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