Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for "No" on Elon Musk paying TSA salaries, driven by the White House's swift rejection of his March 21, 2026, X post offer amid the partial DHS shutdown over immigration funding disputes. Federal law prohibits agencies from accepting private salary payments for government employees, creating insurmountable regulatory barriers despite initial support from President Trump. The shutdown resolved via a congressional funding deal around April 1, with TSA workers backpaid through executive order, obviating any need for private intervention. No announcements from Musk or his companies—Tesla, SpaceX, or xAI—indicate payments. Realistic shifts remain negligible, as only an unprecedented legal workaround or retroactive donation misinterpreted as direct salary could theoretically trigger resolution to Yes, though traders see zero viable path forward.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$93,754 交易量
$93,754 交易量
2026-04-14
$93,754 交易量
$93,754 交易量
2026-04-14
Elon Musk offered to pay the salaries of Transportation Security Administration employees affected by the Department of Homeland Security shutdown that began on February 14, 2026 (see: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2035306094281855336?s=20).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Elon Musk, or a company for which Elon Musk is the largest shareholder, pays any Transportation Security Administration (TSA) employee for time during the shutdown for which that employee has not been paid by the U.S. government by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying compensation may be provided directly to affected TSA employees, indirectly through a third-party vehicle, or through funding provided to the U.S. government for the expressed purpose of compensating affected TSA employees.
An official announcement from the United States government, or from Elon Musk and subsequently confirmed by the United States government, that Elon Musk will provide qualifying compensation to any TSA employee will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether receipt of payment has yet been publicly confirmed.
Offers, statements of intent, proposals, or other supportive statements that are not accompanied by an official announcement as described above will not qualify.
Payments that will later be returned once DHS funding is supplied may still qualify, provided Elon Musk supplies the initial monetary payment.
Assistance that is not monetary payment, including donations of food, transportation, or other non-wage benefits, will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Elon Musk, the United States federal government, and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for "No" on Elon Musk paying TSA salaries, driven by the White House's swift rejection of his March 21, 2026, X post offer amid the partial DHS shutdown over immigration funding disputes. Federal law prohibits agencies from accepting private salary payments for government employees, creating insurmountable regulatory barriers despite initial support from President Trump. The shutdown resolved via a congressional funding deal around April 1, with TSA workers backpaid through executive order, obviating any need for private intervention. No announcements from Musk or his companies—Tesla, SpaceX, or xAI—indicate payments. Realistic shifts remain negligible, as only an unprecedented legal workaround or retroactive donation misinterpreted as direct salary could theoretically trigger resolution to Yes, though traders see zero viable path forward.
Elon Musk offered to pay the salaries of Transportation Security Administration employees affected by the Department of Homeland Security shutdown that began on February 14, 2026 (see: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2035306094281855336?s=20).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Elon Musk, or a company for which Elon Musk is the largest shareholder, pays any Transportation Security Administration (TSA) employee for time during the shutdown for which that employee has not been paid by the U.S. government by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying compensation may be provided directly to affected TSA employees, indirectly through a third-party vehicle, or through funding provided to the U.S. government for the expressed purpose of compensating affected TSA employees.
An official announcement from the United States government, or from Elon Musk and subsequently confirmed by the United States government, that Elon Musk will provide qualifying compensation to any TSA employee will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether receipt of payment has yet been publicly confirmed.
Offers, statements of intent, proposals, or other supportive statements that are not accompanied by an official announcement as described above will not qualify.
Payments that will later be returned once DHS funding is supplied may still qualify, provided Elon Musk supplies the initial monetary payment.
Assistance that is not monetary payment, including donations of food, transportation, or other non-wage benefits, will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Elon Musk, the United States federal government, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Elon Musk, or a company for which Elon Musk is the largest shareholder, pays any Transportation Security Administration (TSA) employee for time during the shutdown for which that employee has not been paid by the U.S. government by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying compensation may be provided directly to affected TSA employees, indirectly through a third-party vehicle, or through funding provided to the U.S. government for the expressed purpose of compensating affected TSA employees.
An official announcement from the United States government, or from Elon Musk and subsequently confirmed by the United States government, that Elon Musk will provide qualifying compensation to any TSA employee will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether receipt of payment has yet been publicly confirmed.
Offers, statements of intent, proposals, or other supportive statements that are not accompanied by an official announcement as described above will not qualify.
Payments that will later be returned once DHS funding is supplied may still qualify, provided Elon Musk supplies the initial monetary payment.
Assistance that is not monetary payment, including donations of food, transportation, or other non-wage benefits, will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Elon Musk, the United States federal government, and a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 23, 2026, 11:30 AM ET
交易量
$93,754结束日期
2026-04-14市场开放时间
Mar 23, 2026, 11:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Elon Musk offered to pay the salaries of Transportation Security Administration employees affected by the Department of Homeland Security shutdown that began on February 14, 2026 (see: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2035306094281855336?s=20).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Elon Musk, or a company for which Elon Musk is the largest shareholder, pays any Transportation Security Administration (TSA) employee for time during the shutdown for which that employee has not been paid by the U.S. government by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying compensation may be provided directly to affected TSA employees, indirectly through a third-party vehicle, or through funding provided to the U.S. government for the expressed purpose of compensating affected TSA employees.
An official announcement from the United States government, or from Elon Musk and subsequently confirmed by the United States government, that Elon Musk will provide qualifying compensation to any TSA employee will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether receipt of payment has yet been publicly confirmed.
Offers, statements of intent, proposals, or other supportive statements that are not accompanied by an official announcement as described above will not qualify.
Payments that will later be returned once DHS funding is supplied may still qualify, provided Elon Musk supplies the initial monetary payment.
Assistance that is not monetary payment, including donations of food, transportation, or other non-wage benefits, will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Elon Musk, the United States federal government, and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for "No" on Elon Musk paying TSA salaries, driven by the White House's swift rejection of his March 21, 2026, X post offer amid the partial DHS shutdown over immigration funding disputes. Federal law prohibits agencies from accepting private salary payments for government employees, creating insurmountable regulatory barriers despite initial support from President Trump. The shutdown resolved via a congressional funding deal around April 1, with TSA workers backpaid through executive order, obviating any need for private intervention. No announcements from Musk or his companies—Tesla, SpaceX, or xAI—indicate payments. Realistic shifts remain negligible, as only an unprecedented legal workaround or retroactive donation misinterpreted as direct salary could theoretically trigger resolution to Yes, though traders see zero viable path forward.
Elon Musk offered to pay the salaries of Transportation Security Administration employees affected by the Department of Homeland Security shutdown that began on February 14, 2026 (see: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2035306094281855336?s=20).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Elon Musk, or a company for which Elon Musk is the largest shareholder, pays any Transportation Security Administration (TSA) employee for time during the shutdown for which that employee has not been paid by the U.S. government by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying compensation may be provided directly to affected TSA employees, indirectly through a third-party vehicle, or through funding provided to the U.S. government for the expressed purpose of compensating affected TSA employees.
An official announcement from the United States government, or from Elon Musk and subsequently confirmed by the United States government, that Elon Musk will provide qualifying compensation to any TSA employee will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether receipt of payment has yet been publicly confirmed.
Offers, statements of intent, proposals, or other supportive statements that are not accompanied by an official announcement as described above will not qualify.
Payments that will later be returned once DHS funding is supplied may still qualify, provided Elon Musk supplies the initial monetary payment.
Assistance that is not monetary payment, including donations of food, transportation, or other non-wage benefits, will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Elon Musk, the United States federal government, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Elon Musk, or a company for which Elon Musk is the largest shareholder, pays any Transportation Security Administration (TSA) employee for time during the shutdown for which that employee has not been paid by the U.S. government by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying compensation may be provided directly to affected TSA employees, indirectly through a third-party vehicle, or through funding provided to the U.S. government for the expressed purpose of compensating affected TSA employees.
An official announcement from the United States government, or from Elon Musk and subsequently confirmed by the United States government, that Elon Musk will provide qualifying compensation to any TSA employee will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether receipt of payment has yet been publicly confirmed.
Offers, statements of intent, proposals, or other supportive statements that are not accompanied by an official announcement as described above will not qualify.
Payments that will later be returned once DHS funding is supplied may still qualify, provided Elon Musk supplies the initial monetary payment.
Assistance that is not monetary payment, including donations of food, transportation, or other non-wage benefits, will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Elon Musk, the United States federal government, and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$93,754结束日期
2026-04-14市场开放时间
Mar 23, 2026, 11:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for "No" on Elon Musk paying TSA salaries, driven by the White House's swift rejection of his March 21, 2026, X post offer amid the partial DHS shutdown over immigration funding disputes. Federal law prohibits agencies from accepting private salary payments for government employees, creating insurmountable regulatory barriers despite initial support from President Trump. The shutdown resolved via a congressional funding deal around April 1, with TSA workers backpaid through executive order, obviating any need for private intervention. No announcements from Musk or his companies—Tesla, SpaceX, or xAI—indicate payments. Realistic shifts remain negligible, as only an unprecedented legal workaround or retroactive donation misinterpreted as direct salary could theoretically trigger resolution to Yes, though traders see zero viable path forward.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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