Polymarket traders assign a 33.7% implied probability to the federal funds rate settling at 3.75% by end-2026, ahead of 3.5% at 23.5%, signaling a wide-open field with trader consensus around a 3.6-3.7% terminal rate—higher than the FOMC's September dot plot median of 3.1%. This divergence stems from sticky core inflation at 3.3% year-over-year in October data, robust wage growth despite a soft October nonfarm payrolls print of +12,000, and fiscal deficits pushing neutral rate estimates above pre-pandemic 2.5% levels. Labor market resilience tempers aggressive easing bets, while upcoming December FOMC and November CPI release could refine the policy path amid balanced risk dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于3.75% 34.0%
3.5% 24%
3.25% 16%
4.0% 10.3%
$4,129,957 交易量
$4,129,957 交易量
Dec 9, 2026
≤1.0%
1%
1.25
1%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
<1%
2.0%
1%
2.25%
1%
2.5%
1%
2.75%
7%
3.0%
4%
3.25%
16%
3.5%
24%
3.75%
34%
4.0%
10%
4.25%
2%
大于等于4.5%
2%
3.75% 34.0%
3.5% 24%
3.25% 16%
4.0% 10.3%
$4,129,957 交易量
$4,129,957 交易量
Dec 9, 2026
≤1.0%
$191,118 交易量
1%
1.25
$95,485 交易量
1%
1.5%
$108,051 交易量
<1%
1.75%
$93,130 交易量
<1%
2.0%
$93,992 交易量
1%
2.25%
$52,910 交易量
1%
2.5%
$81,141 交易量
1%
2.75%
$23,129 交易量
7%
3.0%
$299,033 交易量
4%
3.25%
$36,841 交易量
16%
3.5%
$55,526 交易量
24%
3.75%
$351,946 交易量
34%
4.0%
$1,126,747 交易量
10%
4.25%
$364,631 交易量
2%
大于等于4.5%
$1,162,460 交易量
2%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Polymarket traders assign a 33.7% implied probability to the federal funds rate settling at 3.75% by end-2026, ahead of 3.5% at 23.5%, signaling a wide-open field with trader consensus around a 3.6-3.7% terminal rate—higher than the FOMC's September dot plot median of 3.1%. This divergence stems from sticky core inflation at 3.3% year-over-year in October data, robust wage growth despite a soft October nonfarm payrolls print of +12,000, and fiscal deficits pushing neutral rate estimates above pre-pandemic 2.5% levels. Labor market resilience tempers aggressive easing bets, while upcoming December FOMC and November CPI release could refine the policy path amid balanced risk dynamics.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
市场开放时间： Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
交易量
$4,129,957结束日期
Dec 9, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Polymarket traders assign a 33.7% implied probability to the federal funds rate settling at 3.75% by end-2026, ahead of 3.5% at 23.5%, signaling a wide-open field with trader consensus around a 3.6-3.7% terminal rate—higher than the FOMC's September dot plot median of 3.1%. This divergence stems from sticky core inflation at 3.3% year-over-year in October data, robust wage growth despite a soft October nonfarm payrolls print of +12,000, and fiscal deficits pushing neutral rate estimates above pre-pandemic 2.5% levels. Labor market resilience tempers aggressive easing bets, while upcoming December FOMC and November CPI release could refine the policy path amid balanced risk dynamics.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
交易量
$4,129,957结束日期
Dec 9, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 33.7% implied probability to the federal funds rate settling at 3.75% by end-2026, ahead of 3.5% at 23.5%, signaling a wide-open field with trader consensus around a 3.6-3.7% terminal rate—higher than the FOMC's September dot plot median of 3.1%. This divergence stems from sticky core inflation at 3.3% year-over-year in October data, robust wage growth despite a soft October nonfarm payrolls print of +12,000, and fiscal deficits pushing neutral rate estimates above pre-pandemic 2.5% levels. Labor market resilience tempers aggressive easing bets, while upcoming December FOMC and November CPI release could refine the policy path amid balanced risk dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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