Recent FOMC decisions to hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50-3.75% range through April 2026 have reinforced trader consensus around a 3.75% terminal rate by year-end, amid persistent inflation pressures from geopolitical energy shocks and a resilient labor market. Market-implied odds now assign 58% probability to that outcome, with the 4.00% level trailing at 15%, as forward-looking projections from major brokerages and CME FedWatch futures increasingly price in delayed or minimal easing rather than the multiple cuts anticipated earlier. Upcoming June CPI data and the next FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities if core PCE readings moderate more rapidly than current consensus estimates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于3.75% 58.2%
4.0% 15.4%
3.25% 8%
3.5% 7%
$6,523,387 交易量
$6,523,387 交易量
2026-12-09
≤1.0%
<1%
1.25
1%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
1%
2.0%
<1%
2.25%
<1%
2.5%
1%
2.75%
1%
3.0%
4%
3.25%
8%
3.5%
7%
3.75%
58%
4.0%
15%
4.25%
4%
大于等于4.5%
1%
3.75% 58.2%
4.0% 15.4%
3.25% 8%
3.5% 7%
$6,523,387 交易量
$6,523,387 交易量
2026-12-09
≤1.0%
$216,014 交易量
<1%
1.25
$134,363 交易量
1%
1.5%
$134,117 交易量
<1%
1.75%
$134,015 交易量
1%
2.0%
$246,025 交易量
<1%
2.25%
$70,849 交易量
<1%
2.5%
$158,852 交易量
1%
2.75%
$46,024 交易量
1%
3.0%
$454,736 交易量
4%
3.25%
$51,537 交易量
8%
3.5%
$190,202 交易量
7%
3.75%
$518,444 交易量
58%
4.0%
$1,358,628 交易量
15%
4.25%
$413,541 交易量
4%
大于等于4.5%
$2,396,040 交易量
1%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent FOMC decisions to hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50-3.75% range through April 2026 have reinforced trader consensus around a 3.75% terminal rate by year-end, amid persistent inflation pressures from geopolitical energy shocks and a resilient labor market. Market-implied odds now assign 58% probability to that outcome, with the 4.00% level trailing at 15%, as forward-looking projections from major brokerages and CME FedWatch futures increasingly price in delayed or minimal easing rather than the multiple cuts anticipated earlier. Upcoming June CPI data and the next FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities if core PCE readings moderate more rapidly than current consensus estimates.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
市场开放时间： Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
交易量
$6,523,387结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent FOMC decisions to hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50-3.75% range through April 2026 have reinforced trader consensus around a 3.75% terminal rate by year-end, amid persistent inflation pressures from geopolitical energy shocks and a resilient labor market. Market-implied odds now assign 58% probability to that outcome, with the 4.00% level trailing at 15%, as forward-looking projections from major brokerages and CME FedWatch futures increasingly price in delayed or minimal easing rather than the multiple cuts anticipated earlier. Upcoming June CPI data and the next FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities if core PCE readings moderate more rapidly than current consensus estimates.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
交易量
$6,523,387结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent FOMC decisions to hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50-3.75% range through April 2026 have reinforced trader consensus around a 3.75% terminal rate by year-end, amid persistent inflation pressures from geopolitical energy shocks and a resilient labor market. Market-implied odds now assign 58% probability to that outcome, with the 4.00% level trailing at 15%, as forward-looking projections from major brokerages and CME FedWatch futures increasingly price in delayed or minimal easing rather than the multiple cuts anticipated earlier. Upcoming June CPI data and the next FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities if core PCE readings moderate more rapidly than current consensus estimates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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