Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings and resilient consumer spending have lifted the implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike as early as December 2026, with CME FedWatch tool now assigning roughly 51% odds for that timing and 60% by January. Yet the federal funds target range remains anchored at 3.50%-3.75% following the April FOMC decision, and major brokerages such as Bank of America project no policy change through year-end amid mixed labor-market signals and persistent but contained core PCE pressures. Traders view the current market-implied odds of roughly 68.5% against a 2026 hike as reflecting the Fed’s data-dependent stance and the still-elevated threshold for tightening. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC meeting and May CPI and PCE releases that could clarify whether upside inflation risks outweigh downside employment risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$1,103,562 交易量
$1,103,562 交易量
2026-12-09
是
$1,103,562 交易量
$1,103,562 交易量
2026-12-09
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings and resilient consumer spending have lifted the implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike as early as December 2026, with CME FedWatch tool now assigning roughly 51% odds for that timing and 60% by January. Yet the federal funds target range remains anchored at 3.50%-3.75% following the April FOMC decision, and major brokerages such as Bank of America project no policy change through year-end amid mixed labor-market signals and persistent but contained core PCE pressures. Traders view the current market-implied odds of roughly 68.5% against a 2026 hike as reflecting the Fed’s data-dependent stance and the still-elevated threshold for tightening. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC meeting and May CPI and PCE releases that could clarify whether upside inflation risks outweigh downside employment risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
交易量
$1,103,562结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings and resilient consumer spending have lifted the implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike as early as December 2026, with CME FedWatch tool now assigning roughly 51% odds for that timing and 60% by January. Yet the federal funds target range remains anchored at 3.50%-3.75% following the April FOMC decision, and major brokerages such as Bank of America project no policy change through year-end amid mixed labor-market signals and persistent but contained core PCE pressures. Traders view the current market-implied odds of roughly 68.5% against a 2026 hike as reflecting the Fed’s data-dependent stance and the still-elevated threshold for tightening. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC meeting and May CPI and PCE releases that could clarify whether upside inflation risks outweigh downside employment risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$1,103,562结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings and resilient consumer spending have lifted the implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike as early as December 2026, with CME FedWatch tool now assigning roughly 51% odds for that timing and 60% by January. Yet the federal funds target range remains anchored at 3.50%-3.75% following the April FOMC decision, and major brokerages such as Bank of America project no policy change through year-end amid mixed labor-market signals and persistent but contained core PCE pressures. Traders view the current market-implied odds of roughly 68.5% against a 2026 hike as reflecting the Fed’s data-dependent stance and the still-elevated threshold for tightening. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC meeting and May CPI and PCE releases that could clarify whether upside inflation risks outweigh downside employment risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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