Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven primarily by the FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid stable inflation and softening labor conditions. February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, matching January and near the Fed's 2% target, while nonfarm payrolls declined 92,000 and unemployment edged to 4.4%, reducing tightening pressures. The dot plot signals rates holding in a 3.25%-3.75% range by year-end, with only modest cut odds. Hawkish tail risks from surging Treasury yields and geopolitical tensions have lifted hike probabilities to around 12-24% in derivatives markets, but consensus favors steady policy. Watch March CPI on April 10 for shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$647,045 交易量
$647,045 交易量
Dec 9, 2026
是
$647,045 交易量
$647,045 交易量
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven primarily by the FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid stable inflation and softening labor conditions. February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, matching January and near the Fed's 2% target, while nonfarm payrolls declined 92,000 and unemployment edged to 4.4%, reducing tightening pressures. The dot plot signals rates holding in a 3.25%-3.75% range by year-end, with only modest cut odds. Hawkish tail risks from surging Treasury yields and geopolitical tensions have lifted hike probabilities to around 12-24% in derivatives markets, but consensus favors steady policy. Watch March CPI on April 10 for shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
交易量
$647,045结束日期
Dec 9, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven primarily by the FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid stable inflation and softening labor conditions. February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, matching January and near the Fed's 2% target, while nonfarm payrolls declined 92,000 and unemployment edged to 4.4%, reducing tightening pressures. The dot plot signals rates holding in a 3.25%-3.75% range by year-end, with only modest cut odds. Hawkish tail risks from surging Treasury yields and geopolitical tensions have lifted hike probabilities to around 12-24% in derivatives markets, but consensus favors steady policy. Watch March CPI on April 10 for shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$647,045结束日期
Dec 9, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven primarily by the FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid stable inflation and softening labor conditions. February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, matching January and near the Fed's 2% target, while nonfarm payrolls declined 92,000 and unemployment edged to 4.4%, reducing tightening pressures. The dot plot signals rates holding in a 3.25%-3.75% range by year-end, with only modest cut odds. Hawkish tail risks from surging Treasury yields and geopolitical tensions have lifted hike probabilities to around 12-24% in derivatives markets, but consensus favors steady policy. Watch March CPI on April 10 for shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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