Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, anchored by the March 18 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% and the dot plot's median projection of 3.4% by year-end, signaling one 25-basis-point cut rather than tightening. Elevated core PCE inflation forecasts at 2.7% for 2026 and unemployment ticking to 4.4% reflect persistent price pressures amid geopolitical oil shocks from the Iran conflict, yet traders see insufficient momentum for hikes given the Fed's mildly restrictive stance. Key swing factors include upcoming April CPI and nonfarm payrolls data ahead of the May FOMC, where hotter inflation could elevate hike odds above 25%.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$647,787 交易量
$647,787 交易量
Dec 9, 2026
是
$647,787 交易量
$647,787 交易量
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, anchored by the March 18 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% and the dot plot's median projection of 3.4% by year-end, signaling one 25-basis-point cut rather than tightening. Elevated core PCE inflation forecasts at 2.7% for 2026 and unemployment ticking to 4.4% reflect persistent price pressures amid geopolitical oil shocks from the Iran conflict, yet traders see insufficient momentum for hikes given the Fed's mildly restrictive stance. Key swing factors include upcoming April CPI and nonfarm payrolls data ahead of the May FOMC, where hotter inflation could elevate hike odds above 25%.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
交易量
$647,787结束日期
Dec 9, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, anchored by the March 18 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% and the dot plot's median projection of 3.4% by year-end, signaling one 25-basis-point cut rather than tightening. Elevated core PCE inflation forecasts at 2.7% for 2026 and unemployment ticking to 4.4% reflect persistent price pressures amid geopolitical oil shocks from the Iran conflict, yet traders see insufficient momentum for hikes given the Fed's mildly restrictive stance. Key swing factors include upcoming April CPI and nonfarm payrolls data ahead of the May FOMC, where hotter inflation could elevate hike odds above 25%.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$647,787结束日期
Dec 9, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, anchored by the March 18 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% and the dot plot's median projection of 3.4% by year-end, signaling one 25-basis-point cut rather than tightening. Elevated core PCE inflation forecasts at 2.7% for 2026 and unemployment ticking to 4.4% reflect persistent price pressures amid geopolitical oil shocks from the Iran conflict, yet traders see insufficient momentum for hikes given the Fed's mildly restrictive stance. Key swing factors include upcoming April CPI and nonfarm payrolls data ahead of the May FOMC, where hotter inflation could elevate hike odds above 25%.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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