The market's 93.5% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the April-through-July FOMC meetings stems primarily from the Federal Reserve's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% amid elevated inflation, with March PCE at 3.5% year-over-year driven by energy price surges and a resilient labor market featuring 4.3% unemployment. Recent minutes and communications underscore policymakers' patient stance, prioritizing confirmation that tariff and geopolitical supply shocks will not embed higher prices before any easing. This aligns with futures markets now pricing limited or no cuts through year-end. A material softening in upcoming employment reports or May CPI data could still shift expectations, though current conditions reinforce the strong trader consensus for steady policy.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Pause–Pause–Pause 94%
Other 4.5%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.4%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.0%
$51,315 交易量
$51,315 交易量
2026-07-29
Pause–Pause–Pause
94%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
4%
Pause–Pause–Pause 94%
Other 4.5%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.4%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.0%
$51,315 交易量
$51,315 交易量
2026-07-29
Pause–Pause–Pause
$3,249 交易量
94%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$1,875 交易量
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$2,556 交易量
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,874 交易量
1%
Other
$1,775 交易量
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe market's 93.5% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the April-through-July FOMC meetings stems primarily from the Federal Reserve's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% amid elevated inflation, with March PCE at 3.5% year-over-year driven by energy price surges and a resilient labor market featuring 4.3% unemployment. Recent minutes and communications underscore policymakers' patient stance, prioritizing confirmation that tariff and geopolitical supply shocks will not embed higher prices before any easing. This aligns with futures markets now pricing limited or no cuts through year-end. A material softening in upcoming employment reports or May CPI data could still shift expectations, though current conditions reinforce the strong trader consensus for steady policy.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
交易量
$51,315结束日期
2026-07-29市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe market's 93.5% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the April-through-July FOMC meetings stems primarily from the Federal Reserve's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% amid elevated inflation, with March PCE at 3.5% year-over-year driven by energy price surges and a resilient labor market featuring 4.3% unemployment. Recent minutes and communications underscore policymakers' patient stance, prioritizing confirmation that tariff and geopolitical supply shocks will not embed higher prices before any easing. This aligns with futures markets now pricing limited or no cuts through year-end. A material softening in upcoming employment reports or May CPI data could still shift expectations, though current conditions reinforce the strong trader consensus for steady policy.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$51,315结束日期
2026-07-29市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market's 93.5% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the April-through-July FOMC meetings stems primarily from the Federal Reserve's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% amid elevated inflation, with March PCE at 3.5% year-over-year driven by energy price surges and a resilient labor market featuring 4.3% unemployment. Recent minutes and communications underscore policymakers' patient stance, prioritizing confirmation that tariff and geopolitical supply shocks will not embed higher prices before any easing. This aligns with futures markets now pricing limited or no cuts through year-end. A material softening in upcoming employment reports or May CPI data could still shift expectations, though current conditions reinforce the strong trader consensus for steady policy.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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