Elevated April 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year, driven by sharp energy price gains, has reinforced trader consensus around a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome for the Federal Reserve’s April-through-July policy path at 93% implied probability. The FOMC’s April 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75% amid divided votes and renewed caution on inflation risks aligns with this pricing, as does the steady 4.3% unemployment rate and modest April payroll gains. Market-implied expectations from futures reflect limited scope for cuts given persistent price pressures and anchored longer-term inflation expectations. A sharper-than-expected decline in subsequent CPI prints or meaningful labor market softening ahead of the June and July meetings could introduce volatility, though current data trajectories support the dominant hold-through-summer view.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Other 4.3%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.9%
$51,315 交易量
$51,315 交易量
2026-07-29
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
4%
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Other 4.3%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.9%
$51,315 交易量
$51,315 交易量
2026-07-29
Pause–Pause–Pause
$3,249 交易量
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$1,875 交易量
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$2,556 交易量
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,874 交易量
1%
Other
$1,775 交易量
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated April 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year, driven by sharp energy price gains, has reinforced trader consensus around a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome for the Federal Reserve’s April-through-July policy path at 93% implied probability. The FOMC’s April 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75% amid divided votes and renewed caution on inflation risks aligns with this pricing, as does the steady 4.3% unemployment rate and modest April payroll gains. Market-implied expectations from futures reflect limited scope for cuts given persistent price pressures and anchored longer-term inflation expectations. A sharper-than-expected decline in subsequent CPI prints or meaningful labor market softening ahead of the June and July meetings could introduce volatility, though current data trajectories support the dominant hold-through-summer view.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
交易量
$51,315结束日期
2026-07-29市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated April 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year, driven by sharp energy price gains, has reinforced trader consensus around a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome for the Federal Reserve’s April-through-July policy path at 93% implied probability. The FOMC’s April 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75% amid divided votes and renewed caution on inflation risks aligns with this pricing, as does the steady 4.3% unemployment rate and modest April payroll gains. Market-implied expectations from futures reflect limited scope for cuts given persistent price pressures and anchored longer-term inflation expectations. A sharper-than-expected decline in subsequent CPI prints or meaningful labor market softening ahead of the June and July meetings could introduce volatility, though current data trajectories support the dominant hold-through-summer view.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$51,315结束日期
2026-07-29市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated April 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year, driven by sharp energy price gains, has reinforced trader consensus around a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome for the Federal Reserve’s April-through-July policy path at 93% implied probability. The FOMC’s April 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75% amid divided votes and renewed caution on inflation risks aligns with this pricing, as does the steady 4.3% unemployment rate and modest April payroll gains. Market-implied expectations from futures reflect limited scope for cuts given persistent price pressures and anchored longer-term inflation expectations. A sharper-than-expected decline in subsequent CPI prints or meaningful labor market softening ahead of the June and July meetings could introduce volatility, though current data trajectories support the dominant hold-through-summer view.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题