Traders on Polymarket price an 89% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% across the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting resilient economic data that has tempered rate-cut expectations. The April 28-29 decision held rates steady amid a divisive 8-4 vote, reinforced by March PCE inflation accelerating to 3.5% year-over-year—its highest since 2023—and April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts despite a slowdown from March. Labor market strength and sticky prices signal policy restrictiveness remains appropriate, aligning with CME FedWatch odds of over 93% for a June hold and 86% for July. Upcoming May 12 CPI data and the June 16-17 meeting loom as key catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Pause–Pause–Pause 89%
Other 4.7%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.9%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.1%
$48,334 交易量
$48,334 交易量
2026-07-29
Pause–Pause–Pause
89%
Pause–Pause–Cut
8%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
5%
Pause–Pause–Pause 89%
Other 4.7%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.9%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.1%
$48,334 交易量
$48,334 交易量
2026-07-29
Pause–Pause–Pause
$2,123 交易量
89%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$1,572 交易量
8%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$1,514 交易量
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,575 交易量
1%
Other
$1,565 交易量
5%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders on Polymarket price an 89% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% across the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting resilient economic data that has tempered rate-cut expectations. The April 28-29 decision held rates steady amid a divisive 8-4 vote, reinforced by March PCE inflation accelerating to 3.5% year-over-year—its highest since 2023—and April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts despite a slowdown from March. Labor market strength and sticky prices signal policy restrictiveness remains appropriate, aligning with CME FedWatch odds of over 93% for a June hold and 86% for July. Upcoming May 12 CPI data and the June 16-17 meeting loom as key catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
交易量
$48,334结束日期
2026-07-29市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders on Polymarket price an 89% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% across the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting resilient economic data that has tempered rate-cut expectations. The April 28-29 decision held rates steady amid a divisive 8-4 vote, reinforced by March PCE inflation accelerating to 3.5% year-over-year—its highest since 2023—and April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts despite a slowdown from March. Labor market strength and sticky prices signal policy restrictiveness remains appropriate, aligning with CME FedWatch odds of over 93% for a June hold and 86% for July. Upcoming May 12 CPI data and the June 16-17 meeting loom as key catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$48,334结束日期
2026-07-29市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders on Polymarket price an 89% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% across the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting resilient economic data that has tempered rate-cut expectations. The April 28-29 decision held rates steady amid a divisive 8-4 vote, reinforced by March PCE inflation accelerating to 3.5% year-over-year—its highest since 2023—and April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts despite a slowdown from March. Labor market strength and sticky prices signal policy restrictiveness remains appropriate, aligning with CME FedWatch odds of over 93% for a June hold and 86% for July. Upcoming May 12 CPI data and the June 16-17 meeting loom as key catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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