Recent FOMC communications and resilient U.S. economic data have anchored trader sentiment behind a 93% implied probability of three consecutive pauses at the April, June, and July 2026 meetings, with the federal funds rate holding in the 3.50%-3.75% range. Elevated inflation readings, steady labor market conditions, and geopolitical uncertainty have reinforced expectations that the Committee will maintain its current monetary policy stance rather than shift toward cuts, as reflected in the tight 4.5% and 3.1% pricing on any easing sequences. This consensus aligns with futures markets showing no rate movements through year-end and an upward revision in the longer-run neutral rate estimate. Scenarios that could challenge the pause path include a sharper-than-expected decline in core inflation or a pronounced slowdown in growth that prompts the FOMC to adjust its dot plot projections at the June meeting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 4.8%
Other 3.3%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.7%
$49,086 交易量
$49,086 交易量
2026-07-29
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
5%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
2%
Other
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 4.8%
Other 3.3%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.7%
$49,086 交易量
$49,086 交易量
2026-07-29
Pause–Pause–Pause
$2,608 交易量
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$1,665 交易量
5%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$1,568 交易量
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,664 交易量
2%
Other
$1,595 交易量
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent FOMC communications and resilient U.S. economic data have anchored trader sentiment behind a 93% implied probability of three consecutive pauses at the April, June, and July 2026 meetings, with the federal funds rate holding in the 3.50%-3.75% range. Elevated inflation readings, steady labor market conditions, and geopolitical uncertainty have reinforced expectations that the Committee will maintain its current monetary policy stance rather than shift toward cuts, as reflected in the tight 4.5% and 3.1% pricing on any easing sequences. This consensus aligns with futures markets showing no rate movements through year-end and an upward revision in the longer-run neutral rate estimate. Scenarios that could challenge the pause path include a sharper-than-expected decline in core inflation or a pronounced slowdown in growth that prompts the FOMC to adjust its dot plot projections at the June meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
交易量
$49,086结束日期
2026-07-29市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent FOMC communications and resilient U.S. economic data have anchored trader sentiment behind a 93% implied probability of three consecutive pauses at the April, June, and July 2026 meetings, with the federal funds rate holding in the 3.50%-3.75% range. Elevated inflation readings, steady labor market conditions, and geopolitical uncertainty have reinforced expectations that the Committee will maintain its current monetary policy stance rather than shift toward cuts, as reflected in the tight 4.5% and 3.1% pricing on any easing sequences. This consensus aligns with futures markets showing no rate movements through year-end and an upward revision in the longer-run neutral rate estimate. Scenarios that could challenge the pause path include a sharper-than-expected decline in core inflation or a pronounced slowdown in growth that prompts the FOMC to adjust its dot plot projections at the June meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$49,086结束日期
2026-07-29市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent FOMC communications and resilient U.S. economic data have anchored trader sentiment behind a 93% implied probability of three consecutive pauses at the April, June, and July 2026 meetings, with the federal funds rate holding in the 3.50%-3.75% range. Elevated inflation readings, steady labor market conditions, and geopolitical uncertainty have reinforced expectations that the Committee will maintain its current monetary policy stance rather than shift toward cuts, as reflected in the tight 4.5% and 3.1% pricing on any easing sequences. This consensus aligns with futures markets showing no rate movements through year-end and an upward revision in the longer-run neutral rate estimate. Scenarios that could challenge the pause path include a sharper-than-expected decline in core inflation or a pronounced slowdown in growth that prompts the FOMC to adjust its dot plot projections at the June meeting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题