Persistent inflation pressures, highlighted by the April 2026 CPI reading of 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—alongside a resilient labor market have anchored market-implied odds for the Federal Reserve to maintain its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range across the March, May, and June FOMC meetings. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East have added further uncertainty, reinforcing the central bank's data-dependent approach and hawkish tilt evident in recent statements and dissents. This consensus, reflected in the 97.5% probability for pause-pause-pause, aligns with futures pricing showing minimal odds of policy shifts through year-end. Key near-term catalysts include the June 5 employment report and June 10 CPI release, which could alter expectations if they deviate materially from forecasts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于连续三次按兵不动 97.4%
暂停–暂停–降息 2.3%
其他 <1%
$1,230,841 交易量
$1,230,841 交易量
2026-06-17
连续三次按兵不动
97%
暂停–暂停–降息
2%
其他
1%
连续三次按兵不动 97.4%
暂停–暂停–降息 2.3%
其他 <1%
$1,230,841 交易量
$1,230,841 交易量
2026-06-17
连续三次按兵不动
$132,940 交易量
97%
暂停–暂停–降息
$80,567 交易量
2%
其他
$271,992 交易量
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation pressures, highlighted by the April 2026 CPI reading of 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—alongside a resilient labor market have anchored market-implied odds for the Federal Reserve to maintain its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range across the March, May, and June FOMC meetings. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East have added further uncertainty, reinforcing the central bank's data-dependent approach and hawkish tilt evident in recent statements and dissents. This consensus, reflected in the 97.5% probability for pause-pause-pause, aligns with futures pricing showing minimal odds of policy shifts through year-end. Key near-term catalysts include the June 5 employment report and June 10 CPI release, which could alter expectations if they deviate materially from forecasts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
交易量
$1,230,841结束日期
2026-06-17市场开放时间
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation pressures, highlighted by the April 2026 CPI reading of 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—alongside a resilient labor market have anchored market-implied odds for the Federal Reserve to maintain its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range across the March, May, and June FOMC meetings. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East have added further uncertainty, reinforcing the central bank's data-dependent approach and hawkish tilt evident in recent statements and dissents. This consensus, reflected in the 97.5% probability for pause-pause-pause, aligns with futures pricing showing minimal odds of policy shifts through year-end. Key near-term catalysts include the June 5 employment report and June 10 CPI release, which could alter expectations if they deviate materially from forecasts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$1,230,841结束日期
2026-06-17市场开放时间
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Persistent inflation pressures, highlighted by the April 2026 CPI reading of 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—alongside a resilient labor market have anchored market-implied odds for the Federal Reserve to maintain its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range across the March, May, and June FOMC meetings. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East have added further uncertainty, reinforcing the central bank's data-dependent approach and hawkish tilt evident in recent statements and dissents. This consensus, reflected in the 97.5% probability for pause-pause-pause, aligns with futures pricing showing minimal odds of policy shifts through year-end. Key near-term catalysts include the June 5 employment report and June 10 CPI release, which could alter expectations if they deviate materially from forecasts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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