Trader consensus on Polymarket has coalesced around a 87.5% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the March, April, and June FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steady federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% following its March 18 hold—the second consecutive pause amid revised-higher 2026 PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7%. Today's March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000, rebounding from February's decline with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, bolstering the resilient labor market narrative. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, but Middle East tensions have spiked oil toward $100, fueling inflation reacceleration fears echoed in Chair Powell's recent "wait-and-see" remarks on energy shocks. The April 28-29 meeting looms as the next key test, with futures pricing near-certainty for no change.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于连续三次按兵不动 88%
暂停–暂停–降息 7%
其他 4.9%
按兵不动–降息–降息 1.3%
$719,074 交易量
$719,074 交易量
2026-06-17
连续三次按兵不动
88%
暂停–暂停–降息
7%
其他
5%
按兵不动–降息–降息
1%
暂停–降息–暂停
1%
连续三次按兵不动 88%
暂停–暂停–降息 7%
其他 4.9%
按兵不动–降息–降息 1.3%
$719,074 交易量
$719,074 交易量
2026-06-17
连续三次按兵不动
$21,014 交易量
88%
暂停–暂停–降息
$11,282 交易量
7%
其他
$211,071 交易量
5%
按兵不动–降息–降息
$345,747 交易量
1%
暂停–降息–暂停
$129,960 交易量
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket has coalesced around a 87.5% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the March, April, and June FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steady federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% following its March 18 hold—the second consecutive pause amid revised-higher 2026 PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7%. Today's March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000, rebounding from February's decline with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, bolstering the resilient labor market narrative. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, but Middle East tensions have spiked oil toward $100, fueling inflation reacceleration fears echoed in Chair Powell's recent "wait-and-see" remarks on energy shocks. The April 28-29 meeting looms as the next key test, with futures pricing near-certainty for no change.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
交易量
$719,074结束日期
2026-06-17市场开放时间
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket has coalesced around a 87.5% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the March, April, and June FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steady federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% following its March 18 hold—the second consecutive pause amid revised-higher 2026 PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7%. Today's March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000, rebounding from February's decline with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, bolstering the resilient labor market narrative. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, but Middle East tensions have spiked oil toward $100, fueling inflation reacceleration fears echoed in Chair Powell's recent "wait-and-see" remarks on energy shocks. The April 28-29 meeting looms as the next key test, with futures pricing near-certainty for no change.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$719,074结束日期
2026-06-17市场开放时间
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket has coalesced around a 87.5% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the March, April, and June FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steady federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% following its March 18 hold—the second consecutive pause amid revised-higher 2026 PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7%. Today's March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000, rebounding from February's decline with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, bolstering the resilient labor market narrative. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, but Middle East tensions have spiked oil toward $100, fueling inflation reacceleration fears echoed in Chair Powell's recent "wait-and-see" remarks on energy shocks. The April 28-29 meeting looms as the next key test, with futures pricing near-certainty for no change.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题