Traders have assigned a 97.7% implied probability to three consecutive pauses in the federal funds rate through the March, May, and June FOMC meetings, driven by resilient economic data that continue to support the Federal Reserve’s patient approach to monetary policy. Steady nonfarm payroll gains and core inflation readings that remain above the 2% target have kept rate-cut expectations anchored near zero, consistent with recent Fed communications stressing the need for further progress on price stability before any easing. This market-implied consensus reflects traders’ assessment of current labor-market strength and inflation trajectory. A sharper-than-expected decline in upcoming CPI or PCE prints, or a sudden weakening in employment indicators, could still open the door to a June cut, though such outcomes would require a material shift from the data observed so far.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于连续三次按兵不动 97.6%
暂停–暂停–降息 1.7%
其他 <1%
$1,118,904 交易量
$1,118,904 交易量
2026-06-17
连续三次按兵不动
98%
暂停–暂停–降息
2%
其他
<1%
连续三次按兵不动 97.6%
暂停–暂停–降息 1.7%
其他 <1%
$1,118,904 交易量
$1,118,904 交易量
2026-06-17
连续三次按兵不动
$69,453 交易量
98%
暂停–暂停–降息
$46,119 交易量
2%
其他
$257,991 交易量
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders have assigned a 97.7% implied probability to three consecutive pauses in the federal funds rate through the March, May, and June FOMC meetings, driven by resilient economic data that continue to support the Federal Reserve’s patient approach to monetary policy. Steady nonfarm payroll gains and core inflation readings that remain above the 2% target have kept rate-cut expectations anchored near zero, consistent with recent Fed communications stressing the need for further progress on price stability before any easing. This market-implied consensus reflects traders’ assessment of current labor-market strength and inflation trajectory. A sharper-than-expected decline in upcoming CPI or PCE prints, or a sudden weakening in employment indicators, could still open the door to a June cut, though such outcomes would require a material shift from the data observed so far.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
交易量
$1,118,904结束日期
2026-06-17市场开放时间
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders have assigned a 97.7% implied probability to three consecutive pauses in the federal funds rate through the March, May, and June FOMC meetings, driven by resilient economic data that continue to support the Federal Reserve’s patient approach to monetary policy. Steady nonfarm payroll gains and core inflation readings that remain above the 2% target have kept rate-cut expectations anchored near zero, consistent with recent Fed communications stressing the need for further progress on price stability before any easing. This market-implied consensus reflects traders’ assessment of current labor-market strength and inflation trajectory. A sharper-than-expected decline in upcoming CPI or PCE prints, or a sudden weakening in employment indicators, could still open the door to a June cut, though such outcomes would require a material shift from the data observed so far.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$1,118,904结束日期
2026-06-17市场开放时间
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders have assigned a 97.7% implied probability to three consecutive pauses in the federal funds rate through the March, May, and June FOMC meetings, driven by resilient economic data that continue to support the Federal Reserve’s patient approach to monetary policy. Steady nonfarm payroll gains and core inflation readings that remain above the 2% target have kept rate-cut expectations anchored near zero, consistent with recent Fed communications stressing the need for further progress on price stability before any easing. This market-implied consensus reflects traders’ assessment of current labor-market strength and inflation trajectory. A sharper-than-expected decline in upcoming CPI or PCE prints, or a sudden weakening in employment indicators, could still open the door to a June cut, though such outcomes would require a material shift from the data observed so far.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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