Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors consecutive FOMC pauses through June 2026 at 85.5% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the March, May, and June meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steady federal funds rate target of 3.5%–3.75% following its March 17–18 hold amid surging oil prices from the Iran conflict and sticky 2.4% February CPI inflation. Today's robust March nonfarm payrolls surge of 178,000—tripling expectations—and unemployment dip to 4.3% bolstered this positioning, signaling labor market resilience that tempers rate-cut urgency despite the March dot plot's median projection for one 25-basis-point reduction later in 2026. Chair Powell's March 30 remarks emphasized a "wait-and-see" stance on energy-driven inflation risks, with traders eyeing March CPI data on April 10 ahead of the April 28–29 meeting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于连续三次按兵不动 86%
暂停–暂停–降息 9%
其他 5.5%
按兵不动–降息–降息 1.3%
$720,578 交易量
$720,578 交易量
2026-06-17
连续三次按兵不动
86%
暂停–暂停–降息
9%
其他
6%
按兵不动–降息–降息
1%
暂停–降息–暂停
<1%
连续三次按兵不动 86%
暂停–暂停–降息 9%
其他 5.5%
按兵不动–降息–降息 1.3%
$720,578 交易量
$720,578 交易量
2026-06-17
连续三次按兵不动
$22,101 交易量
86%
暂停–暂停–降息
$11,282 交易量
9%
其他
$211,071 交易量
6%
按兵不动–降息–降息
$345,747 交易量
1%
暂停–降息–暂停
$130,376 交易量
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors consecutive FOMC pauses through June 2026 at 85.5% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the March, May, and June meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steady federal funds rate target of 3.5%–3.75% following its March 17–18 hold amid surging oil prices from the Iran conflict and sticky 2.4% February CPI inflation. Today's robust March nonfarm payrolls surge of 178,000—tripling expectations—and unemployment dip to 4.3% bolstered this positioning, signaling labor market resilience that tempers rate-cut urgency despite the March dot plot's median projection for one 25-basis-point reduction later in 2026. Chair Powell's March 30 remarks emphasized a "wait-and-see" stance on energy-driven inflation risks, with traders eyeing March CPI data on April 10 ahead of the April 28–29 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
交易量
$720,578结束日期
2026-06-17市场开放时间
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors consecutive FOMC pauses through June 2026 at 85.5% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the March, May, and June meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steady federal funds rate target of 3.5%–3.75% following its March 17–18 hold amid surging oil prices from the Iran conflict and sticky 2.4% February CPI inflation. Today's robust March nonfarm payrolls surge of 178,000—tripling expectations—and unemployment dip to 4.3% bolstered this positioning, signaling labor market resilience that tempers rate-cut urgency despite the March dot plot's median projection for one 25-basis-point reduction later in 2026. Chair Powell's March 30 remarks emphasized a "wait-and-see" stance on energy-driven inflation risks, with traders eyeing March CPI data on April 10 ahead of the April 28–29 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$720,578结束日期
2026-06-17市场开放时间
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors consecutive FOMC pauses through June 2026 at 85.5% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the March, May, and June meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steady federal funds rate target of 3.5%–3.75% following its March 17–18 hold amid surging oil prices from the Iran conflict and sticky 2.4% February CPI inflation. Today's robust March nonfarm payrolls surge of 178,000—tripling expectations—and unemployment dip to 4.3% bolstered this positioning, signaling labor market resilience that tempers rate-cut urgency despite the March dot plot's median projection for one 25-basis-point reduction later in 2026. Chair Powell's March 30 remarks emphasized a "wait-and-see" stance on energy-driven inflation risks, with traders eyeing March CPI data on April 10 ahead of the April 28–29 meeting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题