Elevated inflation pressures, particularly the April 2026 CPI rise to 3.8% year-over-year driven by a 17.9% surge in energy costs amid Middle East tensions, underpin the 97.5% market-implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the March, April, and June FOMC meetings. With the federal funds rate held steady at the 3.5%–3.75% target range in the prior two decisions and the labor market showing only modest softening at a 4.3% unemployment rate, traders see little scope for easing amid resilient demand and sticky core readings. This skin-in-the-game consensus aligns with futures pricing little change through mid-year. A sharper-than-expected decline in May or June inflation data or a pronounced weakening in employment indicators could still introduce volatility and shift odds toward a June cut.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于连续三次按兵不动 97.4%
暂停–暂停–降息 2.3%
其他 <1%
$1,230,841 交易量
$1,230,841 交易量
2026-06-17
连续三次按兵不动
97%
暂停–暂停–降息
2%
其他
1%
连续三次按兵不动 97.4%
暂停–暂停–降息 2.3%
其他 <1%
$1,230,841 交易量
$1,230,841 交易量
2026-06-17
连续三次按兵不动
$132,940 交易量
97%
暂停–暂停–降息
$80,567 交易量
2%
其他
$271,992 交易量
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation pressures, particularly the April 2026 CPI rise to 3.8% year-over-year driven by a 17.9% surge in energy costs amid Middle East tensions, underpin the 97.5% market-implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the March, April, and June FOMC meetings. With the federal funds rate held steady at the 3.5%–3.75% target range in the prior two decisions and the labor market showing only modest softening at a 4.3% unemployment rate, traders see little scope for easing amid resilient demand and sticky core readings. This skin-in-the-game consensus aligns with futures pricing little change through mid-year. A sharper-than-expected decline in May or June inflation data or a pronounced weakening in employment indicators could still introduce volatility and shift odds toward a June cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
交易量
$1,230,841结束日期
2026-06-17市场开放时间
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation pressures, particularly the April 2026 CPI rise to 3.8% year-over-year driven by a 17.9% surge in energy costs amid Middle East tensions, underpin the 97.5% market-implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the March, April, and June FOMC meetings. With the federal funds rate held steady at the 3.5%–3.75% target range in the prior two decisions and the labor market showing only modest softening at a 4.3% unemployment rate, traders see little scope for easing amid resilient demand and sticky core readings. This skin-in-the-game consensus aligns with futures pricing little change through mid-year. A sharper-than-expected decline in May or June inflation data or a pronounced weakening in employment indicators could still introduce volatility and shift odds toward a June cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$1,230,841结束日期
2026-06-17市场开放时间
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated inflation pressures, particularly the April 2026 CPI rise to 3.8% year-over-year driven by a 17.9% surge in energy costs amid Middle East tensions, underpin the 97.5% market-implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the March, April, and June FOMC meetings. With the federal funds rate held steady at the 3.5%–3.75% target range in the prior two decisions and the labor market showing only modest softening at a 4.3% unemployment rate, traders see little scope for easing amid resilient demand and sticky core readings. This skin-in-the-game consensus aligns with futures pricing little change through mid-year. A sharper-than-expected decline in May or June inflation data or a pronounced weakening in employment indicators could still introduce volatility and shift odds toward a June cut.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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