Polymarket traders price a 95.5% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses at the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, anchored by confirmed no-change decisions on March 18 and April 29 amid resurgent inflation pressures. March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4% prior—while labor markets remain resilient with unemployment steady near 4%, diminishing rate-cut urgency despite one projected 2026 easing per the March dot plot. Fed funds hold at 3.50%-3.75%, with Chair Powell emphasizing data dependence in recent press conferences. Consensus could shift if upcoming April CPI (May 12 release) cools sharply or May nonfarm payrolls signal weakness, prompting earlier easing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于连续三次按兵不动 96%
暂停–暂停–降息 3.5%
其他 1.4%
$1,037,839 交易量
$1,037,839 交易量
2026-06-17
连续三次按兵不动
96%
暂停–暂停–降息
4%
其他
1%
连续三次按兵不动 96%
暂停–暂停–降息 3.5%
其他 1.4%
$1,037,839 交易量
$1,037,839 交易量
2026-06-17
连续三次按兵不动
$46,675 交易量
96%
暂停–暂停–降息
$22,853 交易量
4%
其他
$222,969 交易量
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders price a 95.5% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses at the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, anchored by confirmed no-change decisions on March 18 and April 29 amid resurgent inflation pressures. March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4% prior—while labor markets remain resilient with unemployment steady near 4%, diminishing rate-cut urgency despite one projected 2026 easing per the March dot plot. Fed funds hold at 3.50%-3.75%, with Chair Powell emphasizing data dependence in recent press conferences. Consensus could shift if upcoming April CPI (May 12 release) cools sharply or May nonfarm payrolls signal weakness, prompting earlier easing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
交易量
$1,037,839结束日期
2026-06-17市场开放时间
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders price a 95.5% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses at the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, anchored by confirmed no-change decisions on March 18 and April 29 amid resurgent inflation pressures. March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4% prior—while labor markets remain resilient with unemployment steady near 4%, diminishing rate-cut urgency despite one projected 2026 easing per the March dot plot. Fed funds hold at 3.50%-3.75%, with Chair Powell emphasizing data dependence in recent press conferences. Consensus could shift if upcoming April CPI (May 12 release) cools sharply or May nonfarm payrolls signal weakness, prompting earlier easing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$1,037,839结束日期
2026-06-17市场开放时间
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 95.5% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses at the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, anchored by confirmed no-change decisions on March 18 and April 29 amid resurgent inflation pressures. March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4% prior—while labor markets remain resilient with unemployment steady near 4%, diminishing rate-cut urgency despite one projected 2026 easing per the March dot plot. Fed funds hold at 3.50%-3.75%, with Chair Powell emphasizing data dependence in recent press conferences. Consensus could shift if upcoming April CPI (May 12 release) cools sharply or May nonfarm payrolls signal weakness, prompting earlier easing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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