Market icon
财务·Jerome Powell

到3月31日， 10年期国债收益率将达到多高？

Market icon
财务·Jerome Powell

到3月31日， 10年期国债收益率将达到多高？

$231,913 交易量

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$231,913 交易量

Polymarket

4.5%

$57,588 交易量

20%

4.6%

$22,331 交易量

6%

4.8%

$17,436 交易量

1%

5.0%

$20,598 交易量

1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield stands at approximately 4.08% as of October 9, reflecting trader consensus on persistent inflation pressures and a resilient U.S. economy, with September nonfarm payrolls adding 254,000 jobs—far exceeding estimates—and unemployment holding at 4.1%. August CPI rose 2.5% year-over-year, milder than feared but insufficient to spur aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts beyond the 50 basis point September reduction, as fiscal deficits and potential policy shifts post-election loom large. Upcoming catalysts include today's September CPI data, October PPI on Friday, and the October 29–30 FOMC meeting, where revised dot plots could reshape the market-implied rate path toward March 31 resolution.

The 10-year Treasury yield stands at approximately 4.08% as of October 9, reflecting trader consensus on persistent inflation pressures and a resilient U.S. economy, with September nonfarm payrolls adding 254,000 jobs—far exceeding estimates—and unemployment holding at 4.1%. August CPI rose 2.5% year-over-year, milder than feared but insufficient to spur aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts beyond the 50 basis point September reduction, as fiscal deficits and potential policy shifts post-election loom large. Upcoming catalysts include today's September CPI data, October PPI on Friday, and the October 29–30 FOMC meeting, where revised dot plots could reshape the market-implied rate path toward March 31 resolution.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield stands at approximately 4.08% as of October 9, reflecting trader consensus on persistent inflation pressures and a resilient U.S. economy, with September nonfarm payrolls adding 254,000 jobs—far exceeding estimates—and unemployment holding at 4.1%. August CPI rose 2.5% year-over-year, milder than feared but insufficient to spur aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts beyond the 50 basis point September reduction, as fiscal deficits and potential policy shifts post-election loom large. Upcoming catalysts include today's September CPI data, October PPI on Friday, and the October 29–30 FOMC meeting, where revised dot plots could reshape the market-implied rate path toward March 31 resolution.

The 10-year Treasury yield stands at approximately 4.08% as of October 9, reflecting trader consensus on persistent inflation pressures and a resilient U.S. economy, with September nonfarm payrolls adding 254,000 jobs—far exceeding estimates—and unemployment holding at 4.1%. August CPI rose 2.5% year-over-year, milder than feared but insufficient to spur aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts beyond the 50 basis point September reduction, as fiscal deficits and potential policy shifts post-election loom large. Upcoming catalysts include today's September CPI data, October PPI on Friday, and the October 29–30 FOMC meeting, where revised dot plots could reshape the market-implied rate path toward March 31 resolution.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"到3月31日， 10年期国债收益率将达到多高？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 6 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"4.3%"，概率为 100%，其次是"4.4%"，概率为 100%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 100¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 100%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"到3月31日， 10年期国债收益率将达到多高？"已产生 $231.9K 的总交易量（自Dec 9, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"到3月31日， 10年期国债收益率将达到多高？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 6 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"到3月31日， 10年期国债收益率将达到多高？"的当前领先者是"4.3%"，概率为 100%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 100%。紧随其后的结果是"4.4%"，概率为 100%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"到3月31日， 10年期国债收益率将达到多高？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。