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2027年之前, 10年期美国国债收益率会有多高?

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2027年之前, 10年期美国国债收益率会有多高?

Dec 31

Dec 31

$142,616 交易量

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$142,616 交易量

Polymarket

4.4%

$18,628 交易量

100%

4.5%

$8,148 交易量

86%

4.6%

$31,001 交易量

60%

4.8%

$42,330 交易量

39%

5.0%

$24,633 交易量

24%

5.2%

$7,150 交易量

17%

5.5%

$980 交易量

15%

5.7%

$2,297 交易量

12%

6.0%

$1,411 交易量

11%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed above 4.40% in recent sessions, driven primarily by post-election repricing of aggressive fiscal stimulus, tariffs, and deregulation under President-elect Trump, which traders expect to fuel higher growth and inflation. This surge—from sub-4% pre-election levels—reflects a hawkish shift in rate expectations, with markets now implying a Federal Reserve terminal funds rate around 4% after fewer cuts than previously anticipated. Resilient economic data, including October nonfarm payrolls adding 12,000 jobs and CPI inflation holding at 2.6% year-over-year, bolsters this view amid sticky services prices. Key catalysts ahead include the December 18 FOMC meeting, December 11 CPI report, and quarterly refunding announcements, which could propel yields toward 5% if policy details confirm inflationary pressures before 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
交易量
$142,616
结束日期
Dec 31, 2026
市场开放时间
Dec 9, 2025, 2:17 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed above 4.40% in recent sessions, driven primarily by post-election repricing of aggressive fiscal stimulus, tariffs, and deregulation under President-elect Trump, which traders expect to fuel higher growth and inflation. This surge—from sub-4% pre-election levels—reflects a hawkish shift in rate expectations, with markets now implying a Federal Reserve terminal funds rate around 4% after fewer cuts than previously anticipated. Resilient economic data, including October nonfarm payrolls adding 12,000 jobs and CPI inflation holding at 2.6% year-over-year, bolsters this view amid sticky services prices. Key catalysts ahead include the December 18 FOMC meeting, December 11 CPI report, and quarterly refunding announcements, which could propel yields toward 5% if policy details confirm inflationary pressures before 2027.

The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed above 4.40% in recent sessions, driven primarily by post-election repricing of aggressive fiscal stimulus, tariffs, and deregulation under President-elect Trump, which traders expect to fuel higher growth and inflation. This surge—from sub-4% pre-election levels—reflects a hawkish shift in rate expectations, with markets now implying a Federal Reserve terminal funds rate around 4% after fewer cuts than previously anticipated. Resilient economic data, including October nonfarm payrolls adding 12,000 jobs and CPI inflation holding at 2.6% year-over-year, bolsters this view amid sticky services prices. Key catalysts ahead include the December 18 FOMC meeting, December 11 CPI report, and quarterly refunding announcements, which could propel yields toward 5% if policy details confirm inflationary pressures before 2027.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

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常见问题

"2027年之前, 10年期美国国债收益率会有多高?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 10 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"4.4%",概率为 100%,其次是"4.3%",概率为 100%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 100¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 100%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前,"2027年之前, 10年期美国国债收益率会有多高?"已产生 $142.6K 的总交易量(自Nov 12, 2025市场上线以来)。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与,并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"2027年之前, 10年期美国国债收益率会有多高?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 10 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"2027年之前, 10年期美国国债收益率会有多高?"的当前领先者是"4.4%",概率为 100%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 100%。紧随其后的结果是"4.3%",概率为 100%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"2027年之前, 10年期美国国债收益率会有多高?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。