The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed above 4.40% in recent sessions, driven primarily by post-election repricing of aggressive fiscal stimulus, tariffs, and deregulation under President-elect Trump, which traders expect to fuel higher growth and inflation. This surge—from sub-4% pre-election levels—reflects a hawkish shift in rate expectations, with markets now implying a Federal Reserve terminal funds rate around 4% after fewer cuts than previously anticipated. Resilient economic data, including October nonfarm payrolls adding 12,000 jobs and CPI inflation holding at 2.6% year-over-year, bolsters this view amid sticky services prices. Key catalysts ahead include the December 18 FOMC meeting, December 11 CPI report, and quarterly refunding announcements, which could propel yields toward 5% if policy details confirm inflationary pressures before 2027.