Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the central bank's steady 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range affirmed in the March 18 decision and Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks emphasizing a "wait and see" stance amid temporary energy shocks from global war risks. February 2026 CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, with core measures sticky, while labor markets show resilience despite February's payroll dip—March nonfarm payrolls data due April 4 could influence sentiment if missing the 60,000 median forecast. Dot plot projections for one 2026 cut remain distant, supporting the hold; upside risks to inflation or sharper job weakness could challenge this positioning ahead of April CPI and May FOMC.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于不变 91%
下调25个基点 6%
加息25个基点 3.3%
降息50个基点或以上 <1%
$5,336,004 交易量
$5,336,004 交易量
2026-06-17
降息50个基点或以上
1%
下调25个基点
6%
不变
91%
加息25个基点
3%
加息50个基点以上
1%
不变 91%
下调25个基点 6%
加息25个基点 3.3%
降息50个基点或以上 <1%
$5,336,004 交易量
$5,336,004 交易量
2026-06-17
降息50个基点或以上
$1,572,275 交易量
1%
下调25个基点
$727,491 交易量
6%
不变
$1,099,726 交易量
91%
加息25个基点
$1,057,153 交易量
3%
加息50个基点以上
$879,364 交易量
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the central bank's steady 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range affirmed in the March 18 decision and Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks emphasizing a "wait and see" stance amid temporary energy shocks from global war risks. February 2026 CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, with core measures sticky, while labor markets show resilience despite February's payroll dip—March nonfarm payrolls data due April 4 could influence sentiment if missing the 60,000 median forecast. Dot plot projections for one 2026 cut remain distant, supporting the hold; upside risks to inflation or sharper job weakness could challenge this positioning ahead of April CPI and May FOMC.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
交易量
$5,336,004结束日期
2026-06-17市场开放时间
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the central bank's steady 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range affirmed in the March 18 decision and Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks emphasizing a "wait and see" stance amid temporary energy shocks from global war risks. February 2026 CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, with core measures sticky, while labor markets show resilience despite February's payroll dip—March nonfarm payrolls data due April 4 could influence sentiment if missing the 60,000 median forecast. Dot plot projections for one 2026 cut remain distant, supporting the hold; upside risks to inflation or sharper job weakness could challenge this positioning ahead of April CPI and May FOMC.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$5,336,004结束日期
2026-06-17市场开放时间
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the central bank's steady 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range affirmed in the March 18 decision and Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks emphasizing a "wait and see" stance amid temporary energy shocks from global war risks. February 2026 CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, with core measures sticky, while labor markets show resilience despite February's payroll dip—March nonfarm payrolls data due April 4 could influence sentiment if missing the 60,000 median forecast. Dot plot projections for one 2026 cut remain distant, supporting the hold; upside risks to inflation or sharper job weakness could challenge this positioning ahead of April CPI and May FOMC.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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