Elevated May 2026 CPI data showing 4.2% year-over-year inflation—the highest since 2023—driven by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, has anchored trader expectations for unchanged policy. With the federal funds rate already at 3.5-3.75% following the April hold, market-implied odds heavily favor a Pause-Pause-Pause sequence across the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. This reflects the Fed’s data-dependent stance prioritizing inflation control over easing, consistent with recent communications and futures pricing that assign minimal probability to near-term cuts. Upcoming June CPI and labor reports, plus the September Summary of Economic Projections, remain key swing factors that could alter the path if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Pause–Pause–Pause 69%
Pause–Pause–Cut 24.8%
Other 10%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.6%
最新
最新
2026-09-16
Cut–Pause–Pause
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
69%
Pause–Pause–Cut
16%
Pause–Cut–Pause
3%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
10%
Pause–Pause–Pause 69%
Pause–Pause–Cut 24.8%
Other 10%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.6%
最新
最新
2026-09-16
Cut–Pause–Pause
$419 交易量
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$540 交易量
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$307 交易量
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$270 交易量
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$1,103 交易量
69%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$331 交易量
16%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$230 交易量
3%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$276 交易量
1%
Other
$318 交易量
10%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated May 2026 CPI data showing 4.2% year-over-year inflation—the highest since 2023—driven by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, has anchored trader expectations for unchanged policy. With the federal funds rate already at 3.5-3.75% following the April hold, market-implied odds heavily favor a Pause-Pause-Pause sequence across the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. This reflects the Fed’s data-dependent stance prioritizing inflation control over easing, consistent with recent communications and futures pricing that assign minimal probability to near-term cuts. Upcoming June CPI and labor reports, plus the September Summary of Economic Projections, remain key swing factors that could alter the path if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
交易量
$3,795结束日期
2026-09-16市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated May 2026 CPI data showing 4.2% year-over-year inflation—the highest since 2023—driven by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, has anchored trader expectations for unchanged policy. With the federal funds rate already at 3.5-3.75% following the April hold, market-implied odds heavily favor a Pause-Pause-Pause sequence across the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. This reflects the Fed’s data-dependent stance prioritizing inflation control over easing, consistent with recent communications and futures pricing that assign minimal probability to near-term cuts. Upcoming June CPI and labor reports, plus the September Summary of Economic Projections, remain key swing factors that could alter the path if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$3,795结束日期
2026-09-16市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated May 2026 CPI data showing 4.2% year-over-year inflation—the highest since 2023—driven by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, has anchored trader expectations for unchanged policy. With the federal funds rate already at 3.5-3.75% following the April hold, market-implied odds heavily favor a Pause-Pause-Pause sequence across the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. This reflects the Fed’s data-dependent stance prioritizing inflation control over easing, consistent with recent communications and futures pricing that assign minimal probability to near-term cuts. Upcoming June CPI and labor reports, plus the September Summary of Economic Projections, remain key swing factors that could alter the path if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题