Elevated inflation readings, including May 2026 CPI at 4.2% year-over-year amid energy price pressures, combined with a resilient labor market have driven the 69.5% market-implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. Traders see the current 3.50%-3.75% target range as likely to hold steady, with the June 16-17 decision—featuring updated economic projections—expected to reinforce data dependence rather than signal near-term easing. Secondary paths like Pause–Pause–Cut (16.0%) reflect only modest scope for later adjustment if inflation moderates, while very low probabilities for any cuts in the near term underscore the shift away from earlier 2026 easing forecasts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Pause–Pause–Pause 70%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11.5%
Other 10%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.5%
最新
最新
2026-09-16
Cut–Pause–Pause
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
70%
Pause–Pause–Cut
12%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
10%
Pause–Pause–Pause 70%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11.5%
Other 10%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.5%
最新
最新
2026-09-16
Cut–Pause–Pause
$419 交易量
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$540 交易量
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$340 交易量
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$270 交易量
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$1,103 交易量
70%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$331 交易量
12%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$230 交易量
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$276 交易量
1%
Other
$318 交易量
10%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings, including May 2026 CPI at 4.2% year-over-year amid energy price pressures, combined with a resilient labor market have driven the 69.5% market-implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. Traders see the current 3.50%-3.75% target range as likely to hold steady, with the June 16-17 decision—featuring updated economic projections—expected to reinforce data dependence rather than signal near-term easing. Secondary paths like Pause–Pause–Cut (16.0%) reflect only modest scope for later adjustment if inflation moderates, while very low probabilities for any cuts in the near term underscore the shift away from earlier 2026 easing forecasts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
交易量
$3,828结束日期
2026-09-16市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings, including May 2026 CPI at 4.2% year-over-year amid energy price pressures, combined with a resilient labor market have driven the 69.5% market-implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. Traders see the current 3.50%-3.75% target range as likely to hold steady, with the June 16-17 decision—featuring updated economic projections—expected to reinforce data dependence rather than signal near-term easing. Secondary paths like Pause–Pause–Cut (16.0%) reflect only modest scope for later adjustment if inflation moderates, while very low probabilities for any cuts in the near term underscore the shift away from earlier 2026 easing forecasts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$3,828结束日期
2026-09-16市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings, including May 2026 CPI at 4.2% year-over-year amid energy price pressures, combined with a resilient labor market have driven the 69.5% market-implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. Traders see the current 3.50%-3.75% target range as likely to hold steady, with the June 16-17 decision—featuring updated economic projections—expected to reinforce data dependence rather than signal near-term easing. Secondary paths like Pause–Pause–Cut (16.0%) reflect only modest scope for later adjustment if inflation moderates, while very low probabilities for any cuts in the near term underscore the shift away from earlier 2026 easing forecasts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题