Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for a near-term Fed rate hike, anchored by the Federal Open Market Committee's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% for a third straight meeting, despite March 2026 CPI inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year from 2.4% in February. Geopolitical tensions, including Middle East conflicts driving oil prices higher, have fueled speculative hike chatter among some brokerages, contrasting with CME FedWatch Tool data showing over 95% odds of no change at the June 16-17 FOMC gathering. Key catalysts ahead include the April CPI release on May 12 and labor market reports, which could alter rate path expectations if inflation persists above the 2% target.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$144,574 交易量
2026-12-09
六月会议
1%
7月会议
6%
9月会议
17%
十月会议
16%
$144,574 交易量
六月会议
$12,069 交易量
1%
7月会议
$755 交易量
6%
9月会议
$49 交易量
17%
十月会议
$392 交易量
16%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for a near-term Fed rate hike, anchored by the Federal Open Market Committee's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% for a third straight meeting, despite March 2026 CPI inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year from 2.4% in February. Geopolitical tensions, including Middle East conflicts driving oil prices higher, have fueled speculative hike chatter among some brokerages, contrasting with CME FedWatch Tool data showing over 95% odds of no change at the June 16-17 FOMC gathering. Key catalysts ahead include the April CPI release on May 12 and labor market reports, which could alter rate path expectations if inflation persists above the 2% target.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$144,574结束日期
2026-10-29市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for a near-term Fed rate hike, anchored by the Federal Open Market Committee's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% for a third straight meeting, despite March 2026 CPI inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year from 2.4% in February. Geopolitical tensions, including Middle East conflicts driving oil prices higher, have fueled speculative hike chatter among some brokerages, contrasting with CME FedWatch Tool data showing over 95% odds of no change at the June 16-17 FOMC gathering. Key catalysts ahead include the April CPI release on May 12 and labor market reports, which could alter rate path expectations if inflation persists above the 2% target.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$144,574结束日期
2026-10-29市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for a near-term Fed rate hike, anchored by the Federal Open Market Committee's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% for a third straight meeting, despite March 2026 CPI inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year from 2.4% in February. Geopolitical tensions, including Middle East conflicts driving oil prices higher, have fueled speculative hike chatter among some brokerages, contrasting with CME FedWatch Tool data showing over 95% odds of no change at the June 16-17 FOMC gathering. Key catalysts ahead include the April CPI release on May 12 and labor market reports, which could alter rate path expectations if inflation persists above the 2% target.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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