The Department of Justice closed its criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in late April 2026 after determining there was insufficient evidence to support charges related to headquarters renovation costs and congressional testimony. A federal judge had earlier quashed related subpoenas, citing essentially zero basis for suspicion of wrongdoing. With the probe transferred to the Federal Reserve inspector general and no active indictment proceedings underway as of mid-May, traders see negligible likelihood of federal charges materializing before the June 30 resolution date. The central bank’s institutional independence and procedural safeguards further reinforce this consensus. Only an unforeseen development, such as newly surfaced evidence or a sudden shift in prosecutorial priorities, could realistically alter the current trajectory.