Ongoing political instability in France, marked by the December 4 no-confidence vote toppling Michel Barnier's government and François Bayrou's subsequent appointment as prime minister on December 13, has kept the 2027 presidential race wide open with no dominant frontrunner. Jordan Bardella leads trader consensus at 24.5% implied probability, buoyed by National Rally's strong showing in July's snap legislative elections and his emergence as the party's standard-bearer amid Marine Le Pen's October conviction for misusing EU funds—currently under appeal, capping her at 8.5%. Édouard Philippe trails closely at 20.5%, gaining from his record as popular former prime minister and Horizons party's centrist positioning in a hung parliament. The tight race reflects fragmented polling, coalition negotiation failures, and uncertainty over Macron's potential endorsement or new left-wing consolidation; developments like Bayrou government stability, Le Pen's appeal outcome, or fresh surveys could widen leads.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于分组项标题:乔丹·巴德拉拉 25%
爱德华·菲利普 21%
让-吕克·梅朗雄 10%
分组项标题:玛丽娜·勒庞 9%
$19,467,160 交易量
$19,467,160 交易量

分组项标题:乔丹·巴德拉拉
25%

爱德华·菲利普
21%

让-吕克·梅朗雄
10%

分组项标题:玛丽娜·勒庞
9%

多米尼克·德维尔潘
5%

Raphaël Glucksmann
4%

Bruno Retailleau
4%

弗朗索瓦·奥朗德
4%

大卫·利斯纳德
3%

莎拉·克纳福
3%

加布里埃尔·阿塔尔
2%

分组条目标题:让-卡斯泰
2%

塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔努
2%

热拉尔·达马南
1%

埃里克·泽穆尔
1%

胡安·布兰科
1%

分组项标题:Marine Tondelier
1%

Bernard Cazeneuve
1%

分组项标题:弗朗索瓦·鲁芬
1%

洛朗·沃奎耶
<1%

泽维尔·贝特朗
<1%

分组项标题:曼努埃尔·邦巴尔
<1%

奥利维耶·福尔
<1%

克莱芒斯·盖特
<1%

Clémentine Autain
<1%

米歇尔·巴尼耶
<1%

弗朗索瓦·贝鲁
<1%

Fabien Roussel
<1%

分组项标题:弗朗索瓦·阿塞勒诺
<1%

尼古拉斯·杜邦-奈昂
<1%

瓦莱丽·佩雷斯
<1%

伊丽莎白·博恩
<1%

Carole Delga
<1%

Ségolène Royal
<1%

Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%

分组项标题:马蒂尔德·帕诺特
<1%
分组项标题:乔丹·巴德拉拉 25%
爱德华·菲利普 21%
让-吕克·梅朗雄 10%
分组项标题:玛丽娜·勒庞 9%
$19,467,160 交易量
$19,467,160 交易量

分组项标题:乔丹·巴德拉拉
25%

爱德华·菲利普
21%

让-吕克·梅朗雄
10%

分组项标题:玛丽娜·勒庞
9%

多米尼克·德维尔潘
5%

Raphaël Glucksmann
4%

Bruno Retailleau
4%

弗朗索瓦·奥朗德
4%

大卫·利斯纳德
3%

莎拉·克纳福
3%

加布里埃尔·阿塔尔
2%

分组条目标题:让-卡斯泰
2%

塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔努
2%

热拉尔·达马南
1%

埃里克·泽穆尔
1%

胡安·布兰科
1%

分组项标题:Marine Tondelier
1%

Bernard Cazeneuve
1%

分组项标题:弗朗索瓦·鲁芬
1%

洛朗·沃奎耶
<1%

泽维尔·贝特朗
<1%

分组项标题:曼努埃尔·邦巴尔
<1%

奥利维耶·福尔
<1%

克莱芒斯·盖特
<1%

Clémentine Autain
<1%

米歇尔·巴尼耶
<1%

弗朗索瓦·贝鲁
<1%

Fabien Roussel
<1%

分组项标题:弗朗索瓦·阿塞勒诺
<1%

尼古拉斯·杜邦-奈昂
<1%

瓦莱丽·佩雷斯
<1%

伊丽莎白·博恩
<1%

Carole Delga
<1%

Ségolène Royal
<1%

Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%

分组项标题:马蒂尔德·帕诺特
<1%
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
市场开放时间: Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ongoing political instability in France, marked by the December 4 no-confidence vote toppling Michel Barnier's government and François Bayrou's subsequent appointment as prime minister on December 13, has kept the 2027 presidential race wide open with no dominant frontrunner. Jordan Bardella leads trader consensus at 24.5% implied probability, buoyed by National Rally's strong showing in July's snap legislative elections and his emergence as the party's standard-bearer amid Marine Le Pen's October conviction for misusing EU funds—currently under appeal, capping her at 8.5%. Édouard Philippe trails closely at 20.5%, gaining from his record as popular former prime minister and Horizons party's centrist positioning in a hung parliament. The tight race reflects fragmented polling, coalition negotiation failures, and uncertainty over Macron's potential endorsement or new left-wing consolidation; developments like Bayrou government stability, Le Pen's appeal outcome, or fresh surveys could widen leads.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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