Ongoing political deadlock in France, marked by Michel Barnier's minority government losing a no-confidence vote on October 4—the first since 1962—has amplified trader consensus favoring Jordan Bardella at 24.5% implied probability over Édouard Philippe's 20.5% for the 2027 presidential race, as the July snap legislative elections left a hung parliament with no majority for left-wing New Popular Front, centrist Ensemble, or far-right National Rally. Bardella benefits from RN's enduring momentum post-EU election gains and recent polling leads around 30-36% in first-round hypotheticals, while Philippe gains traction as a moderate right alternative amid Macron's ineligibility and low approval. The race stays tight due to fragmented opposition, multipolar field, and uncertainty over coalition negotiations or new prime ministerial appointment; separation could arise from budget impasse resolution, fresh scandals, or decisive endorsements ahead of the two-round presidential contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于分组项标题：乔丹·巴德拉拉 25%
爱德华·菲利普 21%
让-吕克·梅朗雄 10%
分组项标题：玛丽娜·勒庞 8%
$20,395,665 交易量
$20,395,665 交易量
分组项标题：乔丹·巴德拉拉
25%
爱德华·菲利普
21%
让-吕克·梅朗雄
10%
分组项标题：玛丽娜·勒庞
8%
多米尼克·德维尔潘
5%
Bruno Retailleau
4%
Raphaël Glucksmann
4%
弗朗索瓦·奥朗德
4%
大卫·利斯纳德
4%
莎拉·克纳福
4%
加布里埃尔·阿塔尔
2%
分组条目标题：让-卡斯泰
2%
塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔努
2%
热拉尔·达马南
1%
埃里克·泽穆尔
1%
胡安·布兰科
1%
Bernard Cazeneuve
1%
分组项标题：弗朗索瓦·鲁芬
1%
分组项标题：Marine Tondelier
1%
洛朗·沃奎耶
<1%
分组项标题：弗朗索瓦·阿塞勒诺
<1%
泽维尔·贝特朗
<1%
Fabien Roussel
<1%
尼古拉斯·杜邦-奈昂
<1%
瓦莱丽·佩雷斯
<1%
伊丽莎白·博恩
<1%
分组项标题：曼努埃尔·邦巴尔
<1%
奥利维耶·福尔
<1%
Ségolène Royal
<1%
Clémentine Autain
<1%
米歇尔·巴尼耶
<1%
弗朗索瓦·贝鲁
<1%
Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%
克莱芒斯·盖特
<1%
Carole Delga
<1%
分组项标题：马蒂尔德·帕诺特
<1%
分组项标题：乔丹·巴德拉拉 25%
爱德华·菲利普 21%
让-吕克·梅朗雄 10%
分组项标题：玛丽娜·勒庞 8%
$20,395,665 交易量
$20,395,665 交易量
分组项标题：乔丹·巴德拉拉
25%
爱德华·菲利普
21%
让-吕克·梅朗雄
10%
分组项标题：玛丽娜·勒庞
8%
多米尼克·德维尔潘
5%
Bruno Retailleau
4%
Raphaël Glucksmann
4%
弗朗索瓦·奥朗德
4%
大卫·利斯纳德
4%
莎拉·克纳福
4%
加布里埃尔·阿塔尔
2%
分组条目标题：让-卡斯泰
2%
塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔努
2%
热拉尔·达马南
1%
埃里克·泽穆尔
1%
胡安·布兰科
1%
Bernard Cazeneuve
1%
分组项标题：弗朗索瓦·鲁芬
1%
分组项标题：Marine Tondelier
1%
洛朗·沃奎耶
<1%
分组项标题：弗朗索瓦·阿塞勒诺
<1%
泽维尔·贝特朗
<1%
Fabien Roussel
<1%
尼古拉斯·杜邦-奈昂
<1%
瓦莱丽·佩雷斯
<1%
伊丽莎白·博恩
<1%
分组项标题：曼努埃尔·邦巴尔
<1%
奥利维耶·福尔
<1%
Ségolène Royal
<1%
Clémentine Autain
<1%
米歇尔·巴尼耶
<1%
弗朗索瓦·贝鲁
<1%
Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%
克莱芒斯·盖特
<1%
Carole Delga
<1%
分组项标题：马蒂尔德·帕诺特
<1%
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
市场开放时间： Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ongoing political deadlock in France, marked by Michel Barnier's minority government losing a no-confidence vote on October 4—the first since 1962—has amplified trader consensus favoring Jordan Bardella at 24.5% implied probability over Édouard Philippe's 20.5% for the 2027 presidential race, as the July snap legislative elections left a hung parliament with no majority for left-wing New Popular Front, centrist Ensemble, or far-right National Rally. Bardella benefits from RN's enduring momentum post-EU election gains and recent polling leads around 30-36% in first-round hypotheticals, while Philippe gains traction as a moderate right alternative amid Macron's ineligibility and low approval. The race stays tight due to fragmented opposition, multipolar field, and uncertainty over coalition negotiations or new prime ministerial appointment; separation could arise from budget impasse resolution, fresh scandals, or decisive endorsements ahead of the two-round presidential contest.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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