什么是 Polymarket？

2026年中期选举赔率 — 实时预测市场赔率
市场	热门候选人和提名人	实时市场赔率
California Governor Election Winner	Xavier Becerra	96%
	Steve Hilton	4%
Maine Senate Election Winner	Troy Jackson (D)	60%
	Susan Collins (R)	41%
Texas Senate Election Winner	James Talarico (D)	62%
	Ken Paxton (R)	40%
Alaska Governor Election Winner	Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	78%
	Bernadette Wilson	20%
	David Bronson	2%
	Tom Begich	1%
Michigan Senate Election Winner	Abdul El-Sayed (D)	73%
	Mike Rogers (R)	28%
Alaska Senate Election Winner	Mary Peltola	73%
	Sen. Dan Sullivan	28%
Ohio Senate Election Winner	Sherrod Brown (D)	62%
	Jon Husted (R)	37%
Iowa Senate Election Winner	Ashley Hinson (R)	59%
	Josh Turek (D)	42%
Nebraska Senate Election Winner	Pete Ricketts (R)	70%
	Independent	31%
South Carolina Senate Election Winner	Darline Graham Nordone (R)	87%
	Annie Andrews (D)	14%
Kansas Senate Election Winner	Roger Marshall (R)	71%
	Adam Hamilton (D)	30%
Texas Governor Election Winner	Greg Abbott (R)	81%
	Gina Hinojosa (D)	20%
New Hampshire Senate Election Winner	Chris Pappas (D)	87%
	John E. Sununu (R)	13%
Ohio Governor Election Winner	Amy Acton (D)	60%
	Vivek Ramaswamy (R)	41%
Florida Governor Election Winner	Byron Donalds (R)	79%
	David Jolly (D)	22%
Nevada Governor Election Winner	Joe Lombardo (R)	53%
	Aaron Ford (D)	48%
Florida Senate Election Winner	Ashley Moody (R)	92%
	Angie Nixon (D)	9%
Georgia Governor Election Winner	Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)	53%
	Rick Jackson (R)	48%
Iowa Governor Election Winner	Rob Sand (D)	83%
	Zach Lahn (R)	16%
Vermont Governor Election Winner	Phil Scott (R)	85%
	Amanda Janoo (D)	15%
Idaho Senate Election Winner	Jim Risch (R)	95%
	Todd Achilles (I)	5%
Arizona Governor Election Winner	Katie Hobbs (D)	89%
	Andy Biggs (R)	11%
Louisiana Senate Election Winner	Julia Letlow (R)	93%
	Jamie Davis (D)	7%
South Dakota Senate Election Winner	Mike Rounds (R)	94%
	Brian Bengs (I)	5%
New Hampshire Governor Election Winner	Kelly Ayotte (R)	96%
	Cinde Warmington (D)	3%
Idaho Governor Election Margin of Victory	Republican 25-30%	38%
	Republican 20-25%	25%
	Republican 15-20%	17%
	Republican 30-35%	11%
	Republican 35-40%	8%
	Republican 10-15%	8%
	Republican 50%+	6%
	Republican 45-50%	4%
	Republican 40-45%	4%
	Republican 0-10%	2%
Nebraska Governor Election Winner	Jim Pillen (R)	93%
	Lynne Walz (D)	9%
Colorado Governor Election Margin of Victory	Democrat 20-25%	31%
	Democrat 25-30%	29%
	Democrat 15-20%	16%
	Democrat 30-35%	16%
	Democrat 35-40%	5%
	Democrat 10-15%	4%
	Democrat 40%+	4%
	Republican Wins	1%
	Democrat 5-10%	1%
Florida Governor Election Margin of Victory	Donalds 6-9%	22%
	Donalds 3-6%	21%
	Donalds 0-3%	20%
	Jolly 6%+	19%
	Jolly 0-3%	13%
	Donalds 9-12%	6%
	Donalds 18%+	5%
	Jolly 3-6%	4%
	Donalds 12-15%	3%
	Donalds 15-18%	1%
Vermont Governor Election Margin of Victory	Republican 0-5%	29%
	Republican 5-10%	26%
	Republican 10-15%	19%
	Democrat Wins	15%
	Republican 15-20%	8%
	Republican 25-30%	2%
	Republican 20-25%	2%
	Republican 30%+	1%
Arkansas Senate Election: Turnout	1.05M+	38%
	900K-975K	28%
	825K-900K	25%
	975K-1.05M	7%
	750K-825K	4%
Florida Senate Election Margin of Victory	Moody 6-9%	22%
	Moody 0-3%	21%
	Moody 3-6%	20%
	Moody 9-12%	14%
	Nixon 0-3%	9%
	Moody 12-15%	8%
	Moody 15-18%	5%
	Nixon 3%+	5%
	Moody 21%+	3%
	Moody 18-21%	1%
California Governor Election Margin of Victory	Becerra 25-30%	42%
	Becerra 20-25%	36%
	Becerra 30-35%	13%
	Becerra 15-20%	11%
	Becerra 35-40%	4%
	Becerra 0-10%	2%
	Becerra 10-15%	1%
	Hilton Wins	1%
Ohio Governor Election Margin of Victory	Acton 3-6%	35%
	Acton 0-3%	22%
	Acton 6-9%	16%
	Ramaswamy 0-3%	14%
	Ramaswamy 3-6%	9%
	Acton 9-12%	6%
	Ramaswamy 6-9%	5%
	Acton 12%+	5%
	Ramaswamy 9-12%	3%
Idaho Senate Election: Turnout	600K-640K	36%
	640K-680K	24%
	680K-720K	16%
	520K-560K	13%
	720K+	13%
	560K-600K	5%
	480K-520K	4%
	<480K	3%
Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory	Paxton 0-3%	27%
	Talarico 0-3%	22%
	Talarico 3-6%	21%
	Talarico 9-12%	13%
	Talarico 6-9%	10%
	Paxton 3-6%	8%
	Paxton 9-12%	6%
	Talarico 12%+	5%
	Paxton 6-9%	4%
	Paxton 12%+	1%
Wyoming Senate Election Margin of Victory	Republican 40-45%	20%
	Republican 35-40%	20%
	Republican 30-35%	20%
	Republican 25-30%	18%
	Republican 45-50%	14%
	Republican 50%+	9%
	Republican 20-25%	9%
	Republican 15-20%	2%
	Republican 10-15%	2%
Massachusetts Governor Election Margin of Victory	Democrat 30-35%	27%
	Democrat 25-30%	24%
	Democrat 20-25%	17%
	Democrat 5-10%	6%
	Democrat 15-20%	6%
	Democrat 35-40%	4%
	Democrat 40%+	4%
	Democrat 0-5%	2%
	Democrat 10-15%	2%
	Republican Wins	1%
New Mexico Governor Election Margin of Victory	Democrat 10-15%	35%
	Democrat 15-20%	26%
	Democrat 5-10%	20%
	Democrat 25%+	11%
	Democrat 20-25%	9%
	Democrat 0-5%	8%
	Republican 0-5%	1%
Wyoming Governor Election Margin of Victory	Republican 30-35%	26%
	Republican 40-45%	18%
	Republican 35-40%	18%
	Republican 25-30%	15%
	Republican 20-25%	13%
	Republican 50%+	7%
	Republican 15-20%	7%
	Republican 45-50%	5%
	Republican 10-15%	4%
	Republican 0-10%	1%
	Democrat Wins	1%
Iowa Governor Election Margin of Victory	Sand 6-9%	27%
	Sand 3-6%	21%
	Sand 0-3%	20%
	Sand 12%+	19%
	Lahn 0-3%	7%
	Sand 9-12%	5%
	Lahn 3-6%	4%
	Lahn 12%+	1%
	Lahn 9-12%	1%
	Lahn 6-9%	1%
South Dakota Governor Election Margin of Victory	Republican 20-25%	37%
	Republican 25-30%	31%
	Republican 15-20%	18%
	Republican 30-35%	10%
	Republican 10-15%	7%
	Republican 45%+	5%
	Republican 35-40%	3%
	Democrat Wins	3%
	Republican 40-45%	2%
	Republican 0-10%	1%
Nebraska Senate Election Margin of Victory	Republican 0-3%	20%
	Republican 3-6%	19%
	Independent 0-3%	18%
	Republican 6-9%	14%
	Independent 3%+	12%
	Republican 9-12%	10%
	Republican 12-15%	5%
	Republican 21%+	1%
	Republican 18-21%	1%
	Republican 15-18%	1%
Delaware Senate Election Margin of Victory	Democrat 30-35%	30%
	Democrat 25-30%	24%
	Democrat 35-40%	18%
	Democrat 20-25%	17%
	Democrat 15-20%	8%
	Democrat 40-45%	4%
	Democrat 45%+	4%
	Republican Wins	3%
	Democrat 0-10%	2%
	Democrat 10-15%	2%
Texas Senate Election: Fort Bend County Winner	James Talarico (D)	96%
	Ken Paxton (R)	3%
Georgia Governor Election Margin of Victory (First Round)	Jackson 3-6%	33%
	Jackson 0-3%	25%
	Bottoms 0-3%	17%
	Bottoms 3-6%	16%
	Bottoms 12%+	11%
	Jackson 6-9%	8%
	Bottoms 6-9%	8%
	Bottoms 9-12%	7%
	Jackson 12%+	4%
	Jackson 9-12%	2%
Massachusetts Senate Election: Turnout	2.65M-2.8M	37%
	2.8M-2.95M	32%
	2.95M-3.1M	16%
	<2.2M	7%
	2.2M-2.35M	7%
	2.5M-2.65M	7%
	3.1M+	7%
	2.35M-2.5M	6%
Mississippi Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)	Republican 10-15%	22%
	Republican 5-10%	22%
	Republican 0-5%	14%
	Republican 15-20%	11%
	Republican 25-30%	8%
	Democrat Wins	7%
	Republican 20-25%	6%
	Republican 30%+	3%
Louisiana Senate Election Margin of Victory	Republican 5-10%	34%
	Republican 10-15%	24%
	Republican 15-20%	21%
	Republican 0-5%	12%
	Republican 35%+	9%
	Democrat Wins	9%
	Republican 20-25%	7%
	Republican 25-30%	6%
	Republican 30-35%	4%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	30%

California Governor Election Winner Xavier Becerra

96%

Steve Hilton

Maine Senate Election Winner Troy Jackson (D)

60%

Susan Collins (R)

41%

Texas Senate Election Winner James Talarico (D)

62%

Ken Paxton (R)

40%

Alaska Governor Election Winner Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins

Michigan Senate Election Winner Abdul El-Sayed (D)

73%

Mike Rogers (R)

28%

Alaska Senate Election Winner Mary Peltola

73%

Sen. Dan Sullivan

28%

Ohio Senate Election Winner Sherrod Brown (D)

62%

Jon Husted (R)

37%

Iowa Senate Election Winner Ashley Hinson (R)

59%

Josh Turek (D)

42%

Nebraska Senate Election Winner Pete Ricketts (R)

70%

Independent

31%

South Carolina Senate Election Winner Darline Graham Nordone (R)

87%

Annie Andrews (D)

14%

Kansas Senate Election Winner Roger Marshall (R)

71%

Adam Hamilton (D)

30%

Texas Governor Election Winner Greg Abbott (R)

81%

Gina Hinojosa (D)

20%

New Hampshire Senate Election Winner Chris Pappas (D)

87%

John E. Sununu (R)

13%

Ohio Governor Election Winner Amy Acton (D)

60%

Vivek Ramaswamy (R)

41%

Florida Governor Election Winner Byron Donalds (R)

79%

David Jolly (D)

22%

Nevada Governor Election Winner Joe Lombardo (R)

53%

Aaron Ford (D)

48%

Florida Senate Election Winner Ashley Moody (R)

92%

Angie Nixon (D)

Georgia Governor Election Winner Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)

53%

Rick Jackson (R)

48%

Iowa Governor Election Winner Rob Sand (D)

83%

Zach Lahn (R)

16%

Vermont Governor Election Winner Phil Scott (R)

85%

Amanda Janoo (D)

15%

Idaho Senate Election Winner Jim Risch (R)

95%

Todd Achilles (I)

Arizona Governor Election Winner Katie Hobbs (D)

89%

Andy Biggs (R)

11%

Louisiana Senate Election Winner Julia Letlow (R)

93%

Jamie Davis (D)

South Dakota Senate Election Winner Mike Rounds (R)

94%

Brian Bengs (I)

New Hampshire Governor Election Winner Kelly Ayotte (R)

96%

Cinde Warmington (D)

Idaho Governor Election Margin of Victory Republican 25-30%

Nebraska Governor Election Winner Jim Pillen (R)

93%

Lynne Walz (D)

Colorado Governor Election Margin of Victory Democrat 20-25%

Florida Governor Election Margin of Victory Donalds 6-9%

Vermont Governor Election Margin of Victory Republican 0-5%

Arkansas Senate Election: Turnout 1.05M+

Florida Senate Election Margin of Victory Moody 6-9%

California Governor Election Margin of Victory Becerra 25-30%

Ohio Governor Election Margin of Victory Acton 3-6%

Idaho Senate Election: Turnout 600K-640K

Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory Paxton 0-3%

Wyoming Senate Election Margin of Victory Republican 40-45%

Massachusetts Governor Election Margin of Victory Democrat 30-35%

New Mexico Governor Election Margin of Victory Democrat 10-15%

Wyoming Governor Election Margin of Victory Republican 30-35%

Iowa Governor Election Margin of Victory Sand 6-9%

South Dakota Governor Election Margin of Victory Republican 20-25%

Nebraska Senate Election Margin of Victory Republican 0-3%

Delaware Senate Election Margin of Victory Democrat 30-35%

Texas Senate Election: Fort Bend County Winner James Talarico (D)

96%

Ken Paxton (R)

Georgia Governor Election Margin of Victory (First Round)Jackson 3-6%

Massachusetts Senate Election: Turnout 2.65M-2.8M

Mississippi Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)Republican 10-15%

Louisiana Senate Election Margin of Victory Republican 5-10%

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Yes

30%

关于2026年美国中期选举

2026 年美国中期选举定于 2026 年 11 月 3 日举行，将决定第 120 届美国国会的组成，同时改选大量州级和地方公职。全国选票上将包括众议院全部 435 个席位、参议院 100 席中的 35 席（含补选）、36 个州长职位，以及众多州议会、州政府和地方职位。这是自 1894 年以来首次在总统非连续第二任期内举行的全国中期选举：共和党在 2024 年大选中同时拿下总统、参议院和众议院，特朗普总统重返白宫，形成了 2017 年以来再未出现过的一党统一联邦政府。

从历史上看，总统所属政党往往会在中期选举中丢失众议院席位，这一规律可能重塑华盛顿的权力格局。选举预测模型已经在把这一基准趋势与早期指标放在一起衡量，比如特朗普总统的支持率和通用选票民调。政治学者和民调机构长期研究入主白宫的政党在此类选举中的表现。截至 2026 年 8 月初，全国民调均值显示民主党在国会通用选票上领先约 6 至 7 个百分点，而特朗普的支持率在汇总数据中处于 30% 区间的偏高位置，各家单独民调则从 30% 中段到高段不等。预计将主导 2026 周期的议题包括削减政府开支、移民执法、关税与贸易政策，以及福利项目的走向。参议院选情地图对共和党有利，众议院则有数十个郊区摇摆选区竞争激烈，2026 年中期选举有望成为近年来最具分量的一次。Polymarket 的预测市场为每一场重要选战提供实时的、由市场参与者共同定价的赔率，让用户在投票日到来前看到不带偏向的政治全景。

2026年参议院中期选举

在参议院，选情地图对民主党在结构上不利。共和党目前以 53 比 47 占据多数（民主党 45 席，加上两名与民主党一同议事的独立参议员），本轮改选的 35 个席位中，共和党需要守住 22 席，民主党守 13 席。由于大多数胶着选战都发生在偏向共和党或特朗普拿下的州，共和党在守住多数席位上具有结构性优势，而独立选民往往在这些选战中起决定作用。

缅因州仍是民主党的首要争夺目标：共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯要在一个 2024 年投给卡玛拉·哈里斯的州寻求连任。民主党同时瞄准北卡罗来纳州，参议员汤姆·蒂利斯退休后该席位空缺，前州长罗伊·库珀作为民主党候选人对阵共和党的迈克尔·沃特利。与此同时，民主党也必须守住自己的地盘，尤其是佐治亚州——参议员乔恩·奥索夫要在特朗普 2024 年拿下的州争取连任——以及密歇根州，那是一个空缺席位，若想保有争夺多数的现实路径，民主党几乎必须守住。

在密歇根州，进步派人士阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德于 2026 年 8 月 4 日赢得民主党初选，将在大选中对阵共和党的迈克·罗杰斯，争夺即将退休的参议员加里·彼得斯留下的席位。补选仍在不断改变选情版图：马可·卢比奥出任国务卿、JD·万斯出任副总统后空出的佛罗里达和俄亥俄两席仍在争夺之中；南卡罗来纳州则在 2026 年 8 月 11 日举行共和党特别初选，为 11 月的选票挑选新人选，此前参议员林赛·格雷厄姆已于 7 月 11 日去世。格雷厄姆的妹妹达琳·格雷厄姆·诺尔多内经州长亨利·麦克马斯特任命，将任职至 2027 年 1 月初以完成余下任期，她也是参加此次特别初选的共和党人之一。Polymarket 的交易者在参议院控制权市场上体现出共和党的防守优势，不过各场选战的赔率仍会随初选结果和全国民调而变动。

2026年众议院中期选举

众议院选举同样举足轻重。共和党在众议院的多数极为微弱，席位数在 218 左右，民主党则在 210 出头，另有一名独立议员（加州众议员凯文·凯利，他于 2026 年 3 月退出共和党），还有若干席位空缺待补选。以 2024 年结果为基准，民主党只需净增三个选区即可取得众议院控制权。预测模型和民调机构正在关注：通用选票哪怕只移动几个百分点，也可能让民主党拿下这一院。

本轮众议院选区地图包含多个重新划定的选区。俄亥俄州和犹他州正依据州宪法规定和法院裁决启用新地图，密苏里州、北卡罗来纳州和得克萨斯州已完成有利于共和党的中期重划，加利福尼亚州选民则在 2025 年 11 月批准了本州与之抗衡的重划方案。批评者称其中一些中期改动属于「杰利蝾螈」式操作，即为让某一政党受益而划定选区边界，多个州的新地图也因此面临司法审查。分析人士对净党派效应的估计并不一致，部分原因在于共和党在某些州取得的优势被加州的新地图所抵消。

根据选区层面的分析，多名民主党现任议员所在的选区在 2024 年由特朗普拿下，而多名共和党现任议员的选区则由哈里斯胜出。这在两党阵营都造就了一批真正难分胜负的众议院选战，随着投票日临近，它们将吸引大量资金和关注。

2026年州长选举

纽约州和宾夕法尼亚州等地备受瞩目的州长选战，预计将是资金充裕的激烈角逐，对能源、教育、医疗和刑事司法政策影响重大。在纽约州，民主党州长凯西·霍楚尔迎战共和党的布鲁斯·布莱克曼——拿骚县行政长官，两人均在 6 月的无对手初选中胜出。在宾夕法尼亚州，民主党州长乔什·夏皮罗寻求连任，对手是共和党籍州财政厅长斯泰西·加里蒂。许多现任州长都在争取连任，而 2026 年当选的州长还将在 2030 年之后的选区重划周期到来前塑造本州的政治格局。威斯康星州和俄亥俄州等地的空缺席位之争，进一步抬高了州级政策和未来国会选区地图的赌注。

2026年关键进展

截至 2026 年 8 月，联邦选举周期已全面展开，多个州的初选正在进行，整个夏秋还将陆续举行更多。这些选战让选民和交易者第一次清楚看到胶着选区中候选人的成色。8 月 4 日，密歇根州选民在备受关注的民主党参议员初选中提名了阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德。8 月 11 日，明尼苏达、威斯康星、康涅狄格和佛蒙特举行初选，南卡罗来纳州同时举行共和党参议员特别初选；8 月 18 日则轮到阿拉斯加、佛罗里达和怀俄明。

众议院于 2026 年 2 月 11 日通过了《SAVE America 法案》。若该法案在参议院过关并签署成为法律，联邦选举的选民登记将需要提供美国公民身份的书面证明，并新增带照片身份证件的要求。参议院在 3 月进行了辩论，但法案未能获得推进所需的 60 票，截至 8 月初仍处于停滞状态，支持者正在探索通过预算调节程序推出一个缩减规模、以激励为主的版本。支持者称这只是保障选举廉洁的直接措施；反对者则认为它可能让部分符合资格的选民更难投票。特朗普总统已公开将该法案与 11 月之前收紧投票规则的更广泛行动联系在一起。

与此同时，多个州围绕任期中重划国会选区的争论仍在继续，部分新地图正面临诉讼和「杰利蝾螈」指控。这些程序性问题，加上总统所属政党在中期选举中的历史性弱势、偏低的总统支持率，以及民主党在通用选票上的领先，正一并影响着选举预测模型，以及 Polymarket 上关于两院控制权和各场具体选战的定价。

Democrats 可能利用这些动态争取席位增长。总体而言，2026年中期选举代表了数十年来最具流动性的非总统选举周期之一。两院控制权都真正悬而未决，独立选民预计将在摇摆选区和州发挥超大作用，Polymarket 的实时预测市场提供了对每场重要竞选交易者共识的最清晰众包视角。即将到来的初选、立法投票以及国家环境的任何变化将继续实时推动概率变化。

常见问题

众议院93% DEM

参议院63% DEM

2026年中期选举赔率与预测

63% 概率 民主党 拿下 参议院

93% 概率 民主党 拿下 众议院

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