什么是 Polymarket？

2026年中期选举赔率 — 实时预测市场赔率
市场	热门候选人和提名人	实时市场赔率
California Governor Election Winner	Xavier Becerra	62%
	Tom Steyer	25%
	Steve Hilton	8%
	Chad Bianco	2%
Alaska Governor Election Winner	Tom Begich	38%
	Bernadette Wilson	20%
	Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	15%
	Treg Taylor	7%
	Click Bishop	6%
	Nancy Dahlstrom	6%
	David Bronson	3%
	Matt Claman	2%
	Adam Crum	1%
Alaska Senate Election Winner	Mary Peltola	55%
	Dan Sullivan	41%
Maine Senate Election Winner	Democrat	66%
	Republican	34%
Texas Senate Election Winner	Republican	54%
	Democrat	47%
Michigan Governor Election Winner	Democrat	83%
	Republican	12%
	Independent	2%
FL-06 Republican Primary Winner	Randy Fine	89%
	Dan Bilzerian	6%
	Alexandra Van Cleef	3%
	Aaron Baker	2%
NY-07 Democratic Primary Winner	Claire Valdez	69%
	Antonio Reynoso	31%
Nebraska Senate Election Winner	Republican	63%
	Independent	36%
	Democrat	3%
Iowa Senate Election Winner	Republican	63%
	Democrat	38%
Ohio Governor Election Winner	Republican	54%
	Democrat	44%
Ohio Senate Election Winner	Democrat	56%
	Republican	46%
Montana Senate Election Winner	Republican	72%
	Independent	16%
	Democrat	2%
NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner	Beth Davidson	43%
	Cait Conley	27%
	Effie Phillips-Staley	11%
	Mike Sacks	5%
	Peter Chatzky	1%
	Jessica Reinmann	1%
Minnesota Governor Election Winner	Democrat	93%
	Republican	4%
KY-04 Republican Primary: Turnout	100-110k	100%
MI-10 Democratic Primary Winner	Eric Chung	52%
	Christina Hines	32%
	Tim Greimel	11%
	Tripp Adams	1%
OK-01 Republican Primary Winner	Jackson Lahmeyer	75%
	Mark Tedford	30%
	Dan Rooney	2%
	Kim David	1%
NY-15 Democratic Primary Winner	Ritchie Torres	95%
	Michael Blake	3%
	Dalourny Nemorin	1%
Massachusetts Governor Election Winner	Democrat	95%
	Republican	5%
IA-02 Republican Primary Winner	Joe Mitchell	98%
	Charlie McClintock	2%
	Shannon Lundgren	1%
IA-01 Democratic Primary Winner	Christina Bohannan	98%
	Travis Terrell	2%
	Taylor Wettach	1%
Mississippi Senate Election Winner	Republican	90%
	Democrat	11%
MI-07 Democratic Primary Winner	Bridget Brink	74%
	William Lawrence	18%
	Matt Maasdam	4%
	Muhammad Salman Rais	3%
	Josh Cowen	2%
	Elyon Badger	2%
	Alexandra Prieditis	1%
Oklahoma Senate Election Winner	Republican	91%
	Democrat	9%
Texas Governor Election Winner	Republican	87%
	Democrat	13%
MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner	Wesley Bell	67%
	Cori Bush	34%
MD-06 Democratic Primary Winner	April McClain Delaney	70%
	David Trone	31%
	Kiambo White	1%
	Ethan Wechtaluk	1%
MT-01 Democratic Primary Winner	Ryan Busse	80%
	Samuel Forstag	14%
	Russell Cleveland	6%
	Matt Rains	1%
South Dakota Senate Election Winner	Republican	64%
	Democrat	5%
CA-41 Primary Winners	Linda Sánchez	96%
	Mitch Clemmons	85%
	Hector De La Torre	49%
	Shonique Williams	5%
MO-06 Republican Primary Winner	Chris Stigall	69%
	Nathan Willett	17%
	Gena Ross	5%
	Cody Oshel	5%
	Nathanael Schultz	5%
	James Ingram	4%
NV-03 Democratic Primary Winner	Susie Lee	88%
	James Lally	7%
	Terrill Robinson	5%
	Brandon West	1%
CA-13 Primary Winners	Adam Gray	98%
	Kevin Lincoln II	93%
	Vin Kruttiventi	18%
	Daniel Garibay Rodriguez	3%
SC-01 Democratic Primary Winner	Nancy Lacore	71%
	Mac Deford	13%
	Francina Dantzler	5%
	Ben Frasier	5%
	Mayra Rivera-Vazquez	4%
	Max Diaz	3%
	Matt Fulmer	2%
SC-06 Republican Primary Winner	Maurice Washington	89%
	John Peterson	8%
CA-32 Primary Winners	Brad Sherman	98%
	Larry Thompson	82%
	Jake Levine	44%
	Anna Wilding	36%
	Chris Ahuja	6%
	Josh Sautter	2%
	Dory Benami	2%
	Marena Lin	2%
	Doug Smith	2%
NV-02 Republican Primary Winner	David Flippo	47%
	James Settelmeyer	47%
	George Forbush	3%
	Bruce Grego	3%
	Doug Miller	3%
	Jerry Olsen	3%
	Fred Simon	3%
	Bill Conrad	2%
	Jesse Watts	2%
	Jennifer Billat	2%
	Rick Shepherd	2%
	Sherman Tylawsky	1%
	Tom Doyle	1%
	Andrea Lowe	1%
	Mike Smith	1%
NV-03 Republican Primary Winner	Martin O'Donnell	89%
	Jeff Gunter	6%
	Tera Anderson	1%
	Aury Nagy	1%
CA-14 Primary Winners	Aisha Wahab	89%
	Melissa Hernandez	57%
	Rakhi Israni Singh	43%
	Victor Aguilar Jr.	17%
	Suzanne Chenault	16%
	Carin Elam	8%
	Wendy Huang	7%
	Matt Ortega	6%
CA-09 Primary Winners	Josh Harder	97%
	John McBride	81%
	Parminder "Happy" Singh	7%
	Martin "Vmann" Veprauskas	6%
	Khalid Jeffrey Jafri	5%
SC-05 Democratic Primary Winner	Mallory Dittmer	83%
	Andrew Clough	12%
CA-01 Primary Winners	James Gallagher	95%
	Mike McGuire	78%
	Audrey Denney	28%
	Timothy Sean Kelly	7%
	Richard T. Minner	7%
	Janice Karrman	6%
	Angelita Valles	5%
CA-38 Primary Winners	Hilda Solis	97%
	Pedro Antonio Casas	71%
	Erik Lutz	43%
	Monica Sánchez	30%
CA-27 Primary Winners	George Whitesides	97%
	Jason Gibbs	96%
	Roberto Ramos	36%
	Caleb Norwood	6%

California Governor Election Winner Xavier Becerra

62%

Tom Steyer

25%

Steve Hilton

Chad Bianco

Alaska Governor Election Winner Tom Begich

38%

Bernadette Wilson

20%

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins

Alaska Senate Election Winner Mary Peltola

55%

Dan Sullivan

41%

Maine Senate Election Winner Democrat

66%

Republican

34%

Texas Senate Election Winner Republican

54%

Democrat

47%

Michigan Governor Election Winner Democrat

FL-06 Republican Primary Winner Randy Fine

NY-07 Democratic Primary Winner Claire Valdez

69%

Antonio Reynoso

31%

Nebraska Senate Election Winner Republican

Iowa Senate Election Winner Republican

63%

Democrat

38%

Ohio Governor Election Winner Republican

54%

Democrat

44%

Ohio Senate Election Winner Democrat

56%

Republican

46%

Montana Senate Election Winner Republican

NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner Beth Davidson

43%

Cait Conley

27%

Effie Phillips-Staley

Minnesota Governor Election Winner Democrat

93%

Republican

KY-04 Republican Primary: Turnout 100-110k

100%

MI-10 Democratic Primary Winner Eric Chung

OK-01 Republican Primary Winner Jackson Lahmeyer

NY-15 Democratic Primary Winner Ritchie Torres

95%

Michael Blake

Dalourny Nemorin

Massachusetts Governor Election Winner Democrat

95%

Republican

IA-02 Republican Primary Winner Joe Mitchell

98%

Charlie McClintock

Shannon Lundgren

IA-01 Democratic Primary Winner Christina Bohannan

98%

Travis Terrell

Taylor Wettach

Mississippi Senate Election Winner Republican

90%

Democrat

11%

MI-07 Democratic Primary Winner Bridget Brink

Oklahoma Senate Election Winner Republican

91%

Democrat

Texas Governor Election Winner Republican

87%

Democrat

13%

MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner Wesley Bell

67%

Cori Bush

34%

MD-06 Democratic Primary Winner April McClain Delaney

MT-01 Democratic Primary Winner Ryan Busse

South Dakota Senate Election Winner Republican

64%

Democrat

CA-41 Primary Winners Linda Sánchez

MO-06 Republican Primary Winner Chris Stigall

NV-03 Democratic Primary Winner Susie Lee

CA-13 Primary Winners Adam Gray

Daniel Garibay Rodriguez

SC-01 Democratic Primary Winner Nancy Lacore

SC-06 Republican Primary Winner Maurice Washington

89%

John Peterson

CA-32 Primary Winners Brad Sherman

NV-02 Republican Primary Winner David Flippo

NV-03 Republican Primary Winner Martin O'Donnell

CA-14 Primary Winners Aisha Wahab

CA-09 Primary Winners Josh Harder

97%

John McBride

81%

Parminder "Happy" Singh

Martin "Vmann" Veprauskas

Khalid Jeffrey Jafri

SC-05 Democratic Primary Winner Mallory Dittmer

83%

Andrew Clough

12%

CA-01 Primary Winners James Gallagher

CA-38 Primary Winners Hilda Solis

CA-27 Primary Winners George Whitesides

关于2026年美国中期选举

2026年美国中期选举定于2026年11月3日举行，将决定第120届美国国会的组成以及广泛的州和地方职位。全部435个众议院席位、100个参议院席位中的35个、美国各州36个州长职位以及全国各地众多州议会、行政和地方竞选都将出现在选票上。这是自1894年以来首次在非连续总统第二任期内举行的全国性中期选举，Donald Trump 总统在 Republicans 于2024年总统大选中横扫总统职位、参议院和众议院后重返白宫，建立了自2017年以来未曾出现的联邦政府统一执政。...

常见问题

众议院

81%

DEM

参议院

52%

REP

2026年中期选举赔率与预测

52% 概率 共和党 保住 参议院

81% 概率 民主党 拿下 众议院

公投

最大竞选

所有竞选

2026年中期选举赔率

关于2026年美国中期选举

常见问题

什么是 Polymarket？

Polymarket 的中期选举赔率准确吗？

在 Polymarket 上可以交易哪些美国中期选举预测市场？

Polymarket 上的中期选举市场如何运作？

目前最热门的美国中期选举预测是什么？

为什么使用 Polymarket 进行2026年中期选举预测？

我可以不交易也追踪中期选举预测吗？

如何开始在 Polymarket 上交易中期选举市场？

市场如何结算？

52% 概率共和党
保住参议院

81% 概率民主党
拿下众议院