什么是 Polymarket？

2026年中期选举赔率 — 实时预测市场赔率
市场	热门候选人和提名人	实时市场赔率
California Governor Election Winner	Xavier Becerra	92%
	Steve Hilton	6%
Alaska Governor Election Winner	Tom Begich	30%
	Bernadette Wilson	28%
	Treg Taylor	18%
	Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	14%
	David Bronson	8%
	Bill Walker	5%
	Nancy Dahlstrom	1%
	Matt Heilala	1%
	Shelley Hughes	1%
	Mary Peltola	1%
Maine Senate Election Winner	Democrat	68%
	Republican	34%
Texas Senate Election Winner	Ken Paxton (R)	51%
	James Talarico (D)	50%
MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner	Wesley Bell	65%
	Cori Bush	37%
FL-06 Republican Primary Winner	Randy Fine	96%
	Dan Bilzerian	1%
MI-13 Democratic Primary Winner	Donavan McKinney	82%
	Shri Thanedar	19%
Iowa Senate Election Winner	Ashley Hinson (R)	56%
	Josh Turek (D)	44%
Michigan Senate Election Winner	Democrat	69%
	Republican	33%
Ohio Senate Election Winner	Sherrod Brown (D)	52%
	Jon Husted (R)	49%
MI-07 Democratic Primary Winner	William Lawrence	94%
	Matt Maasdam	6%
	Bridget Brink	2%
Ohio Governor Election Winner	Republican	56%
	Democrat	45%
Montana Senate Election Winner	Republican	77%
	Independent	21%
	Democrat	1%
Georgia Senate Election Winner	Democrat	88%
	Republican	13%
Wisconsin Governor Election Winner	Democrat	56%
	Republican	45%
MI-10 Democratic Primary Winner	Christina Hines	91%
	Eric Chung	7%
	Tim Greimel	1%
MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner	Jeremy Moss	88%
	Aisha Farooqi	8%
FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner	Lois Frankel	98%
	Victoria Doyle	2%
FL-09 Republican Primary Winner	Thomas Chalifoux	44%
	Ben Butler	39%
	Dan Green	19%
	Marcus Carter	1%
	Justin Story	1%
	Steve Rance	1%
FL-21 Democratic Primary Winner	James Martin	61%
	Bernard Taylor	40%
FL-19 Republican Primary Winner	Jim Schwartzel	39%
	Catalina Lauf	21%
	Jim Oberweis	17%
	Madison Cawthorn	3%
	Bob Rommel	3%
	Spencer Roach	1%
Texas Governor Election Winner	Republican	85%
	Democrat	16%
Oregon Governor Election Winner	Democrat	85%
	Republican	16%
Mississippi Senate Election Winner	Republican	91%
	Democrat	10%
MI-01 Democratic Primary Winner	Callie Barr	73%
	Kyle Blomquist	28%
FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner	Debbie Wasserman Schultz	72%
	Elijah Manley	25%
Idaho Senate Election Winner	Republican	93%
	Democrat	4%
Oklahoma Governor Election Winner	Republican	95%
	Democrat	5%
NH-01 Democratic Primary Winner	Stefany Shaheen	76%
	Maura Sullivan	21%
	Heath Howard	5%
	Carleigh Beriont	1%
VA-01 Democratic Primary Winner	Shannon Taylor	98%
	Salaam Bhatti	2%
	Tim Cywinski	1%
MO-04 Democratic Primary Winner	Hartzell Gray	86%
	Jordan Herrera	14%
	Jeanette Cass	1%
	Randy Miller	1%
	G Rick	1%
TN-05 Republican Primary Winner	Andy Ogles	75%
	Charlie Hatcher	22%
Massachusetts Senate Election Winner	Democrat	94%
	Republican	2%
FL-02 Republican Primary Winner	Keith Gross	66%
	Austin Rogers	14%
	Evan Power	13%
	Lee Jones	4%
	Jim Norton	4%
	Nick Lewis	1%
MO-06 Republican Primary Winner	Chris Stigall	81%
	Nathan Willett	20%
	Cody Oshel	1%
	Nathanael Schultz	1%
Wyoming Senate Election Winner	Republican	95%
	Democrat	3%
Alabama Senate Election Winner	Republican	95%
	Democrat	5%
WI-03 Democratic Primary Winner	Rebecca Cooke	92%
	Emily Berge	4%
FL-25 Democratic Primary Winner	Jared Moskowitz	79%
	Oliver Larkin	21%
FL-11 Republican Primary Winner	Joe Strada	55%
	Carey Baker	31%
	Tim Wilkins	7%
	Ivette Palomo	2%
MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory	Bell <4%	34%
	Bush <4%	23%
	Bell 4–8%	10%
	Bush 4–8%	9%
	Bush 8–12%	6%
	Bush 12–16%	5%
	Bell 8–12%	5%
	Bush 16%+	4%
	Bell 12–16%	4%
	Bell 16%+	3%
FL-02 Democratic Primary Winner	Yen Bailey	45%
	Amanda Green	33%
	Nic Zateslo	11%
	Brice Barnes	5%
VA-09 Democratic Primary Winner	Joy Powers	57%
	Adam Murphy	31%
	Doug Crockett	7%
M0-02 Republican Primary Winner	Ann Wagner	98%
	Ryan Sheridan	1%
FL-24 Democratic Primary Winner	Oliver Gilbert	54%
	Shevrin Jones	37%
	Kendrick Meek Jr.	7%
	Marshall Davis Sr.	1%
	Jean Monestime	1%
	Roderick Vereen	1%
MI-13 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory	McKinney 8–12%	21%
	McKinney 4–8%	20%
	McKinney 12–16%	15%
	McKinney <4%	14%
	Thanedar <4%	13%
	Thanedar 4–8%	10%
	Thanedar 12–16%	10%
	Thanedar 16%+	10%
	McKinney 16%+	8%
	Thanedar 8–12%	1%
MO-05 Republican Primary Winner	Rick Brattin	77%
	Taylor Burks	17%
	Brett Hueffmeier	3%
	Micah Beebe	2%
	Berton A. Knox	1%
FL-07 Democratic Primary Winner	Bale Dalton	87%
	Marialana Kinter	9%
	Alan Grayson	4%
MA-01 Democratic Primary Winner	Richard Neal	84%
	Jeromie Whalen	12%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	31%

California Governor Election Winner Xavier Becerra

92%

Steve Hilton

Alaska Governor Election Winner Tom Begich

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins

Maine Senate Election Winner Democrat

68%

Republican

34%

Texas Senate Election Winner Ken Paxton (R)

51%

James Talarico (D)

50%

MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner Wesley Bell

65%

Cori Bush

37%

FL-06 Republican Primary Winner Randy Fine

96%

Dan Bilzerian

MI-13 Democratic Primary Winner Donavan McKinney

82%

Shri Thanedar

19%

Iowa Senate Election Winner Ashley Hinson (R)

56%

Josh Turek (D)

44%

Michigan Senate Election Winner Democrat

69%

Republican

33%

Ohio Senate Election Winner Sherrod Brown (D)

52%

Jon Husted (R)

49%

MI-07 Democratic Primary Winner William Lawrence

94%

Matt Maasdam

Bridget Brink

Ohio Governor Election Winner Republican

56%

Democrat

45%

Montana Senate Election Winner Republican

Georgia Senate Election Winner Democrat

88%

Republican

13%

Wisconsin Governor Election Winner Democrat

56%

Republican

45%

MI-10 Democratic Primary Winner Christina Hines

91%

Eric Chung

Tim Greimel

MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner Jeremy Moss

88%

Aisha Farooqi

FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner Lois Frankel

98%

Victoria Doyle

FL-09 Republican Primary Winner Thomas Chalifoux

FL-21 Democratic Primary Winner James Martin

61%

Bernard Taylor

40%

FL-19 Republican Primary Winner Jim Schwartzel

Texas Governor Election Winner Republican

85%

Democrat

16%

Oregon Governor Election Winner Democrat

85%

Republican

16%

Mississippi Senate Election Winner Republican

91%

Democrat

10%

MI-01 Democratic Primary Winner Callie Barr

73%

Kyle Blomquist

28%

FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner Debbie Wasserman Schultz

72%

Elijah Manley

25%

Idaho Senate Election Winner Republican

93%

Democrat

Oklahoma Governor Election Winner Republican

95%

Democrat

NH-01 Democratic Primary Winner Stefany Shaheen

VA-01 Democratic Primary Winner Shannon Taylor

98%

Salaam Bhatti

Tim Cywinski

MO-04 Democratic Primary Winner Hartzell Gray

TN-05 Republican Primary Winner Andy Ogles

75%

Charlie Hatcher

22%

Massachusetts Senate Election Winner Democrat

94%

Republican

FL-02 Republican Primary Winner Keith Gross

MO-06 Republican Primary Winner Chris Stigall

Wyoming Senate Election Winner Republican

95%

Democrat

Alabama Senate Election Winner Republican

95%

Democrat

WI-03 Democratic Primary Winner Rebecca Cooke

92%

Emily Berge

FL-25 Democratic Primary Winner Jared Moskowitz

79%

Oliver Larkin

21%

FL-11 Republican Primary Winner Joe Strada

MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory Bell <4%

FL-02 Democratic Primary Winner Yen Bailey

VA-09 Democratic Primary Winner Joy Powers

M0-02 Republican Primary Winner Ann Wagner

98%

Ryan Sheridan

FL-24 Democratic Primary Winner Oliver Gilbert

MI-13 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory McKinney 8–12%

MO-05 Republican Primary Winner Rick Brattin

FL-07 Democratic Primary Winner Bale Dalton

87%

Marialana Kinter

Alan Grayson

MA-01 Democratic Primary Winner Richard Neal

84%

Jeromie Whalen

12%

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Yes

31%

关于2026年美国中期选举

2026年美国中期选举定于2026年11月3日举行，将决定第120届美国国会的组成以及广泛的州和地方职位。全部435个众议院席位、100个参议院席位中的35个、美国各州36个州长职位以及全国各地众多州议会、行政和地方竞选都将出现在选票上。这是自1894年以来首次在非连续总统第二任期内举行的全国性中期选举，Donald Trump 总统在 Republicans 于2024年总统大选中横扫总统职位、参议院和众议院后重返白宫，建立了自2017年以来未曾出现的联邦政府统一执政。...

常见问题

众议院

86%

DEM

参议院

56%

REP

2026年中期选举赔率与预测

56% 概率 共和党 保住 参议院

86% 概率 民主党 拿下 众议院

公投

最大竞选

所有竞选

2026年中期选举赔率

关于2026年美国中期选举

常见问题

什么是 Polymarket？

Polymarket 的中期选举赔率准确吗？

在 Polymarket 上可以交易哪些美国中期选举预测市场？

Polymarket 上的中期选举市场如何运作？

目前最热门的美国中期选举预测是什么？

为什么使用 Polymarket 进行2026年中期选举预测？

我可以不交易也追踪中期选举预测吗？

如何开始在 Polymarket 上交易中期选举市场？

市场如何结算？

56% 概率共和党
保住参议院

86% 概率民主党
拿下众议院