Netanyahu convenes security cabinet and announces plans to discuss Iran developments with Trump, maintaining focus on security issues ahead of elections

Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 41%1%

Netanyahu convenes security cabinet and announces plans to discuss Iran developments with Trump, maintaining focus on security issues ahead of elections

Second Blue and White MK, Eitan Ginzburg, resigns from the party, highlighting further erosion of Gantz's political support

Benny Gantz dips to 0%1%

The consecutive departures confirmed the party's collapse and effectively ended market confidence in Gantz as a viable prime ministerial candidate.

Bennett publicly addresses U.S. relations and security issues, emphasizing Israel’s strength and need for American support, reinforcing his leadership image

Naftali Bennett rises to 38%2%

- [2026-04 (early)] Israeli security forces arrest an Israeli on suspicion of spying for Iran near Bennett’s residence, raising security profile and public sympathy

Senior Blue and White member quits amid party's poor polling performance

Benny Gantz dips to 1%1%

The resignation underscored ongoing party decline and diminished Gantz's chances of leading a successful election campaign.

Brother of Gaza hostages joins Lieberman’s party ahead of elections

Avigdor Lieberman rises to 6%4%

In early May 2026, Sharon Sharabi, brother of Gaza hostages, joined Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu party, praising Lieberman as the only politician who consistently warned about Hamas and called for its elimination. This endorsement briefly boosted market confidence in Lieberman’s chances.

During a meeting with UN special coordinator for Lebanon, Katz threatens “catastrophic consequences” if Hezbollah continues defiance, linking his stance to regional security and

Israel Katz dips to 0%1%

During a meeting with UN special coordinator for Lebanon, Katz threatens “catastrophic consequences” if Hezbollah continues defiance, linking his stance to regional security and further cementing his hard‑line reputation

Media coverage and political analysis highlight the "Together" alliance as a major challenge to Netanyahu, further increasing Bennett’s market

Naftali Bennett rises to 41%3%

Media coverage and political analysis highlight the "Together" alliance as a major challenge to Netanyahu, further increasing Bennett’s market

Netanyahu’s main rivals, former PMs Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, announce merger of their parties to form a united front against Netanyahu in upcoming election

Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 39%3%

Netanyahu’s main rivals, former PMs Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, announce merger of their parties to form a united front against Netanyahu in upcoming election

Opposition parties Bennett and Lapid form a joint alliance “Together,” consolidating anti-Netanyahu votes and sidelining Sa’ar

Gideon Sa’ar dips to 0%1%

The alliance of major opposition figures further marginalized Sa’ar’s prospects, keeping his market

Bennett and former PM Yair Lapid announce a joint political alliance called "Together," with Bennett as leader, significantly boosting his electoral prospects

Naftali Bennett jumps to 38%7%

Bennett and former PM Yair Lapid announce a joint political alliance called "Together," with Bennett as leader, significantly boosting his electoral prospects

Political landscape solidifies around Netanyahu and opposition coalitions, with no indication Cohen will enter the race

Yossi Cohen dips to 0%1%

As the election approaches, major political players and coalitions have formed without Cohen’s participation, leading the market to.

Bennett and Lapid launch “Together” party, merging their lists

Yair Lapid dips to 1%2%

The Jerusalem Post covered the joint press conference in Herzliya on 26 April 2026 where Bennett and Lapid announced the new “Together” party. While the merger aimed to consolidate the anti‑Netanyahu bloc, analysts noted that Lapid’s personal leadership prospects were further diluted, nudging his.

Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce "Together" alliance, excluding Eizenkot

Gadi Eizenkot drops to 9%9%

The formation of a strong opposition bloc under Bennett and Lapid sidelined Eizenkot, causing a sharp.

Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett announce merger of parties to run jointly in 2026 elections

Yair Lapid dips to 1%1%

Lapid and Bennett united their parties under a new joint list led by Bennett, signaling Lapid’s diminished personal chances of becoming Prime Minister and consolidating opposition efforts under Bennett’s leadership.

Official announcement of the “Together – Led by Bennett” alliance without Eizenkot’s party;

Gadi Eizenkot dips to 9%4%

market interprets his exclusion as a major setback

Lapid announces he will not run for prime minister in the upcoming election, opting to remain opposition leader

Yair Lapid dips to 1%1%

The explicit decision to step aside confirmed market expectations that another candidate would become prime minister, cementing Lapid’s near‑zero odds.

Katz publicly states Israel is “prepared to renew the war against Iran” and is waiting for a U.S.

Israel Katz dips to 1%1%

green light, repeating the same message across several outlets (Jerusalem Post, Pravda USA, Naharnet)

Katz joins IDF generals and Culture Minister Miki Zohar in lifting COVID‑related restrictions in northern Israel, a routine domestic move that briefly softened his war‑minister

Israel Katz rises to 2%1%

Katz joins IDF generals and Culture Minister Miki Zohar in lifting COVID‑related restrictions in northern Israel, a routine domestic move that briefly softened his war‑minister image

Katz and Prime Minister Netanyahu visit IDF troops in southern Lebanon, announcing “Operation Silver Plow” to disarm Hezbollah, raising his security‑focused profile

Israel Katz rises to 1%1%

Katz and Prime Minister Netanyahu visit IDF troops in southern Lebanon, announcing “Operation Silver Plow” to disarm Hezbollah, raising his security‑focused profile

Lieberman publicly criticizes Netanyahu’s Iran policy and ceasefire negotiations

Avigdor Lieberman dips to 1%1%

In April 2026, Lieberman sharply criticized Prime Minister Netanyahu’s handling of Iran and ceasefire talks, calling for regime change in Tehran and a more aggressive strategy. This vocal opposition highlighted his hardline stance but did not significantly improve his electoral prospects, keeping.

Yair Lapid sharply criticizes Netanyahu, accusing him of strategic failure and turning Israel into a satellite state

Yair Lapid dips to 2%1%

Following a ceasefire announcement, Lapid publicly attacked Netanyahu’s leadership and war strategy, reflecting his active opposition role but failing to significantly improve his electoral outlook.

Eizenkot’s Yashar party declines an invitation to formally join the “Together” list, citing policy differences;

Gadi Eizenkot drops to 13%5%

analysts predict the bloc will lose cohesion, pulling his

Israel Katz warns Iran that Israel is “awaiting a green light” from the United States before renewing war operations, emphasizing “different and deadly” attacks

Israel Katz dips to 0%3%

Israel Katz warns Iran that Israel is “awaiting a green light” from the United States before renewing war operations, emphasizing “different and deadly” attacks

Bennett officially registers his new political party "Bennett 2026," formalizing his election bid and increasing market confidence

Naftali Bennett jumps to 31%7%

Bennett officially registers his new political party "Bennett 2026," formalizing his election bid and increasing market confidence

Channel 12 poll shows the “Together” alliance (including Yashar) leading Likud by a few seats, pushing Eizenkot’s implied probability up to a peak of 18%

Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 18%5%

Channel 12 poll shows the “Together” alliance (including Yashar) leading Likud by a few seats, pushing Eizenkot’s implied probability up to a peak of 18%

Israel drops charges against soldiers accused of sexual assault;

Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 55%8%

Netanyahu defends military actions, emphasizing pursuit of enemies not soldiers

IDF Chief warns of security threats ahead of mass Gaza border protests

Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 12%8%

As former IDF Chief, Eizenkot's security expertise gained attention amid rising tensions, briefly boosting his political profile and market.

Eizenkot proposes a unified “center bloc” list with Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, aiming for 30‑40 seats;

Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 13%8%

pollsters briefly lift his odds as the alliance gains traction

Cohen’s memoirs and public appearances emphasize intelligence career but do not translate into political momentum

Despite Cohen’s memoir publication and media presence highlighting his Mossad achievements, he did not gain significant political traction or endorsements, keeping his market.

Benny Gantz attacks Lapid in a televised debate, accusing him of “political opportunism” and refusing to join any coalition with him

Yair Lapid rises to 2%2%

The high‑profile clash further eroded Lapid’s credibility as a coalition partner, nudging the

Polls show Gideon Sa’ar at about 2%, far behind Netanyahu and Bennett

Gideon Sa’ar dips to 0%1%

Polling data confirmed Sa’ar’s marginal position in the race, solidifying the market’s near-zero valuation of his chances.

Lapid issues stark warning on opposition unity, emphasizing no coalition with ultra-Orthodox parties

Yair Lapid rises to 6%2%

Lapid stressed the critical need for a united opposition front and ruled out alliances with ultra-Orthodox parties, highlighting challenges in coalition-building and impacting market confidence moderately.

Lapid calls on Bennett and Eisenkot to meet behind closed doors

Yair Lapid rises to 3%2%

A Times of Israel live‑blog on 16 February 2026 reported Lapid urging rival opposition leaders to negotiate privately, hinting at possible realignment and briefly lifting his odds .

Israel and U.S. launch major air campaign against Iran, with Netanyahu lobbying Trump for joint strikes, escalating regional conflict

Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 65%7%

Israel and U.S. launch major air campaign against Iran, with Netanyahu lobbying Trump for joint strikes, escalating regional conflict

Netanyahu releases document responding to State Comptroller investigation, blaming political rivals and presenting himself positively

Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 58%3%

Netanyahu releases document responding to State Comptroller investigation, blaming political rivals and presenting himself positively

Bennett unveils first candidates for his Bennett 2026 party list, including former government CEOs, strengthening his party’s credibility

Naftali Bennett jumps to 34%6%

Bennett unveils first candidates for his Bennett 2026 party list, including former government CEOs, strengthening his party’s credibility

Eizenkot announces he will run for Knesset with the newly created Yashar party, positioning himself as a centrist‑right alternative

Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 5%5%

Eizenkot announces he will run for Knesset with the newly created Yashar party, positioning himself as a centrist‑right alternative

Gadi Eizenkot proposes unified electoral list with Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid to form a large center bloc

Gadi Eizenkot rises to 5%3%

Eizenkot's initiative to unify opposition parties raised hopes for a stronger centrist challenge, causing a modest.

Lapid warns “liberal bloc” must unite or lose the election

Yair Lapid dips to 1%1%

In a televised address on 16 January 2026, Lapid cautioned that the centrist opposition would be defeated without a unified front, underscoring internal fragmentation and pushing his market.

Opposition leaders Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce alliance for 2026 elections, consolidating right-wing and centrist opposition

The formation of the "Together" party by Bennett and Lapid in early 2026 further marginalized Cohen’s chances, as major opposition forces united behind other candidates.

Market low point coincides with ongoing corruption investigations and political isolation

Avigdor Lieberman dips to 0%2%

Persistent corruption allegations and investigations into Lieberman’s financial dealings, including accusations of receiving bribes and money laundering, undermined his political standing and public trust, reflected in the market hitting its lowest.

Bennett publicly withdraws from the joint list, citing “strategic differences” and re‑launches New Hope as a separate party

Yair Lapid drops to 0%7%

The breakup removed the coalition advantage Lapid had hoped for, sending his market

Israel becomes first country to recognize Somaliland as independent under Netanyahu’s premiership, signaling diplomatic assertiveness

Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 56%3%

Israel becomes first country to recognize Somaliland as independent under Netanyahu’s premiership, signaling diplomatic assertiveness

Netanyahu meets with former U.S.

Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 55%2%

President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago, highlighting tensions with U.S. administration over Israel’s regional policies

Netanyahu’s government faces mounting pressure amid political turmoil and trial, diminishing prospects for Cohen’s rise

Yossi Cohen dips to 1%2%

As Netanyahu’s coalition struggles with internal dissent and legal challenges, speculation about successors like Cohen waned, with political focus shifting to other figures and alliances, reducing Cohen’s perceived viability.

Eizenkot’s son’s death widely reported leads to a media backlash against Netanyahu’s war handling, but no concrete political move from Eizenkot, causing his

Gadi Eizenkot plunges to 0%31%

Eizenkot’s son’s death widely reported leads to a media backlash against Netanyahu’s war handling, but no concrete political move from Eizenkot, causing his

Bennett confirms his Telegram account was hacked by Iranian hackers, raising security concerns and impacting his public image

Naftali Bennett rises to 38%3%

Bennett confirms his Telegram account was hacked by Iranian hackers, raising security concerns and impacting his public image

Poll finds Lapid’s Yesh Atid steady at nine seats but still far behind Likud

Yair Lapid dips to 6%3%

A Haaretz poll on 12 December 2025 showed Lapid’s party holding nine seats, unchanged but still well below Likud, reinforcing the market’s low confidence in his chances .

Yesh Atid poll slip to 7 % in nationwide survey, its lowest since 2013

Yair Lapid plunges to 7%23%

The poll showed the new joint list trailing the left‑wing bloc, prompting investors to cut Lapid’s probability sharply.

Report reveals Yair Lapid held secret meeting with senior Qatari officials, then backtracked

Yair Lapid rises to 9%4%

News broke that Lapid met privately with Qatari representatives in December 2025, contradicting his initial public denial, raising questions about his transparency but briefly boosting attention and speculation on his diplomatic efforts.

National Unity alliance struggles to gain significant voter support in polls

Gadi Eizenkot dips to 1%1%

Polls showed the alliance, including Eizenkot, failing to break through significantly, leading to a sustained low market.

Netanyahu formally requests a pardon from President Isaac Herzog amid ongoing legal troubles

Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 53%1%

Netanyahu formally requests a pardon from President Isaac Herzog amid ongoing legal troubles

International Criminal Court issues arrest warrants for Netanyahu and others for alleged war crimes during Gaza war;

Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 51%2%

Netanyahu calls ruling "absurd and antisemitic"

Lapid and Bennett announce they will merge Yesh Atid and New Hope into a single centrist‑right list for the 2026 election

Yair Lapid plunges to 30%20%

The merger was presented as a “unity front” against Netanyahu, but analysts warned it would dilute Lapid’s brand and hurt his personal odds.

Yair Lapid warns Israeli opposition of risk of electoral defeat without unity

Yair Lapid plunges to 7%43%

Lapid publicly cautioned that the fragmented liberal bloc risks losing the upcoming election if opposition parties fail to unite, signaling weakening confidence in his standalone leadership prospects.

Market opens with Gideon Sa’ar at 49% but quickly falls after no major campaign or leadership moves

Gideon Sa’ar plunges to 1%48%

Initial optimism about Sa’ar’s chances faded rapidly as he did not emerge as a leading candidate, reflected in the market’s quick

Former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen publicly signals ambition to be Prime Minister but clarifies he will not run in the next election

Yossi Cohen plunges to 3%46%

Cohen made headlines in November 2025 by stating that "for real change to happen, I need to be prime minister," but shortly thereafter clarified he would not be running in the upcoming election, causing a sharp drop in market confidence in his candidacy.

Eizenkot’s son Gal Meir killed in Gaza operation, sparking national sympathy and a short‑term boost to his political profile

Gadi Eizenkot plunges to 31%18%

Eizenkot’s son Gal Meir killed in Gaza operation, sparking national sympathy and a short‑term boost to his political profile

Avigdor Lieberman resigns as Defense Minister over Gaza ceasefire disagreement

Avigdor Lieberman plunges to 1%48%

Lieberman resigned from the government in November 2018 over a ceasefire deal with Hamas, a stance that continued to define his political posture through 2025. His firm opposition to concessions to religious parties and ceasefire agreements diminished his coalition prospects, contributing to a steep drop in market confidence by November 2025.

Naftali Bennett announces intention to run for Prime Minister in the upcoming election during a talk at Yeshiva University, signaling his political comeback and boosting market

Naftali Bennett plunges to 33%16%

Naftali Bennett announces intention to run for Prime Minister in the upcoming election during a talk at Yeshiva University, signaling his political comeback and boosting market interest

Poll shows Yesh Atid collapsing to 5 seats, Lapid’s odds plunge

Yair Lapid plunges to 6%44%

A Times of Israel poll released in early November 2025 reported Yesh Atid slipping to just five Knesset seats, its lowest showing, while rival opposition parties surged. The shock‑drop in Lapid’s projected support drove the market’s biggest single‑day fall .

Gadi Eizenkot joins new political alliance "National Unity" with Benny Gantz and Gideon Sa'ar

Gadi Eizenkot plunges to 1%48%

Eizenkot announced his entry into politics by joining the National Unity alliance, aiming to present a centrist alternative to Netanyahu. Initial market enthusiasm quickly dropped as his political impact was seen as limited compared to established leaders.

Gadi Eisenkot resigns from Benny Gantz's National Unity party over leadership election disputes

Benny Gantz plunges to 3%46%

Eisenkot's departure signaled internal party instability and weakened Gantz's leadership prospects, triggering a major drop in market confidence.

Viral social media rumors falsely claim Yariv Levin appointed interim Prime Minister amid Netanyahu death rumors

Yariv Levin rises to 2%1%

A viral but false claim about Levin becoming interim PM briefly increased speculation about his leadership prospects, though it was not official.

Gideon Sa’ar agrees to dissolve New Hope faction and merge into Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party

This merger ended Sa’ar’s independent party status and signaled his reduced role as a separate contender for Prime Minister, causing a sharp drop in market confidence.

Levin initiates proceedings to fire Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, escalating judicial conflict

Yariv Levin rises to 1%1%

Levin’s move against the Attorney General was seen as an assault on rule of law, further polarizing politics and diminishing his electability.

Supreme Court President Yitzhak Amit sworn in despite Levin’s boycott, marking constitutional crisis

Yariv Levin dips to 0%1%

Levin refused to acknowledge the new Supreme Court President, boycotted the inauguration, deepening a constitutional crisis and undermining his political standing.

Yariv Levin inherits three additional ministerial portfolios, consolidating power

Yariv Levin plunges to 1%48%

Levin was assigned multiple key ministries, including Justice, Interior, and Religious Services, increasing his influence but also associating him with controversial judicial reforms that sparked public backlash and reduced market confidence in his premiership chances.

Yariv Levin demands legislation criminalizing Israeli calls for international sanctions against Israel

Levin wrote to the Attorney General demanding a law imposing harsh penalties on Israelis promoting sanctions against Israel, signaling his hardline stance and raising his profile as a potential PM candidate.