Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Iranian regime enduring past April 30, reflecting U.S. intelligence assessments from March 11 stating the government remains intact and not at imminent risk of collapse despite relentless airstrikes and prior unrest. Recent repression measures, including implementation of sentences against January protesters on March 23 and preemptive steps to block anti-establishment demonstrations reported March 15, underscore the regime's control via the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and security apparatus. While nationwide protests dubbed the "Crimson Winter" peaked in December 2025–February 2026 over economic woes, no unified opposition or institutional fractures have emerged in the past 30 days amid ongoing Israel-U.S. military actions, solidifying the view of stability through suppression and hardliner consolidation. Late-breaking escalations or internal defections could shift dynamics, but structural resilience prevails.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于伊朗政权会在4月30日前倒台吗？
伊朗政权会在4月30日前倒台吗？
是
$11,980,517 交易量
$11,980,517 交易量
Apr 30, 2026
是
$11,980,517 交易量
$11,980,517 交易量
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Iranian regime enduring past April 30, reflecting U.S. intelligence assessments from March 11 stating the government remains intact and not at imminent risk of collapse despite relentless airstrikes and prior unrest. Recent repression measures, including implementation of sentences against January protesters on March 23 and preemptive steps to block anti-establishment demonstrations reported March 15, underscore the regime's control via the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and security apparatus. While nationwide protests dubbed the "Crimson Winter" peaked in December 2025–February 2026 over economic woes, no unified opposition or institutional fractures have emerged in the past 30 days amid ongoing Israel-U.S. military actions, solidifying the view of stability through suppression and hardliner consolidation. Late-breaking escalations or internal defections could shift dynamics, but structural resilience prevails.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ET
交易量
$11,980,517结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Iranian regime enduring past April 30, reflecting U.S. intelligence assessments from March 11 stating the government remains intact and not at imminent risk of collapse despite relentless airstrikes and prior unrest. Recent repression measures, including implementation of sentences against January protesters on March 23 and preemptive steps to block anti-establishment demonstrations reported March 15, underscore the regime's control via the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and security apparatus. While nationwide protests dubbed the "Crimson Winter" peaked in December 2025–February 2026 over economic woes, no unified opposition or institutional fractures have emerged in the past 30 days amid ongoing Israel-U.S. military actions, solidifying the view of stability through suppression and hardliner consolidation. Late-breaking escalations or internal defections could shift dynamics, but structural resilience prevails.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$11,980,517结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Iranian regime enduring past April 30, reflecting U.S. intelligence assessments from March 11 stating the government remains intact and not at imminent risk of collapse despite relentless airstrikes and prior unrest. Recent repression measures, including implementation of sentences against January protesters on March 23 and preemptive steps to block anti-establishment demonstrations reported March 15, underscore the regime's control via the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and security apparatus. While nationwide protests dubbed the "Crimson Winter" peaked in December 2025–February 2026 over economic woes, no unified opposition or institutional fractures have emerged in the past 30 days amid ongoing Israel-U.S. military actions, solidifying the view of stability through suppression and hardliner consolidation. Late-breaking escalations or internal defections could shift dynamics, but structural resilience prevails.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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