Trader consensus reflects a 79.5% implied probability that the Iranian regime will not fall by June 30, anchored by its institutional resilience under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. The May 19 helicopter crash killing President Ebrahim Raisi prompted a snap presidential election, with first-round voting on June 28 advancing reformist Masoud Pezeshkian to a July 5 runoff against conservative Saeed Jalili, demonstrating orderly transition amid subdued protests. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) continues suppressing dissent, as seen in prior crackdowns like the 2022 Mahsa Amini unrest. No mass uprisings, military defections, or escalation from Israel tensions have emerged in recent weeks to threaten regime stability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$21,795,834 交易量
$21,795,834 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
是
$21,795,834 交易量
$21,795,834 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects a 79.5% implied probability that the Iranian regime will not fall by June 30, anchored by its institutional resilience under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. The May 19 helicopter crash killing President Ebrahim Raisi prompted a snap presidential election, with first-round voting on June 28 advancing reformist Masoud Pezeshkian to a July 5 runoff against conservative Saeed Jalili, demonstrating orderly transition amid subdued protests. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) continues suppressing dissent, as seen in prior crackdowns like the 2022 Mahsa Amini unrest. No mass uprisings, military defections, or escalation from Israel tensions have emerged in recent weeks to threaten regime stability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
交易量
$21,795,834结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects a 79.5% implied probability that the Iranian regime will not fall by June 30, anchored by its institutional resilience under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. The May 19 helicopter crash killing President Ebrahim Raisi prompted a snap presidential election, with first-round voting on June 28 advancing reformist Masoud Pezeshkian to a July 5 runoff against conservative Saeed Jalili, demonstrating orderly transition amid subdued protests. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) continues suppressing dissent, as seen in prior crackdowns like the 2022 Mahsa Amini unrest. No mass uprisings, military defections, or escalation from Israel tensions have emerged in recent weeks to threaten regime stability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$21,796,250结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 79.5% implied probability that the Iranian regime will not fall by June 30, anchored by its institutional resilience under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. The May 19 helicopter crash killing President Ebrahim Raisi prompted a snap presidential election, with first-round voting on June 28 advancing reformist Masoud Pezeshkian to a July 5 runoff against conservative Saeed Jalili, demonstrating orderly transition amid subdued protests. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) continues suppressing dissent, as seen in prior crackdowns like the 2022 Mahsa Amini unrest. No mass uprisings, military defections, or escalation from Israel tensions have emerged in recent weeks to threaten regime stability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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