Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 49.3% to become Supreme Leader by end of 2026, reflecting his reported dominance over IRGC intelligence networks and clerical factions, positioning him as the establishment heir amid Ali Khamenei's age of 85 and persistent health rumors without confirmed decline. Reza Pahlavi's 12.5% share captures exiled opposition momentum from diaspora activism and echoes of 2022 protests, amplified by recent Israel-Iran military exchanges— including Iran's October 1 missile barrage and Israel's October 26 airstrikes—that highlighted regime vulnerabilities but failed to spark domestic upheaval. Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf at 12.0% and Hassan Khomeini at 8.7% draw from hardliner credentials and symbolic ties to the Islamic Republic's founding, post-President Pezeshkian's July reformist election that stabilized short-term leadership without altering succession dynamics. Upcoming Assembly of Experts sessions could clarify constitutional processes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊 49.4%
礼萨·巴列维 13%
穆罕默德-巴盖尔·加利巴夫 12.2%
哈桑·霍梅尼 8.7%
$4,671,527 交易量
$4,671,527 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊
49%
礼萨·巴列维
13%
穆罕默德-巴盖尔·加利巴夫
12%
哈桑·霍梅尼
9%
没有国家元首
3%
萨德格·拉里贾尼
3%
哈桑·鲁哈尼
3%
阿里雷扎·阿拉菲
2%
马苏德·佩泽什基安
1%
马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪内贾德
1%
艾哈迈德·瓦希迪
1%
阿巴斯·阿拉格奇
1%
玛丽亚姆·拉贾维
<1%
阿里·阿斯加尔·赫贾齐
<1%
穆罕默德·米尔巴奇里
<1%
哈桑·沙里亚特马达里
<1%
阿里·莫塔哈里
<1%
纳维德·肖马利
<1%
穆斯塔法·普尔穆罕默迪
<1%
穆罕默德·哈塔米
<1%
纳西尔·侯赛因尼
<1%
马苏德·拉贾维
<1%
赛义德·侯赛因·穆萨维安
<1%
雷扎·皮尔扎德
<1%
穆斯塔法·希吉里
<1%
戈拉姆-阿里·哈达德-阿德尔
<1%
萨德格·马赫苏利
<1%
赛义德·贾利利
<1%
穆赫森·阿拉基
<1%
艾哈迈德·侯赛尼·呼罗珊尼
<1%
莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊 49.4%
礼萨·巴列维 13%
穆罕默德-巴盖尔·加利巴夫 12.2%
哈桑·霍梅尼 8.7%
$4,671,527 交易量
$4,671,527 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊
$898,938 交易量
49%
礼萨·巴列维
$115,418 交易量
13%
穆罕默德-巴盖尔·加利巴夫
$26,615 交易量
12%
哈桑·霍梅尼
$576,693 交易量
9%
没有国家元首
$206,614 交易量
3%
萨德格·拉里贾尼
$167,831 交易量
3%
哈桑·鲁哈尼
$177,059 交易量
3%
阿里雷扎·阿拉菲
$431,770 交易量
2%
马苏德·佩泽什基安
$212,190 交易量
1%
马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪内贾德
$43,665 交易量
1%
艾哈迈德·瓦希迪
$186,158 交易量
1%
阿巴斯·阿拉格奇
$86,527 交易量
1%
玛丽亚姆·拉贾维
$235,846 交易量
<1%
阿里·阿斯加尔·赫贾齐
$69,983 交易量
<1%
穆罕默德·米尔巴奇里
$265,443 交易量
<1%
哈桑·沙里亚特马达里
$140,236 交易量
<1%
阿里·莫塔哈里
$42,611 交易量
<1%
纳维德·肖马利
$49,128 交易量
<1%
穆斯塔法·普尔穆罕默迪
$55,992 交易量
<1%
穆罕默德·哈塔米
$204,217 交易量
<1%
纳西尔·侯赛因尼
$9,947 交易量
<1%
马苏德·拉贾维
$17,998 交易量
<1%
赛义德·侯赛因·穆萨维安
$28,436 交易量
<1%
雷扎·皮尔扎德
$23,119 交易量
<1%
穆斯塔法·希吉里
$14,959 交易量
<1%
戈拉姆-阿里·哈达德-阿德尔
$30,576 交易量
<1%
萨德格·马赫苏利
$43,128 交易量
<1%
赛义德·贾利利
$35,720 交易量
<1%
穆赫森·阿拉基
$23,553 交易量
<1%
艾哈迈德·侯赛尼·呼罗珊尼
$14,295 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 49.3% to become Supreme Leader by end of 2026, reflecting his reported dominance over IRGC intelligence networks and clerical factions, positioning him as the establishment heir amid Ali Khamenei's age of 85 and persistent health rumors without confirmed decline. Reza Pahlavi's 12.5% share captures exiled opposition momentum from diaspora activism and echoes of 2022 protests, amplified by recent Israel-Iran military exchanges— including Iran's October 1 missile barrage and Israel's October 26 airstrikes—that highlighted regime vulnerabilities but failed to spark domestic upheaval. Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf at 12.0% and Hassan Khomeini at 8.7% draw from hardliner credentials and symbolic ties to the Islamic Republic's founding, post-President Pezeshkian's July reformist election that stabilized short-term leadership without altering succession dynamics. Upcoming Assembly of Experts sessions could clarify constitutional processes.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
市场开放时间： Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
交易量
$4,671,527结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 49.3% to become Supreme Leader by end of 2026, reflecting his reported dominance over IRGC intelligence networks and clerical factions, positioning him as the establishment heir amid Ali Khamenei's age of 85 and persistent health rumors without confirmed decline. Reza Pahlavi's 12.5% share captures exiled opposition momentum from diaspora activism and echoes of 2022 protests, amplified by recent Israel-Iran military exchanges— including Iran's October 1 missile barrage and Israel's October 26 airstrikes—that highlighted regime vulnerabilities but failed to spark domestic upheaval. Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf at 12.0% and Hassan Khomeini at 8.7% draw from hardliner credentials and symbolic ties to the Islamic Republic's founding, post-President Pezeshkian's July reformist election that stabilized short-term leadership without altering succession dynamics. Upcoming Assembly of Experts sessions could clarify constitutional processes.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
交易量
$4,671,527结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 49.3% to become Supreme Leader by end of 2026, reflecting his reported dominance over IRGC intelligence networks and clerical factions, positioning him as the establishment heir amid Ali Khamenei's age of 85 and persistent health rumors without confirmed decline. Reza Pahlavi's 12.5% share captures exiled opposition momentum from diaspora activism and echoes of 2022 protests, amplified by recent Israel-Iran military exchanges— including Iran's October 1 missile barrage and Israel's October 26 airstrikes—that highlighted regime vulnerabilities but failed to spark domestic upheaval. Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf at 12.0% and Hassan Khomeini at 8.7% draw from hardliner credentials and symbolic ties to the Islamic Republic's founding, post-President Pezeshkian's July reformist election that stabilized short-term leadership without altering succession dynamics. Upcoming Assembly of Experts sessions could clarify constitutional processes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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