Mojtaba Khamenei's March 8, 2026, appointment as Supreme Leader by Iran's Assembly of Experts—following his father Ali Khamenei's death amid US-Israeli strikes—drives trader consensus at 67% implied probability for his tenure through year-end, reflecting IRGC backing and rapid institutional continuity despite dynastic optics. Recent intelligence reports of his severe injuries and unconsciousness in Qom as of early April introduce volatility, elevating Reza Pahlavi to 8.5% amid opposition calls for transition and 2026 protests. Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf's 7.5% share underscores his hardline role, while a purported defiant statement from Mojtaba on April 18 signals resilience against external pressures and internal health concerns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊 66.7%
礼萨·巴列维 9%
穆罕默德-巴盖尔·加利巴夫 7.5%
哈桑·鲁哈尼 4.6%
$6,606,614 交易量
$6,606,614 交易量
2026-12-31
莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊
67%
礼萨·巴列维
9%
穆罕默德-巴盖尔·加利巴夫
8%
哈桑·鲁哈尼
5%
阿里雷扎·阿拉菲
3%
马苏德·佩泽什基安
3%
没有国家元首
2%
阿巴斯·阿拉格奇
1%
马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪内贾德
1%
哈桑·霍梅尼
1%
艾哈迈德·瓦希迪
1%
穆罕默德·米尔巴奇里
<1%
穆罕默德·哈塔米
<1%
赛义德·贾利利
<1%
萨德格·拉里贾尼
<1%
玛丽亚姆·拉贾维
<1%
纳维德·肖马利
<1%
阿里·阿斯加尔·赫贾齐
<1%
哈桑·沙里亚特马达里
<1%
马苏德·拉贾维
<1%
赛义德·侯赛因·穆萨维安
<1%
雷扎·皮尔扎德
<1%
穆斯塔法·希吉里
<1%
阿里·莫塔哈里
<1%
戈拉姆-阿里·哈达德-阿德尔
<1%
穆斯塔法·普尔穆罕默迪
<1%
萨德格·马赫苏利
<1%
穆赫森·阿拉基
<1%
纳西尔·侯赛因尼
<1%
艾哈迈德·侯赛尼·呼罗珊尼
<1%
莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊 66.7%
礼萨·巴列维 9%
穆罕默德-巴盖尔·加利巴夫 7.5%
哈桑·鲁哈尼 4.6%
$6,606,614 交易量
$6,606,614 交易量
2026-12-31
莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊
$1,563,990 交易量
67%
礼萨·巴列维
$156,306 交易量
9%
穆罕默德-巴盖尔·加利巴夫
$173,940 交易量
8%
哈桑·鲁哈尼
$282,017 交易量
5%
阿里雷扎·阿拉菲
$780,998 交易量
3%
马苏德·佩泽什基安
$252,040 交易量
3%
没有国家元首
$370,209 交易量
2%
阿巴斯·阿拉格奇
$106,337 交易量
1%
马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪内贾德
$53,114 交易量
1%
哈桑·霍梅尼
$733,134 交易量
1%
艾哈迈德·瓦希迪
$201,121 交易量
1%
穆罕默德·米尔巴奇里
$277,759 交易量
<1%
穆罕默德·哈塔米
$247,328 交易量
<1%
赛义德·贾利利
$48,153 交易量
<1%
萨德格·拉里贾尼
$178,260 交易量
<1%
玛丽亚姆·拉贾维
$258,480 交易量
<1%
纳维德·肖马利
$55,698 交易量
<1%
阿里·阿斯加尔·赫贾齐
$77,212 交易量
<1%
哈桑·沙里亚特马达里
$155,410 交易量
<1%
马苏德·拉贾维
$26,559 交易量
<1%
赛义德·侯赛因·穆萨维安
$35,133 交易量
<1%
雷扎·皮尔扎德
$29,259 交易量
<1%
穆斯塔法·希吉里
$22,021 交易量
<1%
阿里·莫塔哈里
$52,782 交易量
<1%
戈拉姆-阿里·哈达德-阿德尔
$37,619 交易量
<1%
穆斯塔法·普尔穆罕默迪
$69,418 交易量
<1%
萨德格·马赫苏利
$49,664 交易量
<1%
穆赫森·阿拉基
$32,656 交易量
<1%
纳西尔·侯赛因尼
$16,790 交易量
<1%
艾哈迈德·侯赛尼·呼罗珊尼
$26,345 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei's March 8, 2026, appointment as Supreme Leader by Iran's Assembly of Experts—following his father Ali Khamenei's death amid US-Israeli strikes—drives trader consensus at 67% implied probability for his tenure through year-end, reflecting IRGC backing and rapid institutional continuity despite dynastic optics. Recent intelligence reports of his severe injuries and unconsciousness in Qom as of early April introduce volatility, elevating Reza Pahlavi to 8.5% amid opposition calls for transition and 2026 protests. Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf's 7.5% share underscores his hardline role, while a purported defiant statement from Mojtaba on April 18 signals resilience against external pressures and internal health concerns.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
市场开放时间： Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
交易量
$6,606,614结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei's March 8, 2026, appointment as Supreme Leader by Iran's Assembly of Experts—following his father Ali Khamenei's death amid US-Israeli strikes—drives trader consensus at 67% implied probability for his tenure through year-end, reflecting IRGC backing and rapid institutional continuity despite dynastic optics. Recent intelligence reports of his severe injuries and unconsciousness in Qom as of early April introduce volatility, elevating Reza Pahlavi to 8.5% amid opposition calls for transition and 2026 protests. Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf's 7.5% share underscores his hardline role, while a purported defiant statement from Mojtaba on April 18 signals resilience against external pressures and internal health concerns.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
交易量
$6,606,614结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mojtaba Khamenei's March 8, 2026, appointment as Supreme Leader by Iran's Assembly of Experts—following his father Ali Khamenei's death amid US-Israeli strikes—drives trader consensus at 67% implied probability for his tenure through year-end, reflecting IRGC backing and rapid institutional continuity despite dynastic optics. Recent intelligence reports of his severe injuries and unconsciousness in Qom as of early April introduce volatility, elevating Reza Pahlavi to 8.5% amid opposition calls for transition and 2026 protests. Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf's 7.5% share underscores his hardline role, while a purported defiant statement from Mojtaba on April 18 signals resilience against external pressures and internal health concerns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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