President Trump imposed a US naval blockade on Iranian vessels and ports in the Strait of Hormuz on April 12, 2026, after peace talks in Islamabad collapsed, escalating the ongoing regional crisis. Trader consensus prices an announcement lifting the blockade by June 30 at 66%, driven by recent de-escalation signals including Trump's May 5 pause of "Project Freedom"—a US Navy effort to escort commercial ships through the strait—amid Pakistan-mediated negotiations with Iran. Trump has conditioned any lift on a comprehensive deal, with no such agreement confirmed despite Iran's claims of reopening the waterway. Ongoing diplomacy and mine-sweeping operations could accelerate resolution, though stalemates risk prolongation into summer.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Iran’s foreign minister announces the Strait is open to commercial traffic for the duration of a ceasefire, and Trump posts on Truth Social that the waterway is “fully open and
June 30 surges to 73%17%
Iran’s foreign minister announces the Strait is open to commercial traffic for the duration of a ceasefire, and Trump posts on Truth Social that the waterway is “fully open and ready for business,” sparking optimism that the blockade could be lifted
No official announcement from President Trump or US government lifting the blockade by the deadline, despite Iranian ceasefire claims and partial reopening announcements.
May 31 plunges to 41%40%
The market settled lower as traders recognized the blockade remained in place
US Central Command confirms blockade enforcement began April 13, clarifying it targets vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports but not those transiting to non-Iranian ports,
May 31 surges to 81%56%
US Central Command confirms blockade enforcement began April 13, clarifying it targets vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports but not those transiting to non-Iranian ports, adding operational detail and firming market confidence in blockade enforcement. This official clarification caused a
Iran announces partial reopening of the Strait for commercial vessels during a ceasefire, but Trump states the blockade remains in full force until a deal is reached, causing
June 30 surges to 82%54%
Iran announces partial reopening of the Strait for commercial vessels during a ceasefire, but Trump states the blockade remains in full force until a deal is reached, causing market volatility and a
Reports emerge that Trump directs aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade after failed peace talks and Iran's refusal to meet US conditions, signaling low near-term prospects
June 30 jumps to 28%10%
Reports emerge that Trump directs aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade after failed peace talks and Iran's refusal to meet US conditions, signaling low near-term prospects for lifting; Saudi Arabia publicly urges US to lift blockade to avoid regional escalation
Reports that Iran partially reopened the Strait for non-hostile traffic during a ceasefire, but US officials and Trump insist the blockade remains in full force until a deal is
May 31 drops to 28%7%
Reports that Iran partially reopened the Strait for non-hostile traffic during a ceasefire, but US officials and Trump insist the blockade remains in full force until a deal is reached. This ambiguity caused market volatility and a
Saudi Arabia publicly urged the United States to lift the blockade to avoid regional escalation;
May 31 drops to 27%7%
the appeal failed to produce a U.S. announcement, pushing odds lower
President Trump rejects Iran's proposal to open the Strait in exchange for lifting the blockade, emphasizing continuation until nuclear demands are met;
June 30 plunges to 12%19%
aides directed to prepare for prolonged blockade, reinforcing expectations of no near-term lift
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard re‑asserts strict military control of the strait and warns vessels will be targeted;
May 15 dips to 6%4%
Vice‑President J.D. Vance says the U.S. will maintain the blockade
US returns seized Iranian ship Touska amid ongoing blockade enforcement and Project Freedom operations, signaling tactical shifts but no blockade lift
May 15 rises to 22%2%
The return of the ship suggested some de-escalation but no official lifting, causing moderate market adjustment.
US announces an indefinite cease-fire permitting oil tankers to transit the strait but states the blockade “will remain in full force” until a deal is reached
May 15 drops to 11%9%
The cease-fire without lifting the blockade reduced market expectations for a May 15 announcement.
U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance stated the next move was Iran’s, reiterating that the U.S. would maintain the blockade
May 31 drops to 34%11%
U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance stated the next move was Iran’s, reiterating that the U.S. would maintain the blockade
US forces seize an Iranian-flagged tanker attempting to evade the blockade;
June 30 plunges to 14%34%
Iran captures two vessels in retaliation, escalating military tensions and reducing near-term prospects for lifting the blockade; Trump reiterates blockade will remain until a deal is reached
President Trump posts on Truth Social that the blockade will remain “in full force and effect” until a “100% complete” US-Iran deal is achieved, definitively signaling no lift
May 8 plunges to 1%29%
President Trump posts on Truth Social that the blockade will remain “in full force and effect” until a “100% complete” US-Iran deal is achieved, definitively signaling no lift before May 8
US forces seize an Iranian-flagged tanker attempting to evade the blockade, while Iran captures two vessels in retaliation, escalating military tensions and reducing likelihood of
May 31 plunges to 40%22%
US forces seize an Iranian-flagged tanker attempting to evade the blockade, while Iran captures two vessels in retaliation, escalating military tensions and reducing likelihood of a blockade lifting announcement soon. Trump reiterates the blockade will remain until a deal is reached, causing a sharp
U.S. announces an indefinite cease-fire that permits oil tankers to transit the strait while stating the blockade “will remain in full force” until a deal is reached, reinforcing
May 22 drops to 30%10%
U.S. announces an indefinite cease-fire that permits oil tankers to transit the strait while stating the blockade “will remain in full force” until a deal is reached, reinforcing expectations that no lifting announcement will come soon
Trump authorises the U.S. Navy to “shoot and kill” any boats laying mines and to target Iranian fast‑boats, heightening escalation and confirming the blockade will stay in place
May 15 drops to 8%5%
Trump authorises the U.S. Navy to “shoot and kill” any boats laying mines and to target Iranian fast‑boats, heightening escalation and confirming the blockade will stay in place
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift its Hormuz blockade amid fears of Houthi retaliation, adding diplomatic pressure on Washington
May 15 drops to 19%11%
International pressure introduced uncertainty, lowering the market’s confidence in a May 15 lift.
President Trump directs aides to prepare for a prolonged US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after failed peace talks and Iran’s refusal to meet US conditions, signaling low
May 22 drops to 30%14%
President Trump directs aides to prepare for a prolonged US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after failed peace talks and Iran’s refusal to meet US conditions, signaling low near-term prospects for lifting the blockade and pushing
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the US to lift the blockade to avoid regional escalation, but no US official statement indicates lifting, maintaining low market confidence
May 8 drops to 3%6%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the US to lift the blockade to avoid regional escalation, but no US official statement indicates lifting, maintaining low market confidence
White House spokesperson reiterates that the U.S.
June 30 drops to 59%12%
naval blockade remains “fully in effect” until a deal is reached, dampening lift‑expectations and pulling the
Market shows volatility with a peak at 37%-44% as traders react to reports of diplomatic efforts and US Central Command denials of Iranian attacks on US warships, but no official
May 22 surges to 44%27%
Market shows volatility with a peak at 37%-44% as traders react to reports of diplomatic efforts and US Central Command denials of Iranian attacks on US warships, but no official lifting announcement
Market reacts sharply (+31 points) after reports that President Trump rejects Iran’s demands for sanctions relief and insists on a full deal before lifting blockade
May 15 surges to 39%31%
Trump’s firm stance against lifting the blockade without a comprehensive deal boosted the probability temporarily.
US forces seize an Iranian-flagged tanker attempting to evade the blockade, while Iran captures two vessels in retaliation, escalating military tensions and reducing likelihood of
May 8 dips to 3%2%
US forces seize an Iranian-flagged tanker attempting to evade the blockade, while Iran captures two vessels in retaliation, escalating military tensions and reducing likelihood of a blockade lift announcement soon
No new official announcement of a blockade lift appears;
the continued absence of a qualifying statement keeps the “Yes”
Reports emerge that President Trump directs aides to prepare for a prolonged US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after failed peace talks and Iran’s refusal to meet US
May 31 surges to 62%35%
Reports emerge that President Trump directs aides to prepare for a prolonged US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after failed peace talks and Iran’s refusal to meet US conditions, signaling low near-term prospects for lifting the blockade. This news caused a
US forces seize an Iranian-flagged tanker attempting to evade the blockade, while Iran captures two vessels in retaliation, escalating military tensions and reducing likelihood of
US forces seize an Iranian-flagged tanker attempting to evade the blockade, while Iran captures two vessels in retaliation, escalating military tensions and reducing likelihood of a blockade lifting announcement soon
Iran’s foreign minister announces the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial traffic for the duration of a cease‑fire, and Trump posts on Truth Social that the waterway is “fully
June 30 surges to 71%15%
Iran’s foreign minister announces the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial traffic for the duration of a cease‑fire, and Trump posts on Truth Social that the waterway is “fully open and ready for business,” sparking optimism that the U.S. blockade could be lifted
The Guardian live‑blog notes Trump’s pause of the ship‑guidance effort and his statement that the blockade “will remain in full force and effect”
May 8 drops to 3%5%
The Guardian live‑blog notes Trump’s pause of the ship‑guidance effort and his statement that the blockade “will remain in full force and effect”
US forces seize an Iranian-flagged tanker attempting to evade the blockade, while Iran captures two vessels in retaliation, escalating military tensions
May 15 drops to 8%6%
Escalation and no sign of lifting the blockade caused a market dip.
President Trump launches "Project Freedom," directing the US Navy to guide stranded commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz while maintaining the blockade, signaling partial
June 30 drops to 48%8%
President Trump launches "Project Freedom," directing the US Navy to guide stranded commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz while maintaining the blockade, signaling partial reopening but no full lift yet
Trump announces "Project Freedom" to guide neutral commercial ships through the Strait while maintaining the blockade on Iranian ports, clarifying the blockade remains in full
May 8 dips to 4%2%
Trump announces "Project Freedom" to guide neutral commercial ships through the Strait while maintaining the blockade on Iranian ports, clarifying the blockade remains in full effect
President Trump launches "Project Freedom," directing the US Navy to guide stranded commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz while maintaining the blockade on Iranian ports.
May 31 rises to 37%3%
This partial reopening for non-Iranian traffic caused mixed market reactions
President Trump announces "Project Freedom," directing the US Navy to guide stranded commercial ships through the Strait while maintaining the blockade on Iranian ports,
May 22 dips to 14%4%
President Trump announces "Project Freedom," directing the US Navy to guide stranded commercial ships through the Strait while maintaining the blockade on Iranian ports, indicating a partial reopening but no full lift, keeping market confidence low
U.S. officials warn that congressional approval will be needed to extend the blockade past the May 1 War Powers Resolution deadline, underscoring that no lift has been announced
U.S. officials warn that congressional approval will be needed to extend the blockade past the May 1 War Powers Resolution deadline, underscoring that no lift has been announced and that the operation is set to continue
Trump posts on Truth Social that “Project Freedom” will be paused for a short period while negotiations progress, again stressing the blockade remains in effect
May 8 dips to 8%4%
Trump posts on Truth Social that “Project Freedom” will be paused for a short period while negotiations progress, again stressing the blockade remains in effect
President Trump launches "Project Freedom," directing the US Navy to guide neutral commercial ships through the Strait while maintaining the blockade on Iranian ports
May 15 jumps to 16%5%
Partial reopening for non-Iranian traffic created some optimism, causing a brief
US issues warnings to shipping firms against paying Iranian tolls and enforces strict blockade measures, signaling no near-term lifting of the blockade
May 8 drops to 4%5%
US issues warnings to shipping firms against paying Iranian tolls and enforces strict blockade measures, signaling no near-term lifting of the blockade
Trump posts on Truth Social that the blockade will stay “in full force and effect” until a “100 % complete” U.S.–Iran transaction is achieved, reinforcing market belief that a
May 8 dips to 5%3%
Trump posts on Truth Social that the blockade will stay “in full force and effect” until a “100 % complete” U.S.–Iran transaction is achieved, reinforcing market belief that a lift before May 8 is unlikely
US issues warnings to shipping firms against paying Iranian tolls for passage through the Strait, signaling strict enforcement of the blockade and reducing optimism for lifting by
May 22 drops to 17%11%
US issues warnings to shipping firms against paying Iranian tolls for passage through the Strait, signaling strict enforcement of the blockade and reducing optimism for lifting by May 22
U.S. officials warn shipping firms not to pay Iranian tolls, reinforcing strict enforcement of the blockade
May 15 drops to 11%5%
U.S. officials warn shipping firms not to pay Iranian tolls, reinforcing strict enforcement of the blockade
Trump’s Truth Social post reiterates that the blockade “will remain in full force” until Tehran reaches a deal, providing a definitive official statement that the blockade is not
May 22 drops to 16%10%
Trump’s Truth Social post reiterates that the blockade “will remain in full force” until Tehran reaches a deal, providing a definitive official statement that the blockade is not being lifted
The White House warned shipping firms not to pay Iranian “tolls,” reinforcing strict enforcement and dampening hopes of a lift
May 31 plunges to 45%15%
The White House warned shipping firms not to pay Iranian “tolls,” reinforcing strict enforcement and dampening hopes of a lift
US issues warnings to shipping firms against paying Iranian tolls, signaling strict enforcement of the blockade amid stalled diplomacy.
May 31 drops to 54%10%
This reinforced expectations of a prolonged blockade, contributing to
US Central Command clarifies blockade enforcement targets vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports but not those transiting to non-Iranian ports, firming market confidence in blockade continuation
May 15 drops to 13%7%
This operational detail reinforced the blockade's persistence, pushing
U.S. Central Command issues a statement confirming continued enforcement of the blockade and no indication of an upcoming lift
May 8 dips to 8%3%
U.S. Central Command issues a statement confirming continued enforcement of the blockade and no indication of an upcoming lift
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation and Houthi retaliation, highlighting growing diplomatic pressure but no U.S.
May 22 dips to 26%2%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation and Houthi retaliation, highlighting growing diplomatic pressure but no U.S. lift announcement
Trump announces “Project Freedom,” a U.S.
May 8 drops to 12%10%
operation to guide stranded ships out of the Strait of Hormuz, but makes clear the blockade itself is unchanged
U.S. Central Command confirms the blockade continues “impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports,” and states that ships transiting to
May 22 dips to 26%4%
U.S. Central Command confirms the blockade continues “impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports,” and states that ships transiting to non‑Iranian ports are still allowed
No official US government or President Trump announcement lifting the blockade is made by the deadline, confirming market expectations and driving
April 30 dips to 0%3%
No official US government or President Trump announcement lifting the blockade is made by the deadline, confirming market expectations and driving
Trump reiterates that the U.S. blockade “will remain in full force and effect” in a Truth Social post, despite earlier talk of opening the strait
May 8 plunges to 30%22%
Trump reiterates that the U.S. blockade “will remain in full force and effect” in a Truth Social post, despite earlier talk of opening the strait
CNBC reports Trump’s statement that the blockade will stay until Iran agrees to a nuclear deal, underscoring no imminent lift
May 8 drops to 22%8%
CNBC reports Trump’s statement that the blockade will stay until Iran agrees to a nuclear deal, underscoring no imminent lift
President Trump orders US Navy to "shoot and kill" any boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and triples mine-clearing efforts, signaling escalation and no intention to lift
May 31 plunges to 16%44%
President Trump orders US Navy to "shoot and kill" any boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and triples mine-clearing efforts, signaling escalation and no intention to lift blockade soon. This hardened stance contributed to a
Iran reverses reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, resuming its blockade and firing on ships attempting passage after the US refuses to lift its blockade of Iranian ports.
May 31 plunges to 38%22%
This escalated tensions and caused a market plunge
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation, highlighting diplomatic pressure on Trump
May 8 drops to 11%11%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation, highlighting diplomatic pressure on Trump
President Trump announces immediate US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after failed peace talks in Islamabad, imposing restrictions on Iranian ports and shipping to
President Trump announces immediate US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after failed peace talks in Islamabad, imposing restrictions on Iranian ports and shipping to pressure Tehran. This initial announcement set the market near 49%-60% Yes as traders reacted to the new blockade
President Trump orders US Navy to "shoot and kill" any boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and triples mine-clearing efforts, signaling escalation and no intention to lift
May 22 plunges to 16%44%
President Trump orders US Navy to "shoot and kill" any boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and triples mine-clearing efforts, signaling escalation and no intention to lift blockade soon. This hardened stance contributed to a
Trump directed aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade, confirming the measure would stay in force beyond the 60‑day War Powers limit
May 31 drops to 60%14%
Trump directed aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade, confirming the measure would stay in force beyond the 60‑day War Powers limit
Trump publicly rejects Iran’s offer to reopen the strait and says the blockade will remain “in full force” until a deal is reached
May 15 drops to 10%10%
Trump publicly rejects Iran’s offer to reopen the strait and says the blockade will remain “in full force” until a deal is reached
Trump orders U.S. Navy to “shoot and kill” any Iranian boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, tripling mine‑clearing operations and confirming the blockade will stay in force
June 30 plunges to 56%15%
Trump orders U.S. Navy to “shoot and kill” any Iranian boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, tripling mine‑clearing operations and confirming the blockade will stay in force
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announces the Strait of Hormuz is fully closed until the U.S.
May 22 plunges to 30%30%
blockade is lifted, warning vessels that any approach will be treated as hostile
President Trump rejects Iran’s proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the blockade, stating the blockade will continue until Tehran meets US nuclear
May 8 plunges to 10%42%
President Trump rejects Iran’s proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the blockade, stating the blockade will continue until Tehran meets US nuclear demands, reinforcing expectations of a prolonged blockade
Reports confirm sanctioned tankers continue to pass through the Strait despite the blockade, exposing enforcement gaps but no official lifting announcement.
April 30 dips to 3%3%
Traders interpret this as erosion of blockade effectiveness but not a formal end, pushing
President Trump directs aides to prepare for an extended blockade, underscoring a strategy of sustained pressure on Iran amid stalled diplomacy and no lifting announcement.
April 30 drops to 6%7%
This official preparation for prolonging the blockade further reduced market confidence in lifting by April 30
Reports confirm President Trump directs aides to prepare for a prolonged US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after peace talks collapse and Iran rejects partial reopening offers
May 15 drops to 26%13%
The official preparation for extended blockade enforcement lowered expectations for an early lift.
President Trump tells aides to prepare for a prolonged U.S.
May 15 jumps to 39%5%
naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, signalling no near‑term lift
President Trump orders US Navy to "shoot and kill" any boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and triples mine-clearing efforts, signaling escalation and no intention to lift blockade soon
May 15 drops to 22%12%
This hardened US military stance after failed peace talks indicated a prolonged blockade, reducing market optimism for a May 15 lift.
Iran offers to reopen the Strait if the US lifts its blockade and ends the war, but Trump and US officials reject the offer as insufficient, maintaining blockade conditions.
April 30 drops to 13%11%
This diplomatic stalemate pushed market odds lower
Trump ordered the Navy to “shoot and kill” any boats laying mines in the strait and tripled mine‑clearing operations, signalling no imminent lift
May 31 drops to 74%6%
Trump ordered the Navy to “shoot and kill” any boats laying mines in the strait and tripled mine‑clearing operations, signalling no imminent lift
President Trump orders US Navy to "shoot and kill" any boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and triples mine-clearing efforts, signaling escalation and no intention to lift
April 30 drops to 16%12%
President Trump orders US Navy to "shoot and kill" any boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and triples mine-clearing efforts, signaling escalation and no intention to lift blockade soon. This hardened stance contributed to further
U.S. announces an indefinite cease‑fire that permits oil tankers to transit the strait while stating the blockade “will remain in full force” until a deal is reached
May 8 drops to 5%6%
U.S. announces an indefinite cease‑fire that permits oil tankers to transit the strait while stating the blockade “will remain in full force” until a deal is reached
Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz again after US maintains blockade;
April 30 plunges to 38%30%
Iranian Foreign Minister had briefly declared it open tied to a ceasefire, but the US refusal to lift blockade led to reclosure, causing market uncertainty and a sharp
US forces seize an Iranian-flagged tanker attempting to evade the blockade, reinforcing US enforcement and signaling no imminent lifting.
April 30 drops to 50%10%
This action likely contributed to a
U.S. Navy seized an Iranian‑flagged tanker attempting to evade the blockade;
May 31 rises to 80%3%
Iran captured two U.S.‑linked vessels in retaliation
Iran reverses reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, resuming its blockade and firing on ships attempting passage, after the US refuses to lift its blockade of Iranian ports.
April 30 plunges to 38%25%
Trump confirms the US blockade remains fully in effect, escalating tensions and reducing odds of a near-term lifting
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard again closes the strait and threatens vessels, signalling that any U.S. lift would be moot
May 8 drops to 22%9%
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard again closes the strait and threatens vessels, signalling that any U.S. lift would be moot
Iran re‑imposed strict military control of the strait, firing on two Indian‑flagged ships and stating the waterway would stay closed until the U.S. lifts its blockade
May 31 drops to 77%6%
Iran re‑imposed strict military control of the strait, firing on two Indian‑flagged ships and stating the waterway would stay closed until the U.S. lifts its blockade
Iran announces full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but Trump reiterates the U.S.
May 8 plunges to 31%21%
blockade will remain in effect
Iran announces full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz;
May 8 plunges to 31%21%
Trump replies on Truth Social that the naval blockade “will remain in full force” despite the opening
Iranian FM Seyed Abbas Araghchi declared the strait “completely open” for the cease‑fire;
May 31 rises to 83%4%
Trump praised the opening on Truth Social, but warned the blockade would remain
Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine said U.S.
May 31 dips to 79%2%
forces would “actively pursue any Iranian‑flagged vessel…providing material support to Iran,” underscoring continued enforcement
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift its Hormuz blockade amid fears of Houthi retaliation, adding diplomatic pressure on Washington
May 8 plunges to 11%20%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift its Hormuz blockade amid fears of Houthi retaliation, adding diplomatic pressure on Washington
President Donald Trump announced the U.S.
May 31 surges to 81%33%
naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, effective immediately after peace talks collapsed
President Donald Trump announces immediate US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks with Iran in Islamabad, imposing restrictions on Iranian ports
May 31 jumps to 60%12%
President Donald Trump announces immediate US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks with Iran in Islamabad, imposing restrictions on Iranian ports and shipping to pressure Tehran. This initial announcement set the market near 49%-60% Yes as traders reacted to the new blockade
President Trump announces immediate US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks with Iran in Islamabad, imposing restrictions on Iranian ports and
April 30 jumps to 60%11%
President Trump announces immediate US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks with Iran in Islamabad, imposing restrictions on Iranian ports and shipping to pressure Tehran. This initial announcement set the market near 49%-60% Yes as traders
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